einstein p fleet

Reviewing Our January 2009 Market Predictions

Did we over correct? Probably. Did we compensate for that correction? Most likely, but who knows.

Commercial real estate is tanking, the consumer is tapped, residential real estate has another leg down, our nation is deeply in debt, and we have no consensus on policy.

By all means, it's time for a huge rally... if you are a contrarian loon.

What an Apple Tablet Has to Be

It's a natural move for Apple and it will happen sooner or later with some sort of multi-media player that retails under $300. Sony just entered the business with a "Kindle" killer that will play any format. The problem with any format is that they have to compete with Amazon, which is is a book store with a large audience, and Apple could seamlessly add i-Books to the i-Tunes shop --- which would negate the Sony strategy sans Google's new library of public domain offerings. If it comes down to format wars, I wouldn't negate the "cool" factor and that translates to Apple.

Cramer's Mad Money - Four Tech Horseman Gallop Again (2/2/09)

Well, so much for investing in the "stimulus" package. Bailed at 15 and put Zacks on the S list.

Will revisit the company when the dollar weakens.

Financial Crisis Could Lead to Increase in Media M&A Activity

Media companies may be acquired, but their value shrinks by the day. The money is in the delivery of content, not the content itself. The i-Pod is a perfect example. Whether the user downloads the music or pirates it, they still need a device to play it on. Amazon's Kindle is another step in the same direction. As the model shift to digital and the internet becomes the standard delivery system for movies, television, and radio the model is going to have to change. Radio is already a dead issue aside from talk show formats. Television and film are next and probably most effected given the cost to produce content in those two mediums. M&A is certain, but the value of these companies is not. Most of the digital rights to television and movies are not owned by the studios. They may not benefit, but there will be a lot of happy artists out there.

25 Big Companies Worth a Look

This isn't the type of market where a "buy and hold" strategy necessary pays off, but it can be if you combine building a core position with a trading strategy. I have build a core position with BUCY at about 13 dollars a share, but have been trading it between 12.50 and 13.50, bring my actually cost basis down to around 8.50 a share.

There are a lot of great companies out there that appear cheap. I used to think that MOS was a steal at 60 dollars. Perceptions change along with the prices.

As long as the market continues to act this way, I think the only way to make money is to buy stocks that you don't mind owning over the long run ---- provided they pay a dividend ---- and trade around the core positions.

Cramer's Mad Money - Four Tech Horseman Gallop Again (2/2/09)

FSYS is an interesting company. Zacks also came out and recommended the stock as a value and growth play. There are a lot of value plays to chose from ---- unfortunately the growth aspect is clouded by a lack of visibility. This stock should do well under the Obama "stimulus" package once someone actually understands the package. Until then, it's just a spec stock that keeps crushing earnings....

Where Is the (Sector) Leadership In This Rally?

More like a bear bounce than a rally.

I agree that oil, basic materials, precious metals, and agriculture may be the sectors that lead. They were the leadership during the rally and they have fallen very hard. Still need to turn on the lights and eat. Whether you agree or not, the infrastructure play is about to go into effect in the USA and China. Other countries will follow. Some of the new tech companies will rally as well, especially if they are environmentally friendly or cut medical costs.

The financial stocks, home builders, and retail are in for tough sledding. The credit card fiasco is around the corner, along with problems in the commercial real estate sector.

Where's the leadership? Buy Obama.

Hedge Fund Liquidations Bear Some Blame For Market Drop

The US government would be wise to protect all of our natural resources, especially coal and fertilizer companies.

The Chinese are going to revamp their farming system and rebuild the infrastructure of their own country. Watch the dry bulk shipping index.
The Chinese have been absent for a while, which has driven prices down along with the forced liquidations of hedge and mutual funds.

Warren Buffet isn't the only one who knows how to buy undervalued assets and, believe me, no one is more patient than the Chinese.

Monday Options Update: POT, XLF, NCC, SOV, GD, AAPL, RIMM, C, BGG

Well, so far everyone ---- including me --- has POT and MOS wrong.

Personally, I think the credit crunch has a lot to do with it and I worry that we will see ramifications in the form of food shortages next year. People may have to tighten their belts a bit more than expected.

I've seen several comparisons to the dot com bubble which I find difficult to understand. POT and MOS trade at low PE ratios, especially going forward, throw off a ton of cash, and have a viable business model. A lot of other basic material and infrastructure stocks seem to be in the same position. How would you compare that to JDSU or the other dot com busts that traded at insane multiples and did little or no business to speak of? MOS may have missed earnings, but they still made over 1.3B, trade and trade at less than 3X estimated 2009 earnings. What am I missing here?

Monday Options Update: POT, XLF, NCC, SOV, GD, AAPL, RIMM, C, BGG

Citi Investment Research analyst, Brian Yu, reiterated his BUY rating on MOS today due his "positive long-term position on the North American fertilizer market." Interesting, considering his downgrade of AGU, TRA, and CF last week. As far as I know, he still has a buy rating on POT, which I consider best in breed.

The credit crunch may impede the ability of farmers to buy seed and fertilizer in the USA during planting season. The implications of food shortages or having to import more food as a result, may be another selling point that was missed the other day.