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Under The Radar News - Tuesday

Soros Video:

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/he...

Uncovering Apple's Missing 2M iPhones

Why can't people accept that it is unknowable?

All the numbers in the world can't solve a problem when the numbers are based on estimates that are based on little-to-no information.

There is a tremendous amount if useless speculation on this point. Consider it unknowable, and uncertainty, and dedicate your time to a problem that can actually be solved.

Apple's New Software: Laying the Foundation for a Web 2.0 World

"however, is a valued goal of Apple and Google as ultra-portables cannot afford bloated third party applications and excessive media storage requirements."

This is true BUT the main reason Apple is only allowing developers to write widgets for Safari has to do with security. Think of Safari as a platform with security measures already in place to prevent scripts on websites from gaining access to the underlying operating system. By preventing developers direct access to the operating system, Apple is reducing the likelihood of self-propagating malicious code rooting the iPhone.

iPhone Earnings Could Push Apple Above $200/Share

Then why don't you own shares of AAPL?

The iPhone: Apple's First Flop

"having to turn off the music to answer my phone becomes a major hassle"
Apple knows this. The iPhone automatically fades out the music when you place/receive a call and resumes it when the call's complete.

"users who do not point at exactly the number they want will keep initializing errant calls."
If there's one thing Apple's good at it is user interfaces. I haven't used the iPhone, but I will bet that this is not a problem. The technology used in the touchscreen is more sensitive than other touch-screens we've seen before. This sensitivity coupled with Apple's expertise at developing interface software will likely eliminate this "problem."

"it is not an unrealistic stretch to consider that you may be purchasing one of these every two or three years. An expensive proposition."
The target customer already owns phones and iPods, an equally expensive proposition.

"Give us a 2GB capacity so we can put our favorite stuff on it and listen when we want, cut the price to $299 and you may have something"
Wrong again. Cutting capacity is unlikely to significantly reduce the price of the iPhone. Apple gets fairly good prices on its memory - it's the combination of many different technologies that makes the phone expensive. Additionally, you can't pitch the iPhone as an iPod replacement with only 2 gigs.

I'd like to point out that I am not an Apple fan. The iPhone may fail. But I don't think your reasons will be the reason it fails. Nobody's made a phone like this before, we have to see what pricing the market will bear, but I am fairly confident in Jobs that Apple looked this over before embarking on a multi-million dolalr mission to bring this to market.

Apple's Impressive iPhone Sales Projections

To Pay Man:

9,000,000,000 is 9 billion

1% of that is 90,000,000 (lose 2 zeros)

and 1/10 of that is 9,000,000 (lose 1 zero)

You said it was 1 million. Clearly it is 9 million. Did you pass math?

Apple's P-to-P Movie Downloads To Eclipse Wal-Mart and BitTorrent

One more thing I'd like to add:

This discussion get at the heart of a much bigger issue. Carl has taken a bigger picture business-oriented approach. I am skeptical of the ability of technology to make his ideas a reality.

This type of discussion occurs every day. People have ideas and others with specialized knowledge are quick to rebut. I can think of reasons why this wouldn't work. But I do think it is a possibility. Not with BitTorrent as it exists today.

Apple's P-to-P Movie Downloads To Eclipse Wal-Mart and BitTorrent

You raise a valid point about Amazon's distribution model which I hadn't considered.

My main concern is with the distribution model you discuss is accountability. However, the following comment you made is thought-provoking:

"By controlling all three points of distribution: the original content, the clients that redistribute that content, and the final decoder, Apple does not need to succumb to the limitations of today's BitTorrent world."

BitTorrent is protocol, so it cannot alone do the things you suggest here. I do agree that the protocol can be implemented in such a way that Apple "not need to succumb to the limitations of today's BitTorrent world."

If Apple could control the three points you discuss then I agree that the model is workable and would have tremendous value for users and Apple. It will be difficult, because BitTorrent is about free participation in an open network. Your implementation has Apple controlling, to some extent, the user's computer. The user would have to agree to share the file (and their bandwidth) with other customers, and not modify the file. Apple would have to ensure that the file (in its original form) was shared. I am still concerned about Apple's ability to do these things. But at this point it becomes a technology issue rather than a business issue, and I do not doubt Apple's ability to innovate.

So, I feel I have a much better understanding of your idea after reading your comment. WIth these three points being controlled by Apple, I believe that accountability could be ensured.

It is interesting to think about these things and I'll be interested to see what ends up happening.

Jordan

Apple's P-to-P Movie Downloads To Eclipse Wal-Mart and BitTorrent

BitTorrent was invented for things like Linux. Why? Because the non-profit organizations that develop Linux distros couldn't afford the server infrastructure for a server-client distribution model. BitTorrent solved this problem.

If I am paying Wal-Mart, Apple, or anybody else for a movie, I want to download the movie from THEIR servers. This is the only way to ensure authenticity of the file. This is the only way we can hold the Company accountable for the availability of the file.

As far as authenticity:
Read about how easy it is to edit a file while keeping the MD5 hash intact. It is possible to manipulate files and checksums/hashes so that a BitTorrent/P2P client downloads a corrupt or manipulated file. Who would bear responsibility? All it takes is one hacker to introduce this file onto a P2P network. Would we hold Wal-Mart or Apple accountable?

These companies have to be held accountable. This can only be done if they have full control over the server (and the files on those servers).

As far as availability:
Apple or Wal-Mart could seed the file. That would ensure availability, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee fast download speeds. If the company seeded enough files then availability would be guaranteed. But to seed enough files to guarantee availability they would have built the server infrastructure that they may as well use to bypass P2P altogether.

Furthermore, there are technical problems with using BitTorrent in that it has a peak download "window" where there are optimal seeds and leachers. Outside of this window, download speeds can be abismal.

SO...
For accountability reasons, P2P cannot work when a customer pays a company for a product. It works when people don't pay, because the "customer" is willing to accept slow speeds in return for the free product, such as a Linux distro.

Too many people have too many ideas about things they don't understand. I don't believe P2P is an alternative for the reasons above. If this post was made on a tech site I'm pretty sure it wouldn't stand up to the technical criticisms.

Steve Jobs' Apology: A 'How To' Lesson in Corporate Governance

There's a key difference between the situation Hurd and Jobs found themselves in: Jobs' knew (or was at least pretty sure that) he wasn't going to face severe criminal charges, while Hurd knew he probably would.

I don't like the comparison because although there's a good point to the article, the evidence here doesn't support it.

If Jobs knew his job and his freedom was safe, he loses nothing by accepting responsibility. Whereas if Hurd accepted responsibility as the author suggests, it would certainly be used against him in court.

So there's a valid point here, that honesty and accepting responsibility are key, but we have to remember that the threat of prosecution is a factor.