forwoodenboats's Comments

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:32:45 -0400

"***Just look at our national debt as a relation to GDP. The combine it with the consumer debt in relation to income.*** And then housing prices in relation to income has only corrected back to close to the norm...certainly not below."

The banks know that all these trillions for Porkulus, International (they have removed all current citizen verification checks, then voted down an (R) sponsored amendment to put them back) socialized health care, supporting terrorists (120 million for Hamas alone), Porkulus 2 (already being talked about, will it be written by the same self described communist Green Czar that wrote the last one?) not to mention repaying the Chinese (has the "transparent" govt. in history revealed the principle amount and terms for repayment?) are going to crush any chance of a legitimate recovery.
They are raising rates and slicing credit limits.
They know that there's only so long we can keep on piling on debt.
They know we will have to borrow money to make payments on borrowed money.
Look at California for the "recovery" that awaits us.
Their house of cards imploded, and the Fed probably has too - they're just not going to tell anyone until after the 2010 elections.

On Aug 28 08:32 AM dual cit wrote:

> This is like saying we are having great weather for the size of the
> town. Show us some real numbers. Just look at our national debt as
> a relation to GDP. The combine it with the consumer debt in relation
> to income. And then housing prices in relation to income has only
> corrected back to close to the norm...certainly not below. Commercial
> real estate has yet to hit the fan. Retailer J Crew has announced
> they are focusing on the catalog rather than opening more box stores.
> No...sorry Jason, I think we are simply recovering from extreme oversold
> levels. But what is going to drive it higher. John Mauldin has been
> right all along...we are in for a "muddle through econony"

Fannie and Freddie: Finally a Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 20:54:47 -0400

I'm a little confused here, maybe someone could help me out.
Why are Freddie and Fannie still trading? Doesn't the government own it now? Same with WAMU - it was trading today after the government confiscated it and sold it to someone else. Obviously they'd been thinking about it, yet there was no warning - at 3:47 I bought 5k shares @ 1.69, sold them 12 minutes later for 1.77...but only because my buy orders for 20K @ 1.55 didn't go through and I needed to go grocery shopping - and there was an angel on my shoulder, PTL.
I come back from shopping and O M G.....they were close to 5 bucks about a week ago.
Are they going to trade tomorow? Why, or why not?

The Dummy's Guide to the U.S. Financial Crisis

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:17:53 -0400

Obviously this "deal" had to die. It was filled with pork, including the professional vote fraud machine (that Obama used to represent) ACORN getting up to 20% of the funds.
It would have subsidized mortgages for those who can't afford them for up to 40 years;
publicmarkup.org/bill/.../
And it's an unlimited line of revolving credit - 700 billion is just the start.
This is a full fledged attempt to turn this country into a socialist one under the guise of "bailing us out".
What are they bailing us out of? A disaster that started in 1977 - as quazzy1 noted, "It started with the Community Reinvestment Act in 1977, which was substantially strengthened in 1995 by Cuomo and Clinton."
Banks were required to lend money to people who couldn't afford to pay it back. Fannie & Freddie would bundle these worthless mortgages into equities and sell them on the stock market. They consistantly cooked the books, but got away with it with help from a steady stream of crooked dem CEOs such as Jamie Gorelick, of 911 fame for putting up the wall between the FBI and CIA
www.freerepublic.com/f...
virginiavirtucon.wordp.../
who made about 26 million, Obama advisors Frank Raines www.ofheo.gov/media/pd....
and Jim Johnson
Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008

Name Office Party/State Total

1. Dodd, Christopher J S D-CT $133,900

2. Kerry, John S D-MA $111,000

3. Obama, Barack S D-IL $105,849

4. Clinton, Hillary S D-NY $75,550

5. Kanjorski, Paul E H D-PA $65,500

Barney Frank had his hand on Fannies.....
Democratic House Financial Services Committee Chair promoted GSEs while former 'spouse' was Fannie Mae executive
www.businessandmedia.o...

And there's one question I have - if WAMU and the F team has been sold/confiscated, why are they still trading?

The McClatchy Company Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:03:00 -0400

MNI...Didn't they install the diving board at the La Brea Tar Pits so that they and the rest of the Marxist rags on the Dinosaur Death Watch could make a big splash on their way out?
MNI.PK...has a nice ring to it, don't you think?

Houston to Obama: Smell the Oil

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:15:33 -0400

Good, informative response, Saul.
Thanks

WaMu Borrower Purposely Defaults, Gets Foreclosed On, Sues

Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:11:40 -0400

It always amazes me how people will sell their integrity for a few thousand bucks. Granted, lots of hard working people who pride themselves on never being late on a payment can suddenly find themselves flat broke, especially if they live paycheck to paycheck as many of us do most of our lives.
The ones who are taking advantage of the system, the 'me too's anytime they hear of a handout should be made to pay restitution plus 100% fine in addition, to help out some honest, productive family that really needs the help.
I don't have enough fingers and toes to count all the people I've met who considered credit card bankruptcies a right - one girl my brother couldn't seem to shake ran up over $200K and never paid back a dime, and my ex chiropracter strongly suggested I default on the credit cards I used to fund much of a couple years of college not long ago (algebra really sucks in your late 40s if you never took it before!), but I was wearing a grin he'll never understand when I paid off the last one.
He said that he and all his friends default, often twice, and they all had good jobs and weren't hurting for money.
They considered it a right, he said, and so should I.
I also had a right to never put another penny in his pocket, and never did, other than that visit's check.....you know he would have been the 1st one to come after me if I cancelled it!

Houston to Obama: Smell the Oil

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 17:03:22 -0400

Thanks for the links, Saul.
It appears there was, during times of war - 1st enacted in 1863 by the Confederate Army (Slave Owning Southern Democrats, what a surprise!) - and the government later experimented with taxing companies who were either profiteering off the war(s) or at other times when an entity was making in excess of a set standard, neither of which are relevant in this case.
The government has not set a standard for excess profits, so they have no standing to use that as a reason. Indeed, there are many companies and individuals which operate on a much higher margin - look at the gain in income percentage for the Obamas and Clintons lately - Both O and Ms O had their income increase over 100% in one year, Mr. C suddenly made 20 million for God knows what in Dubai, and where in the world did Ms C pop up with 5 million to lend her campaign on her salary?
In short, the Excess Profit Tax did not set a precedent for attacking one industry whilst leaving other, more profitable industries alone when it was in effect (AFAIK), and there is no EPT in this country at this time.
I look forward to the rest of your answers - especially if you care to address the obvious market manipulation factors.
Whether this market manipulation is strictly for political power plays, fame or for fortune could be considered irrelevant, as it is without a doubt intended to interfere with and harm the oil companies, and the American Citizens (and maybe even some Citizens of the World) who own them.

Houston to Obama: Smell the Oil

Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:35:26 -0400

Saul, while I appreciate you taking the time to explain yourself, I am still completely at odds with your position on "windfall taxes", or whatever you want to call them.
The context the term is being used in by Hillary, Obama, and the vast majority of the Democrat party is one of confiscation of capital and of nationalization of refineries.
This is exactly what Communist leaders like Hugo Chavez and totalitarian dictators such as Saddam Hussein have done. I don't know if Castro had an oil well or refinery, but he "freed" his people of their possesions as soon as he had the political power to do so.
If you want to take the time to give a dissertation on the semantics of the name these politicians have affixed to confiscating personal property, have at it.
You say "Windfall profit tax" is an incorrect term, yet it is the one you used, and in the same context as the one the D candidates and both D sides of their respective houses of congress are using to demonize American companies, affix the blame for the current crisis on these companies when it is and was clearly the fault of the democrat leadership that caused this shortage, then add insult to injury by trying to raise political capital from this heinous deceit by confiscating American Investor held funds, and redistribute them as political gifts to potential voters in the heat of a presidential election.
Can you not see where arbitrarily suggesting that one oil industry company might be ripe for a windfall profit tax in the heated environment caused by these 2 pandering candidates and thier majority collegues might result in a clubbing?
BTW, please quote your source for "excess profit tax being reserved for wartime, etc."

Analyzing Chevron's Q2 Earnings

Sun, 10 Aug 2008 22:05:45 -0400

Jegan, when you're done with the anti big oil speech and have put away your soapbox, would you mind reading the article before you?
How does their $22.9 billion exploration plan turn into "reducing investment in drilling and buying back shares" once it's richochet'd about the inside of your skull?
You make it sound as if Ried & Pelosi's refusal to allow drilling where there are KNOWN reserves is actually a plot by the oil companies to control the price.
The fact that oil companies operate on smaller margins than many companies that never need exploration nor the continued risk of $billions in capital that goes along with it somehow never gets mentioned as the Democrat Hoax soaks up one sap after another.
Chris Wallace brought up the fact that there are many companies making much more money, on a much higher margin in an interview with Dick Durbin today. Durbin stared straight ahead at the teleprompter, refusing to address Wallace's assertions, and continued to rattle on his wildly innacurate speech.
How Chris could hope to interview a beanbag like Durbin I'll never know.

Houston to Obama: Smell the Oil

Sun, 10 Aug 2008 18:43:52 -0400

Saul, you wrote what you wanted to say, which was

"Pundits are likely to conclude that there is room here for a windfall tax and I would be inclined to agree. Obviously, there is not enough competition in the rig business."

By your OWN words, you clearly buy the "windfall profits tax" scam, AND state a sample of the criteria by which this confiscation would be found agreeable.

There's nothing opaque with your writing, you're just in the wrong country is all. You should be writing for Pravda, or some other government nationalized rag.

Houston to Obama: Smell the Oil

Sat, 09 Aug 2008 20:19:22 -0400

Saul, you start off with some good points, but then you pick a company that you do think would be eligible for "windfall taxes", i.e., confiscation of personal property without just compensation.
WTH gives you the right to judge who's property gets confiscated, the right to arbitrarily concoct a formula based on your personal whim, and the authority to discern it's relative morality?

We know why the odd couple of Hillary & Obama (for clarity purposes, we'll just refer to them as "HO") want to confiscate money from the shareholders of energy companies and gift it to people who didn't earn it --> HO wants to buy voters with other people's money.

This isn't anything new, and if HO can get away with it now, HO's tentacles will pillage any company, anytime, for no other reason than the company these shareholders invested their hard earned after tax dollars survived the competition, the military attacks on equipement and personel such as those ongoing in Nigeria & the ME, and the childish whims and pandering of Democrat Socialists in Congress.

Were you to be put in charge of deciding which shareholders to attack, who would be the next 1,000 or so companies would you deem meets your criteria to pillage after RIM?

If HO is going to send a gift wrapped $1,000 to every middle class & below resident paid for by a shareholder, you're going to have to extend this out WAY past the oil industry.

For instance, Chevron (CVX), of which both my son and I are investors in, only has 215,000 shareholders. They had a relatively good 2nd quarter, even if they are down 15% since the talk of confiscating - or in the words of Maxine Waters - "Socialising, Nationalizing" gained steam. If you confiscate 1 HO present from each shareholder, that's going to be a drop in the bucket!

Why, for HO to be successful, you'd need 1,000 compaines the size of Chevron, and there's only 3 in the US that are larger - what are you going to do? What ARE you going to do?

Just do me a favor, Saul. When you and HO decide how many vote buying HO gifts my son and I are going to have to pay for, can you at least send me a little picture of where my HO gifts went, what country they're from, and which HO member campaigns they donated my HO gift to?

WaMu and More: Uninsured Depositors Begging for Trouble

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:13:35 -0400

I agree the author of this sensationalist "piece" of work is trying to create a run on the bank.
Otherwise he would have posted the rest of the article he was qouting, rather than cherry picking the worst part, knowing that most people don't bother reading past the headlines, much less follow the link to see if there is any data that might balance out the article and Shedlock's anonymous joker "AJ".
The rest of the story;

``As we stated publicly months ago, WaMu funds all of its business through its banking operations and does not rely on commercial paper,'' the company said in an e-mailed response.

Cash Infusion

Chief Executive Officer Kerry Killinger has said the $7 billion cash infusion led by TPG Inc., coupled with plans to save $1 billion annually by trimming the mortgage business, gives the lender enough money to ride out the U.S. housing slump. The decline in federal funds purchased on WaMu's balance sheet may be the result of the company using cash to prefund short-term maturities and not creditors withdrawing money, which suggests it didn't need to borrow in the Fed Funds market, WaMu said.

WaMu slid 62 cents, or 13 percent, to $4.03 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock fell 20 percent yesterday and has lost 90 percent of its value in the past year.

Some 335 million WaMu shares changed hands, more than eight times the daily average over the past year, according to Bloomberg data. The stock has moved at least 10 percent nine times in the past three weeks.

Credit-Default Swaps

Credit-default swap sellers demanded 14 percentage points upfront and 5 percentage points a year to protect WaMu bonds from default for five years, up from 7.3 percentage points a year yesterday, according to CMA Datavision.

That means it would cost $1.4 million initially and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million in bonds. Yesterday, that would have cost $730,000 a year without an upfront payment. Protection sellers start demanding upfront payments when the risk of an imminent default increases.

Credit-default swaps were conceived to protect bondholders against default, and pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should the company fail to adhere to its debt agreements.

Analysts at Piper Jaffray Cos., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. said after WaMu's earnings report that it may need to raise more cash. According to a clause in the TPG agreement, if WaMu raises more than $500 million in equity at less than $8.75 a share within 18 months, it must compensate TPG for the difference.

Standard & Poor's said WaMu has the liquidity to meet obligations without raising more funds through 2012. Analysts at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and UBS AG also said the company should have enough capital.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ari Levy in San Francisco at alevy5@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 24, 2008 17:34 EDT

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:19:02 -0400

No, the only things that has garnered any interest is that ETFC missed the median range by 5 cents and duly noted there is still some risk on the bank side.
The rest of the story, as Paul Harvey would say, tells a starkly different picture.
The conference call is worth the approx. hour to listen to. There's some interesting dialogue, such as concerning the sale of Etrade Canada.
One fellow had run the numbers on that and asked for verification as the sale appeared to be very much in parent Etrade's favor.
His numbers were correct. Etrade did very well on that sale.
Message ~ Etrade is not having a fire sale. They got top dollar for an asset that would have had minimal impact on income. I don't have a number, but I'm pretty sure Etrade Canada didn't account for a third of the parent's income - there's only so many people there, and their govt. doesn't leave 'em much change to invest. Yet, the price they paid reflects about one third Etrade's market cap.
The progress they've made during this national crisis is proof they were fast on their feet and did a spectacular job of minimizing exposure.
Instead of making excuses, they displayed difinitive actions which allowed them to show growth over last year, just a few months after the analysts were predicting their imminent demise.
I think the shareholders (of which I am one) and customers (ditto) have a great team working for us.
Combined with the undisputed premium product, I think this company deserves a vote of confidence.

Newspapers 'Rightsizing'? More Like Frightsizing

Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:51:58 -0400

"I think most papers are happy to lose readers to the web ... "
LOL, spoken like a true "blue" economist!
I'm sure their investors would have appreciated some advance notice before they drove the company headfirst into the ground!
Facts are, if someone wants hyperpartisan editorials, they have a plethora of opportunities out there without having all that hate screaming out at them as they try to have a cup & a read to start the morning.
No one needs to have their news politicized for them, and McClatchy never learned that.
I'll never forget the fellow I worked with who sent out all his faxes with an image of Bill Clinton on a 3 dollar bill on top. I'm sure some of his clients found it humorous, but I suggested to him that he was certain to piss off at least 50% of every person he sent one to, and an unknown percentage who thought it was tasteless or misplaced.
McClatchy - and it's investors - would surely be in a different spot right now if it simply reported the news as it happened, rather than present a skewed, ultra left wing rant posing as the news.
But you go ahead and make excuses for McClatchy, and while you're at it, step on up and buy some stock!
(They're having a "going out of business sale". You can get all you want dirt cheap).

Newspapers 'Rightsizing'? More Like Frightsizing

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:29:31 -0400

The reason McClatchy, the NYT, LAT, and WaPo are inevitably going bancrupt is very simple.
They abandoned the truth and embraced the far left and all its lies.
We are able to fact check now, and where we weren't when Walter Cronkite told us the Tet Offensive was a huge defeat for the United States, we were able to find that Harry Reid was lying when he told us we lost the war in Iraq.
The drive by media bet against the citizens of the United States being able to sniff out it's bias and they lost.
Take a look at McClatchy's chart - as the papers they own here in Washington state have have moved further to the left, lionizing our enemies while demonizing defenders, failing to report our state government's overspending while supporting socialist goals, attacking anything or anyone conservative along with our rights, so has gone their stock, from mid 70s to just over 5 buck in 3 short years.
I think it was just about 3 years ago that McClatchy added its hyperpartisan news.McClatchyHeadline... column to the Tacoma News Tribune.
Coincidence? No, I predicted it when they out left'd the left coast and I've been enjoying watching this part of the Dinosaur Death Watch ever since. This is one company that truly deserves to sink back into the primordial goo that it built it's glass house on.

E*Trade's 'First In, First Out' Position: Yes, 111M Shorts Can Be Wrong

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 23:13:16 -0400

122,527,895 short per today's report, probably more like 130m judging by the downward pressure, especially today's.
If etfc meets or beats -.15eps for this quarter, we could have a 6 day party.

Bush's New Drilling Proposal: Fixing a Hole

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 22:58:01 -0400

Perhaps Mr. Ausick will perform a little DD before he lays his next egg....
energytomorrow.org/Abo.../

Bush's New Drilling Proposal: Fixing a Hole

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 18:16:03 -0400

"Let's examine each of these briefly"
This is easily the least researched/thought out article I've read on this site.
The author doesn't state where he got ANY of his data from; the "10 years" to develop a well in areas where oil is literally bubbling out of the ground, he completely skips the trillions of gallons of natural gas which is at the ready right now on the North Slope, offshore, and in numerous other places.
Not only has he done ZERO due dilligence on his stated topic, he has ZERO understanding of geopolitical pressures, and sadly misled on the Gorebull warming scam.
I live in Washington State (moonbat central), and we've broken most records for cold temperatures back to the 1930's this year.
Remember Mt. St. Helens? The glacier that caps it is growing at such high rate that it is expected to grow back to it's original height - even though it's still dribbling lava out the top.
There's been 3,000 scientific robots plying the worlds oceans since 2003 searching the world's oceans looking for evidence the oceans are warming - can't find any, so the new theory is that the "heat is going deep" www.npr.org/templates/...
uh huh.
Granted, the earth has been slowly warming for many thousands of years, but there is ZERO evidence it has anything to do with us.
The answer is to stop destroying our economy for purely political reasons, let the oil companies do their job without all this BS, and let the alternative energy companies do their business with no more or no less subsidies that any energy company would realize.

Metrics, Mortgages and Analysts

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 12:06:32 -0400

jbmaria, please take your ghetto mouth somewhere else. If you feel the data you've presented (crickets chirping) is more comprehensive and your analytical skills (oops, you left those on the bus, too) are superior to Cindy's by all means start publishing them.
Just grab a stapler and go find yourself a few telephone poles......

S&P Upgrades E*Trade Despite Struggling Financial Sector Peers

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 21:10:14 -0400

"However, the pricing is not so good"
"The only reason I have not switched is because I am so used to ETFC."
So, $7.99 trades with a guaranteed 2 second execution is a bad thing, right?
LMAO

Countrywide's FHLB Bailout

Sat, 14 Jun 2008 00:33:48 -0400

Well, I don't know the FHFB from Fun Bags, and I sure didn't learn anything from Roubini's article other than he's a testy little socialist trying to pretend he's not.
His whole article is vitriolic mumbo jumbo, and I don't need to (and can't, don't have WSJ account) read Schumer's to know he's on the "nationalize every thing we can find an excuse for" bus that's been driving congress.
I'd like to see Felix follow up on this, and get some more informative, factual comments such as chungst and Steve posted.

E*Trade's 'First In, First Out' Position: Yes, 111M Shorts Can Be Wrong

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 21:06:09 -0400

Magman, I don't see how Cindy's capitalization of the word FREE should spook you when it is accurately applied to a new, innovative trading platform THAT NO OTHER BROKERAGE HAS.
Think about it a minute. Anything that entices investors to make more trades during the day AND steals investors away from other brokerages (why stay with a brokerage that isn't keeping up with technology?) has got to be a great money maker.
How many more trades might you make every month if you knew that you could pull out a blackberry & check on your bet/make another while you're at the tavern, mother in law's or the loo?
The blackberry is just one of the tools that are making things easier and faster for etrade customers - have you checked out Power Etrade Pro? I just today opened that puppy up- it's like comparing Jay Leno's jet powered motorcycle to a BigWheel.
The fact is, Etrade's platform makes trading easier, it's faster, cheaper, and the data you need to do your DD is at your fingertips.
It's really hard to overstate the importance of keeping up with the Joneses in the internet brokerage business, especially at a time when people are jonesing over their investments (Always!).

Yahoo's Google Ad Deal: Salvation or Mistake?

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 04:55:02 -0400

"Sometimes it’s not easy being an activist billionaire."
It wasn't easy having patience watching my short position spin contrary to where I ascertained it should have, not having a clue that numerous billionaires were buying entire weeks worth of trades.
It was, however, very sweet covering the last 1/3 at $2.37 difference, the rest a little bit less as I slowly backed away from a surreal Battle of the Belligerents.
It's still hard to conceive that YHOO ever went above 28, with no deal on the table, based on a previous but now dead offer @ 31 mixed cash & stock w/little details.
Sometimes it's satisfying to let the neighborhood car chasing dog catch up (suddenly), especially if you end up with more than enough money to buy a new bumper.

E*Trade's 'First In, First Out' Position: Yes, 111M Shorts Can Be Wrong

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 05:27:53 -0400

Though I already had my position (the latest of many from 5 down to 2.18 & back up) established before I read Cindy's article, its always fun to sort through message board postings. It's not as colorful as in 2000-01 discussing OTC stocks on Raging Bull (as an ETrade customer, for what little its worth), but the same flags mean the same things.
On one side, multiple posts by a few individuals waving red flags trying to deflect attention from a comprehensive assessment and into a discussion about how other stocks in the sector are faring - as long as they're not doing well - and avoid directly taking on any of the DD Cindy provided, while trying to attack her instead.
One the other side, some folks who think this stock is going to go up, while acknowledging it's still a risk, one that they're ready to take.
And then there's that S&P upgrade.
I've been waiting for this dip :)