50/50 Portfolio; Dec 2016 YOC 10.0% about 0? months before retirement, dividends at 72% of my gross employment income. I created a High Yield Investment dividend generator that contains a 50% weighting between agency mortgage REITs and BDCs.
**** Home of the POT (Portfolio Online Tracking) tool.
My current investment method started January 2014 to concentrate on high yield equities that put more importance on income and less on capital appreciation. Investment purchase is based on each individual stock generating a minimum dividend per year. As long as stocks are generating income to meet or exceed my minimum dividend they will not be added too or removed. Currently all dividends are reinvested back into stocks that require their dividends to be increased to meet my minimum yearly dividend. We will see how this works over the years.
1) The REIT sector consists of residential and commercial property investments. What better way to invest in hundreds of properties without actually owing the physical property.
2) The BDC are Business Development Companies that invest in hundreds of businesses that create products and employment opportunities. Here again the BDC does all the research to lend to businesses and the investor does not have to actually own the physical business.
3) The investment selection is based on this principle; BDCs outperform when markets are going up (positive correlation), and mREITs, outperform when markets are going down (negative correlation). This is based on a research study performed by Wells Fargo titled “The 50/50 Portfolio, Milton Friedman’s Only “Free” Lunch. And runs through an analysis in demonstrating how combining BDCs and Agency mREITs leads to sustainable long-term alpha throughout cycles.
4) Capital gain does not apply to my investment method since this implies the anticipation of buy and hope for price increase in order to sell at a profit. I have already stated the HYBRID method holds investments based on cost basis and dividends per share as the method of yearly appreciation.
5) A bird in the hand is worth 10 in a bush, applies to this investment style. The return I get on my investment is what counts toward the recapture of my initial investment cost. I can calculate how many years it will take before my initial cost will be repaid and that investment now becomes perpetual income. I’m not a trader, just a buy, hold and collector (dividends * shares). I can’t count on capital appreciation since all investments will increase and decrease in any market cycle. Dividends I can count on as payment for investment risk that accumulates over time.
6) Update 20140612, Portfolio Plan; Build a portfolio that generates income 150% of minimum required. Example I need 10K from 30 stocks made up of REITs and BDCs. Diversification is already built into each stock because each one contains hundreds of properties and business, so 30 stocks is plenty. Now to generate 10K minimum income I will establish a 50% margin of error (or income default). So to get 10K minimum I will need 15K of income (10K * 1.5). This means each stock is required to generate at least $500/yr each. I can withstand a 33% hit in the dividends and still meet my 10K minimum requirement. That is 10 stocks can go to zero and the remaining 20 will create my minimum 10K.
7) Update 20140729, I do not invest in individual companies, too risky. The following is the logic behind this statement compared to BDC investments. If I invest in 30 dividend companies, anyone of them may have financial problems and drag down the portfolio very quickly. The Due-Diligence (DD) would take all my time to analyze past performance and make judgments for the future, and current events can tank a stock fast. Every company needs money to run operations and for capital improvements and this is where BDCs come into play. The individual company has to borrow funds and BDCs are there to provide the capital. So the BDC is like a bank to lend money. Each BDC may contain hundreds of separate loans going to hundreds of different companies making the BDC less risky than owning individual companies. If one of the companies that the BDC has a loan with goes bankrupt, the BDC will recover some if not all of the loan monies lent to the failed company, and the BDC will continue with a very small disruption to its bottom line. So in effect owing BDCs that contain hundreds of investments (loans to companies) earning a consistent repayment to principal and interest is safer than just owning an individual low yielding company. When you invest in a BDC or REIT you are investing in the managers that perform the DD by analyzing the companies first before loaning them money to run their business.
Owing 10 or more BDCs is like having investments in thousands of companies with a very low risk of any one individual company causing portfolio damage, while your portfolio grows faster with the high yields from BDCs and REITs.
8) I have developed FREE Excel applications for planning retirement during the accumulation and distribution phase, the links are in my articles, (Dividend Growth Calculator... and Predicting Retirement...) As I develop additional Excel 2010 applications I'll make them available to all SA members. We are all in the same boat trying to achieve a better life in retirement.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect. But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future. Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
Macro Investor | Mid/Long Term Horizon | US Equities, Commodities and Fixed Income | English, Dutch & German | Main Goal: Deliver the 1% of Global Data Needed To Make Money | Education | Ask Me Anything: firstname.lastname@example.org |
What to expect from my articles: I write mainly about my basic set of economic indicators that give a solid outlook about the economy. I then discuss trades that fit to the mid/long term outlook.
Lejun James Shao is the founder of www.myIRAs.net (http://www.myIRAs.net/), WhitePine Investment Inc of USA, and CEO of WhitePine Software Inc, Beijing, China. He was the top finisher in MSN's 1st US One Million Dollar Investment Contest, "Strategy Open Tournament," with a +45.88% return in 4 months from August 28 - December 2008.
An IT wizard turned professional investor, James Shao graduated from the University of Michigan with a PhD degree in Computer Engineering in 1990 and worked as an assistant professor in Singapore's Nanyang Technology University for 5 years after graduation. He worked as Chief Software Engineer in DSP Technology, Design Engineer in Ford Motor Company, and several other high tech companies after his return. James Shao started his investment profession in 2001.
Dennis Boyko runs GoldMinerPulse, a site which provides traders and investors with unique, confidential customized metrics based on fundamental data from 500+ TSX/TSXv gold/silver equities and gold etfs including GLD, GDX and GDXJ.
I have more than 10 years experience investing in commodities and hard assets such as gold and silver miners, exploration companies, oil and gas producers, MLPs, and various other sectors.
Acting Man has been named after the title of the first chapter of Ludwig von Mises' book "Human Action" - the best treatise on economics ever written. The blog's main author is Pater Tenebrarum, an independent analyst who has been involved with financial markets for 34 years and is writing economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy. Acting Man presents articles on the markets and the economy, a mixture of commentary on current events as well as economic theory and history, mainly from an Austrian School of Economics viewpoint. As more authors have joined the site, we have begun to broaden our palette a bit, but our orientation remains the same: pro-free market, anti-state, pro peace.
I work as a precious and base metals analyst at Metal Bulletin (global provider of market analysis and price forecasts for the metals industry) in London.
I have worked in the metals markets for about 5 years and have been passionate for the industry since 2007 - when I bought my very first gold coins.
In addition to my strong interest in understanding the metals complex, I manage a portfolio for my family, which can be described as a discretionary global macro portfolio. My investment philosophy has been highly influenced by George Soros and Karl R. Popper.
I continue to work on my philosophical framework in order to improve my decision-making process under uncertainty.
I was born in Paris, France. I graduated from University of Assas with a MSc in finance (2011), I also earned a MSc Research in economics from University of Sorbonne (2012), where I published a research thesis intituled “Is gold a speculative bubble?” under the direction of Natixis Chief Economist Patrick Artus, and I finally received a MSc in management from ESSEC Business School (2014). I launched a blog in 2013, Mikz Economics, in which I share some of my research as well as trade ideas. Follow me on Twitter @MikzEconomics to get the most updated metals news https://twitter.com/MikzEconomics
Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., a boutique investment advisory firm based in San Antonio that manages domestic and offshore funds specializing in the natural resources and emerging markets sectors. The company’s no-load mutual funds include the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) and the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX). For more insight and perspective from Mr. Holmes, please visit his investment blog, “Frank Talk” (http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/).
Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. In those days, trainees learned everything: from making the tea, to corporate finance, to evaluating and dealing in equities and bonds. They learned rapidly through experience about things as diverse as mining shares and general economics. It was excellent training, and within nine years Alasdair had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, Alasdair held positions at director level in investment management, and worked as a mutual fund manager. He also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, Alasdair has been de-mystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Dave Fish is Executive Editor for The Moneypaper and co-manager (since 1999) of the MP 63 Fund (Symbol: DRIPX), a fund that invests exclusively in companies that offer Direct Investment (or Dividend Reinvestment) Plans. He is also the author of the U.S. Dividend Champions spreadsheet (and PDF), which is updated at the end of each month...and lists companies that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years. (Separate tabs list "Contenders" that have increased their payouts for 10-24 years and "Challengers" that have increased their payouts for 5-9 years.) http://dripinvesting.org/Tools/Tools.asp
Two guys who love Investing, Dividends, Frugality, Passive Income & attempting to Reinvest Our Dividends to one day achieve Financial Freedom! Follow us on your journey towards a work-free life!
Cited by Barron's as one of the top financial websites to visit on the weekend, Financial Sense (www.financialsense.com) provides educational resources to the broad public audience through a daily podcast, editorials, current news and resource links on salient financial market issues. Begun in 1985 as a local talk radio program, Financial Sense Newshour (www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour) is a weekly webcast with host Jim Puplava and top financial thinkers. Writing staff of Financial Sense includes: Jim Puplava, Chris Puplava, Ryan Puplava, and Cris Sheridan.
If you are interested in any of my digital utility solutions to add to your investing tool box to improve your investment outcomes, please visit my site
You'll find elegant applications that make it simple for you to track your portfolio in real time, make a watch list to follow in real time, track your dividend income and growth, and other applications. These applications will allow you to set alerts at prices you choose in order to obtain the yield and income that you want. They function as real time trade assistants and will improve your investment performance. You can even mirror the successful FTG Portfolio with "My FTG Mirror Calculator", and subscribers can mirror the premium subscriber portfolio with "MY RODAT Mirror Calculator" if they wish to emulate the out performance we've achieved in capital and income growth.
I am a retired clinical psychologist, and administrator and owner of a rehabilitation clinic we founded 40 years ago. For over 55 years I have managed several portfolios composed of investments accumulated over our professional careers. Since the financial crisis of 2008, I have employed specialized, customized dividend growth strategies aimed at enhancing and growing a dividend income stream.
Since December 24, 2014, I have demonstrated on Seeking Alpha the ongoing construction and portfolio management of the Fill-The-Gap Portfolio aimed at highlighting strategies investors may utilize to close the gap between an average Social Security benefit and the much greater costs faced in retirement.
This portfolio has outperformed all of the broad market indexes by a very wide margin, growing dividend income and total portfolio value consistently while the broader indexes struggle in negative territory all year.
Aside from free articles available to the general public, additional early-access, value-added ideas and deep-dive articles are offered to paid subscribers on my premium SA platform, "Retirement: One Dividend At A Time"
Let me show you how to build and grow your portfolio and dividend income, step by step, towards a comfortable and secure retirement.
I am a 43 year veteran of Wall Street. My first 26 years were spent on the buy-side as an institutional money manager. I have spent the last 13 years as a sell-side strategist. I am a life long contrarian who finds it easy to take positions quite apart from the crowd. I am most comfortable with my forecasts when my macro and technical analysis are in sync and when my views are at odds with the consensus. I've always been fascinated by the behavioral aspects of investing. Years of observing investor behavior has led me to the conclusion that investor psychology may be the most powerful emotional force in the universe, more powerful than love or hate. It causes otherwise rational beings to make some very irrational decisions. I think every investor should read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay.
Lawrence is the Managing Director of Fuller Asset Management. He has 20+ years of experience managing investment portfolios and serving the needs of individual clients. He began his career as a Financial Consultant in 1993 with Merrill Lynch. He worked for First Union Brokerage, Morgan Stanley and ING in the same capacity before realizing his long-term goal of complete independence. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a B.A. in Political Science in 1992.
Founder and Lead Analyst at Lone Wolf Publications Ltd (www.lonewolftrader.com).
I also manage a private investment portfolio full time, and also provide mutual fund analysis and buy recommendations to individual investors managing their own investments.
I trade for myself via ETFs and futures markets, with interests in commodities generally and a special interest in precious metals.
I graduated from the University of Western Australia in 1984 with a degree in electronic engineering and from 1984 until 1998 worked in the commercial construction industry as an engineer, a project manager and an operations manager.
I began investing in the stock market 2 months prior to the 1987 stock market crash and thus quickly learned about the downside potential of stocks. Only slightly daunted by the rather inauspicious timing of my entry into the world of financial market investments, my interest in the stock market grew steadily over the years.
In 1993, after studying the history of money, the nature of our present-day fiat monetary system and the role of banks in the creation of money, I developed an interest in gold. Another very important lesson soon followed: gold may be the ideal form of money for those who believe in free markets and a wonderful hedge against the inherent instability of the government-imposed paper currencies, but it is not always a good investment.
By mid-1998 the time and money involved in my financial market research/investments had grown to the point where I was forced to make a decision: scale back on my involvement in the financial world or give up my day job. The decision was actually quite an easy one to make and so, at the beginning of 1999, I began investing/trading on a full-time basis.
My major concern in deciding to pursue a career in which I devoted all of my time to my own investments was that I would miss the personal interaction that had been part and parcel of my business management career. The Speculative Investor (TSI) web site was launched in August of 1999 as a means for me to interact with the world by making my analysis/ideas available on the Internet and inviting feedback from others with similar interests.
During its first 14 months of operation the TSI web site was free of charge, but due to the site's growing popularity I changed it to a subscription-based service in October of 2000. Its popularity continued to grow, although I remained -- and remain to this day -- a professional speculator who happens to write a newsletter as opposed to someone whose overriding focus is selling newsletter subscriptions.
My approach is 'top down'; specifically, I first ascertain overall market trends and then use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to find individual stocks that stand to benefit from these broad trends. This approach is based on my experience that it's an order of magnitude easier to pick a winning stock from within a market or market sector that's immersed in a long-term bullish trend than to do so against the backdrop of a bearish overall market trend. Fortunately, there's always a bull market somewhere.
I've lived in Asia (Hong Kong, China and Malaysia) since 1995 and currently reside in Malaysian Borneo.
I have been a successful Private Investor in the market for the last 18 years. My focus was mostly on the Tech/Internet sector when I started, but 13-14 years ago I became extremely interested in the Gold and Silver sector as I anticipated a major bull run. My in-depth research on gold and silver companies began during 2003 or so, and it has been a consistent passion since that time. I'm familiar with their stories, their stock patterns, their highs and lows, their operations/projects, their successes and failures, their management teams and turnover at the top, and all other facets of these precious metal companies. This sector has been my singular focus since I started writing on Seeking Alpha back in 2014, as I anticipated that gold and silver would soon be bottoming out and a massive bull market would unfold. I still follow the tech/internet space and I plan to eventually jump back into that sector (2009 was a very profitable year for me as bought tech at the lows), but it's not where my attention is at the moment as I see much better opportunities in gold and silver. I believe in buying value, and not chasing the next hot stock. I use several basic investing principles, the main one being buying the balance sheet. I wait for opportunities to present themselves and then establish positions. I believe in doing your homework, and I have a very research intensive focus.
*Disclaimer* I am not a Certified Financial Advisor. My research and articles should not be interpreted as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any security at any time. The accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information posted in my articles is not guaranteed. Do not rely on any statement that I make in my articles. All readers and subscribers should always conduct their own research and should consult a professional financial advisor when it comes to making investment decisions.
I'm an asset manager at Hebba Alternative Investments with a focus on real assets. In my articles I like to focus on events that affect the macro environment for assets (especially gold and silver), and also introduce readers to different metrics that I believe are under-utilized when assessing investments.
On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.
I'm not always right with recommendations, but investors and readers can know that I always tell the truth (there is no deception) and I eat my own cooking as recommendations are either always owned OR the reason I dont own them is given (usually related to restrictions on stocks I can buy).
Advising people in financial matters is a serious issue and integrity is much more important than money to me, but I do believe both can co-exist. You live with money, but after your death you only have your morality and integrity and thus i've made my choice between the two. A bit philosophical for a bio, but I dont think there's a better way to give investors my background than that.
We offer investors a free weekly email list detailing gold, silver, and general economic markets which you can sign up for at: http://www.communitysynergy.com/subscribe/hebbainvestments_subscribe.html
Scott has been involved in the financial services profession for more than 18 years. He has enjoyed studying market gurus as well as non-traditional newsletter writers and bloggers while benefiting from extensive and varied reading. He has worked both as a retail broker and as a representative of investment advisers and also has an extensive background in insurance products and annuities. His primary focus is on high-yielding income strategies.
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Thomas H. Kee Jr., is President and CEO of Stock Traders Daily. The Stock of the Week Strategy offered by Stock Traders Daily may be the best performing strategy on the market since December, 2007 (before the credit crisis), and "The Investment Rate" is arguably the best measure of the underlying economy available anywhere (it is a macroeconomic work). Our reports and analysis are currently offered by Reuters Research to their institutional clients. Economic analysis and forecasting is provided to a variety of institutional and retail clientele through Stock Traders Daily's corporate website. Mr. Kee had worked with Smith Barney, AG Edwards, and Morgan Stanley before founding Stock Traders Daily in January 2000. Stock Traders daily thrived during the Internet Debacle. (http://stocktradersdaily.com/)
Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. He was a member of Western's Investment Strategy Committee, was responsible for developing the firm's domestic and international outlook, and provided consultation and advice on investment and asset allocation strategies to CFOs, Treasurers, and pension fund managers. He specialized in analysis of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate forecasting, and spearheaded the firm's research into Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors.
Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/)
Contrarian daytrading technician who specializes in locating high probability short term trades while predicting price movement directions with over 85% accuracy. Most of my trading involves either extremely short term micro scalping of stocks or commodities (using 1 minute bar charts), or swing trading of stocks overnight. I also specialize in weekly stock option premium selling, along with pre-market and post-market psuedo market maker and stealth trading activity, and selling commodity option strangles (selling delta neutral pairs of far out-ot-the-money puts and calls), with the intent to achieve a steady 1% weekly return. After 32 years, well battle tested, very opportunitistic while putting capital preservation as tantamount.
Rehabilitation Counselor over 20 years, M.S., M.B.A., now an around-the-clock speculator. Incorporate seasonals, time of day, and other patterns and methods where high probability price movement patterns can be statistically forecast. Know how to safely go long high beta, heavily shorted stocks; know how and when to use extremes in sentiment to take the other side. I like to fade extreme moves as my proprietary methods are based on reversion to the mean theory. Developed my own scale trading and money management techniques. Will change and adapt my trading style based on current market conditions.
I hope to start a chatroom devoted to teaching speculators how to see and capture daytrading opportunities. They say that those who can...do, while those who can't....teach. I want to provide teaching from someone who really can do, someone who knows how to make steady returns while experiencing minimal drawdowns. As a mentor, I would love to share my knowledge and support to help small traders. I came from humble beginnings and have never forgotten it. I want to accelerate the learning curve of my chatroom students so they won't have to make all the mistakes that I have over the years. I am excellent at devising and implementing strategies that can quickly turn a losing trade into a net winner.