jbs's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/20916/comments http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/31523?source=feed#comment-654150 654150 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 02:16:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23808?source=feed#comment-494818 494818 Thu, 07 May 2009 20:57:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/23808?source=feed#comment-494786 494786 Thu, 07 May 2009 20:05:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113006-time-to-short-treasuries?source=feed#comment-345739 345739 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:59:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113006-time-to-short-treasuries?source=feed#comment-345737 345737

On Jan 04 02:53 PM henarl wrote:

> An excellent article by one of the most astute contributors to SA...

]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:58:21 -0500

On Jan 04 02:53 PM henarl wrote:

> An excellent article by one of the most astute contributors to SA...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113006-time-to-short-treasuries?source=feed#comment-345736 345736
On Jan 04 02:53 PM henarl wrote:

> An excellent article by one of the most astute contributors to SA.

>
> I purchased TBT on 12-23 at $36.557 and immediately sold Mar. 09
> covered calls at $38 for $4.00, making my net investment $32.557.
> TBT is now at $39. If I am called away in Mar. I will make $1.44
> on share price plus $4 option premium, or $5.44 on an investment
> of $32.557 in three months or an annualized return of about 64%,
> counting commisions. If TBT is under $38 on Mar., I will sell more
> coverted calls. If TBT is below $32.557 on Mar., I will have made
> a poor investment.]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:56:44 -0500
On Jan 04 02:53 PM henarl wrote:

> An excellent article by one of the most astute contributors to SA.

>
> I purchased TBT on 12-23 at $36.557 and immediately sold Mar. 09
> covered calls at $38 for $4.00, making my net investment $32.557.
> TBT is now at $39. If I am called away in Mar. I will make $1.44
> on share price plus $4 option premium, or $5.44 on an investment
> of $32.557 in three months or an annualized return of about 64%,
> counting commisions. If TBT is under $38 on Mar., I will sell more
> coverted calls. If TBT is below $32.557 on Mar., I will have made
> a poor investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101947-my-all-or-nothing-strategy?source=feed#comment-291110 291110
But the real reason it is not smart is because you are substituting a time-insensitive position for a time-sensitive position. You are converting a long term position into a short-term position.

You think you aren't buying on margin, but you are employing another form of leverage -- a more expensive and time-sensitive form.]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:55:47 -0400
But the real reason it is not smart is because you are substituting a time-insensitive position for a time-sensitive position. You are converting a long term position into a short-term position.

You think you aren't buying on margin, but you are employing another form of leverage -- a more expensive and time-sensitive form.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88072-iac-interactivecorp-q2-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-236603 236603
There are more "[ph]"'s and all together wrong words than I've ever seen in a transcript before.]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 12:47:57 -0400
There are more "[ph]"'s and all together wrong words than I've ever seen in a transcript before.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70759-under-the-radar-news-tuesday?source=feed#comment-134970 134970
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/he...]]> Wed, 02 Apr 2008 00:47:37 -0400
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/he...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69530-will-credit-market-flight-to-safety-boost-stock-prices?source=feed#comment-130192 130192 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 01:28:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65791-shorting-the-homebuilders-as-their-stocks-surge?source=feed#comment-119009 119009
None of us knows where the market is going. I just like to get time on my side and average down with a safer index rather than individual stocks that might go to zero.

If I have a specific view and am confident in it then I will take a specific position in a company. But I don't see any level of analysis here that convinces me that anyone is much more likely to be right than a coin is likely to land on heads.

Isn't time better spent looking at the value of individual builders rather than guessing at which direction the market is going?]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2008 21:43:39 -0500
None of us knows where the market is going. I just like to get time on my side and average down with a safer index rather than individual stocks that might go to zero.

If I have a specific view and am confident in it then I will take a specific position in a company. But I don't see any level of analysis here that convinces me that anyone is much more likely to be right than a coin is likely to land on heads.

Isn't time better spent looking at the value of individual builders rather than guessing at which direction the market is going?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61747-uncovering-apple-s-missing-2m-iphones?source=feed#comment-113141 113141
All the numbers in the world can't solve a problem when the numbers are based on estimates that are based on little-to-no information.

There is a tremendous amount if useless speculation on this point. Consider it unknowable, and uncertainty, and dedicate your time to a problem that can actually be solved.]]> Mon, 28 Jan 2008 00:33:25 -0500
All the numbers in the world can't solve a problem when the numbers are based on estimates that are based on little-to-no information.

There is a tremendous amount if useless speculation on this point. Consider it unknowable, and uncertainty, and dedicate your time to a problem that can actually be solved.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61507-murdoch-wsj-com-will-stay-subscription-based?source=feed#comment-112902 112902 Fri, 25 Jan 2008 19:58:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60882-6-reasons-the-market-should-bounce-here?source=feed#comment-112000 112000 Mon, 21 Jan 2008 17:33:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/58103-after-you-buy-it-ll-always-go-lower-the-dick-davis-dividend-book-excerpt?source=feed#comment-106556 106556
What a bizarre comment. I see what his point is but his statement that stocks always go lower is absurd.]]> Sat, 22 Dec 2007 23:29:43 -0500
What a bizarre comment. I see what his point is but his statement that stocks always go lower is absurd.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56619-fed-can-t-engineer-business-cycles-away?source=feed#comment-104620 104620
I don't really know what your point is.

There could be a surprise, or not.

I feel like I just lost brain cells.]]> Sat, 08 Dec 2007 18:39:59 -0500
I don't really know what your point is.

There could be a surprise, or not.

I feel like I just lost brain cells.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/55872-has-nexcen-found-a-winning-concept-for-athlete-s-foot-stores?source=feed#comment-104619 104619 Sat, 08 Dec 2007 18:33:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/53463-doubling-down-on-continued-weakness-in-real-estate-financials?source=feed#comment-101375 101375
Apologies for coming across harsh.]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2007 18:27:42 -0500
Apologies for coming across harsh.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/53463-doubling-down-on-continued-weakness-in-real-estate-financials?source=feed#comment-101371 101371
You mean "exacerbates," which means to "increase the severity."

And it's not really "doubling down" that you are advocating here.

When did you put this trade on? You would have made a shitload if you did it before this week's tumble but somehow I don't think you did.
]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2007 17:06:22 -0500
You mean "exacerbates," which means to "increase the severity."

And it's not really "doubling down" that you are advocating here.

When did you put this trade on? You would have made a shitload if you did it before this week's tumble but somehow I don't think you did.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/52454-four-suggestions-to-save-sprint?source=feed#comment-100893 100893 Sun, 04 Nov 2007 11:43:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51655-is-smallcap-short-interest-losing-relevance?source=feed#comment-100464 100464 Wed, 31 Oct 2007 17:13:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44923-boo-yah-barron-s-shorts-cramer?source=feed#comment-94073 94073
The calls are screened. I have NEVER heard a pissed-off person call the show. I have never heard anyone call the show who bashed Cramer.

You are very naive if you don't think the calls are screened. The question becomes to what extent they are screened. And I believe they screen them to make Cramer look better than he is, by getting more people saying "thank you" than "I lost money."]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2007 21:48:20 -0400
The calls are screened. I have NEVER heard a pissed-off person call the show. I have never heard anyone call the show who bashed Cramer.

You are very naive if you don't think the calls are screened. The question becomes to what extent they are screened. And I believe they screen them to make Cramer look better than he is, by getting more people saying "thank you" than "I lost money."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44938-skype-is-back-but-the-damage-is-done?source=feed#comment-94072 94072
Skype is a new technology. Businesses aren't relying on it. The vast majority of customers don't exclusively use Skype for communications. Customers pay nothing (unless you're a Skype-In or Skype-Out customer that pays next-to-nothing).

So... the expectations aren't all that high, for all the reasons above. The customer expectations for Skype are not even close to what customers expect of a landline from a local telco, as far as reliability.

So there hasn't been much damage. Sure, the outage has slowed Skype's progress to gain credibility and wide-spread acceptance. But people expect glitches with new technology, especially when they pay very little or nothing for it.]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2007 21:41:55 -0400
Skype is a new technology. Businesses aren't relying on it. The vast majority of customers don't exclusively use Skype for communications. Customers pay nothing (unless you're a Skype-In or Skype-Out customer that pays next-to-nothing).

So... the expectations aren't all that high, for all the reasons above. The customer expectations for Skype are not even close to what customers expect of a landline from a local telco, as far as reliability.

So there hasn't been much damage. Sure, the outage has slowed Skype's progress to gain credibility and wide-spread acceptance. But people expect glitches with new technology, especially when they pay very little or nothing for it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44588-is-the-cpi-a-true-indication-of-what-lies-ahead-for-the-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-93746 93746
The CPI is backward looking.

I was under the impression that looking at the past wasn't a particularly reliable way of predicting the future. And I don't even think the future can be predicted.

If the CPI was a reliable indicator of the future then the markets wouldn't be volatile. There'd be a level of certainty. There is no certainty.

The CPI doesn't "predict" anything. If it did, then you and I would be very rich.]]> Wed, 15 Aug 2007 15:18:02 -0400
The CPI is backward looking.

I was under the impression that looking at the past wasn't a particularly reliable way of predicting the future. And I don't even think the future can be predicted.

If the CPI was a reliable indicator of the future then the markets wouldn't be volatile. There'd be a level of certainty. There is no certainty.

The CPI doesn't "predict" anything. If it did, then you and I would be very rich.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44592-why-i-m-thinking-like-eddie-lampert?source=feed#comment-93744 93744 Wed, 15 Aug 2007 14:05:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44164-divx-stage6-traffic-explodes-every-dream-has-a-price?source=feed#comment-93338 93338 Fri, 10 Aug 2007 09:41:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43931-headed-for-a-normal-20-30-correction?source=feed#comment-93205 93205
JBS]]> Thu, 09 Aug 2007 01:09:17 -0400
JBS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34100-emc-vmware-spin-out-new-shareholders-get-virtually-nothing?source=feed#comment-93142 93142
I use vmware on my laptop to concurrently run Ubuntu and Windows. Most people wouldn't do it, I admit, but that is where your personal computer usage comes from.

Oh, and vmware is currently heavily pirated if any of you didn't already realize as much.

As you may be able to discern from my comments I have no opinion about whether vmware will succeed as an independent company. I think the product is solid and the market is much bigger than your think but I counter that with the knowledge that MSFT is embracing virtualization and there are other people out there competing with vmware for the Mac market.]]> Wed, 08 Aug 2007 09:33:36 -0400
I use vmware on my laptop to concurrently run Ubuntu and Windows. Most people wouldn't do it, I admit, but that is where your personal computer usage comes from.

Oh, and vmware is currently heavily pirated if any of you didn't already realize as much.

As you may be able to discern from my comments I have no opinion about whether vmware will succeed as an independent company. I think the product is solid and the market is much bigger than your think but I counter that with the knowledge that MSFT is embracing virtualization and there are other people out there competing with vmware for the Mac market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43781-taking-a-300-gain-on-volatility-index-options?source=feed#comment-93111 93111 Tue, 07 Aug 2007 20:44:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43140-becoming-a-short-term-bear-on-whole-foods-following-earnings?source=feed#comment-92597 92597 Wed, 01 Aug 2007 08:57:31 -0400