jbs

Shorting the Homebuilders as Their Stocks Surge

Everyone thinks they are right. Half of you will be. Congrats.

None of us knows where the market is going. I just like to get time on my side and average down with a safer index rather than individual stocks that might go to zero.

If I have a specific view and am confident in it then I will take a specific position in a company. But I don't see any level of analysis here that convinces me that anyone is much more likely to be right than a coin is likely to land on heads.

Isn't time better spent looking at the value of individual builders rather than guessing at which direction the market is going?

Tops and Bottoms: Reflections and Predictions

We may be near a bottom but extensive news coverage about subprime mortgages isn't enough to arrive at that conclusion. News coverage is only one signal that a bottom is approaching.

These stocks are still being sold. When they report disappointing earnings and the stocks cease to decline further, that's when I'll get interested -- when the sellers are gone.