User 209156

Long-Term Ugliness

All arround negative sights, a buying opportunity for value investor. Agreed all of the above has their own problem. But if you look at individual, some are doing something to make things better. Like GM, stock is all time (meaning ALL TIME, since Nov. 1984). GM is crushed because off higher cost sturcture and some new youth love to foreign made cars. But if you see, GM is doing all it can to reduce the cost. Closing down plants in north america including canada where union is a major headache. They are making ways in India and China where the next growth is. And in India, GM cars are getting popular. Also, investing lots of money in India and China to outsourse parts and others. Agreed, this will take few years (would say 2) but all comes, GM will have much lower cost than now to withstand any slower sales cyle. Margin will impove and so the stock. Last week, Barron made same comments as mine (don't say I steal the idea from B) and they also see Gm stock much higher than now in next 3 years.

PFE, big gorilla, have lots of cash but no future product. But who knows that? Everyone is taking about Lipitor is going off patent in 2009 and PFE will have lower sales. But no one (I think no one !!!) giving any credit to PFE or any pipeline surprise. PFE have lots of drugs in pipeline and one of them become hit, PFE will be a multibegger. Other than that, PFE also can go for big buyout as lots of cash on balance sheet with no debt (small). Again, Some Indian companies are threat to PFE with their genaric formulas. Last night Ranbaxy (PFE's threat on Lipitor) was bought by Diachi of Japan. Same thing PFE can do buying out some Indian pharma who have very good pipeline and generic formula. PFE can go that way or buy any big phama's like Novarits or AstraZ. But PFE is alos a candidate which is going for multi year low and cheap valuation on which everyone has throw the towel, with no benefits for thier pipeline or merge/buy out.

Where C,AIG etc have their own problem. It's like a investors who bet big in dot com boom to earn easy and fast money. And then realise that "there is no free lunch" when bubble bust. Lost money but learn the lesson that every thing come with risk. So next time he become more caution. Cann't do anything else !!! Same goes for C,LEH,AIG etc. They bet big in booming housing market. Bubble bust. Lost lots of money. Lesson learned. Be good next time. Till then just settle the what you got. Fresh start !!!

Hope this thoughs heplful. Any comments, welcome !!!