jimmy smith

China Mobile: Dialing for Dividends

the stock would be a good buy in around $48/ADR (close to today's prices)... IF... it was based in the US. but since its based in China, you've got to have some type of "Chinese discount" due to the political risks.

it was just last year that the gov came into CHL and decided to willy-nilly "rotate" CEO's amongst the various phone companies! an unheard of activity observed in the West. can you see the results? yes! CHL's stock has stagnated while its rivals have surged.

due to this kind of governmental tampering, i'd want a sizable margin of safety to invest in this firm. i'd be a buyer in the low 40's.

Why This Is Just Another Bear Market Rally

i don't believe in attacking somebody for who they are (19 yr old Finance major). it is whether what they say is logical and factual or not. not how old they are!

however, in this case the author forgets that unemployment is a lagging indicator.

i also like the fact that he's out there - more wall of worry money to come back into the market when they understand that we've truly bottomed this time.

The Three Riskiest Banks - American Banker

One thing: TCE is important (much more relevant to equity holders than Tier 1) but what's really important is how that balances against the types of assets the bank holds on (and off!) its balance sheet. Some banks with really conservative underwriting (and no toxic assets) can survive with lower TCE, and vise versa.

So, you must scrutinize the quality of the loans and other assets. TCE is just one important data point, but not the whole picture. For example, I'm not sure you should be buying JPM on the basis of its TCE because its got a boat load of nastiness on the balance sheet which'll be hitting TCE pretty hard in the upcoming quarters.

Liquidity and Capital Calls at the Yale Endowment

a lot of the private equity held companies will be zeros due to massive debt loads. therefor the collage endowments will be utterly crushed this year. i'm predicting they'll drop upwards of 60% on average.

one issue: due to the ill-liquidity of these (and others!, read: forests) how with the endowments market the losses? probably they'll attempt to hide them ("mark to whatever allows us to save face and maintain donations, administrator jobs and high salaries").

Five Apple Predictions for 2009

the author obviously didn't see this: biz.yahoo.com/ap/08121...

Bigger is Not Better in Banking

regarding JPM: if Whalen is correct and losses are 4% of loans (big if) and JPM is average (big if), then they'd loose $58B. JPM has $131B equity (not including the $11B they just raised or the $25B coming from Paulson), so i'm not sure how he sees them becoming insolvent.

personally, i think this guy is contracted by some funds who are/will be short. if he can scare enough investors he and the hedge funds could create a run on the bank. being short (whether in the CDS market, with Puts, and/or naked shorting the common), you'd make a lot of money...but they'd destroy an American institution in the process.

What Does Warren Buffett See in General Electric?

GE is really three businesses: a bank, an industrial, and NBC. To analyze the company you MUST examine each independently.

When you do this you see that GE's bank is extraordinarily conservative relative to other banks (1/7 leverage vs. 1/11 and higher for well capitalized banks).

You see that the industrial business is the best in the world, exhibiting the highest returns on assets and growth out there, with a excellent portfolio of businesses including everything from train engines, to water infrastructure which are going to be huge for the next several decades.

Then you've got NBC, while I think it has become an embarrassment to GE's name and should be spun off, it nevertheless is generates enormous amounts of free cash flow.

At $20 a share and a dividend yield of 6.2%, its a massive buy if you have a year or so time horizon.

SEC Considering 'Market-Wide' Short Sale Rule

its about time. enforcing the law, gee what a concept. everybody knows that the hedge funds control the sec and gov. at this point. they are huge pools of unregulated captial that can do anything the want. buy off pols in washington (you better believe it!), pile on small caps and destroy companies. you bet, its called "death by short". not enforcing the naked shorting rule is yet another example of how the gov looks out for the big guys against the little ones.

but but wait, if the companies didn't have probs already, then the shorts wouldn't be there. look: all companies have probs from time to time. naked shorting causes moral to drop, employees to leave, customers to scratch their heads and say "hmm, i better hold off buying from these guys, they might not be around much long..." etc.

Dividends in Danger at Regional Banks?

also, USB said they will likely raise their dividend. i guess you can take them off your list.

USB's earnings increased last Q. they were down from 2007, but the were positive unlike a lot of other banks, like WFC. the company grew its asset base and shareholder equity.

Tempting Buffett

also, if you think Buffett will buy Lehman or Merrill you don't know Buffett very well. he was burned once and won't likely be back. he hates, HATES, Wall St.!

GE: More Bad News to Come?

don't forget international sales. the Arabs and Chinese will be buying planes, trains, energy and infrastructure for the next 20 years - GE will be a major provider.

also, note that any real estate write downs are paper losses only. when the market improves (which it will eventually!) they will have to be written back up.

we should thus focus on operating results. all the other stuff is accounting b.s. in fact, new accounting rules are part of the problem we are now facing across the board!

Are Glorious Days Ahead for Microsoft?

i think the point with MSFT is that it is deeply undervalued right now.

you're looking at the difference between a company and its stock. you can have a great company (AAPL) but whose stock is already pricing in perfection, and thus does not offer a very good future expected return.

MSFT is, right now, +30% undervalued. you add in the dividend and the growth (15% for 2009) and you have an excellent expected return.