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Fast Money: Who Will Be the First to Repay TARP Funds (2/27/09)

Al-Qaida will be the first to return the TARP money. We seem to be doing a good job of destroying America and the rest of the world without any outside help.

Renewable Energy Reality: We're Dependent on Coal

RTK is using a similar technology right now. Interesting company. Just signed a deal to produce synthetic jet fuel to the US Air Force. It's clean and green, which is a step in the right direction.

Interesting conversation ----- what say we burn another log and toss GUMBY on the fire?


On Jan 13 01:18 AM wallyjm wrote:

> germany made coal into diesel fuel to power their submarines in ww2

The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities

The price of oil is unsustainable at these levels for any period of time and, the longer it stays under 40 dollars a barrel, the more likely it will spring load the price higher. Too many countries are dependent on oil to fund social programs and their economies. I wouldn't be surprised to see a geo-political event or a series of events next year --- unfortunately. With the printing presses running at full speed and the Fed rate at virtually zero, there is very little in the arsenal to fight inflation or support the US dollar. I agree that you need the basic essentials --- food, shelter, and energy --- to live and that commodities provide the basis for what we need. You can't eat gold, but I guess it comes in handy if you have a cavity.

Despite the call for nuclear power, I don't see it replacing coal in the near future. Obama needs to create jobs now and nuclear takes time and planning. As much as everyone likes the concept of cheap nuclear energy to power the country, I doubt they are going to be willing to pay for building it out for the next twenty years or have a plant in their own backyards. Obama may well need to change his stance and embrace coal and technologies that allow for cleaner coal, rather than look for ways to bankrupt the mining companies. China is still building coal factories and they will continue to do so. For that reason I like the dry bulk shippers (EXM, PRGN, FRO), the coal mining and equipment companies, (BTU, WLT, JOYG), and the infrastructure plays (FWLT, FLR).

I'm not sure that there is pent up demand for new cars anymore than there is pent up demand for new homes, but if I did I would want to bet on hybrids which require lithium batteries (SQM). I've been wondering why smaller home builders have not collapsed, but it seems to me that will have to happen before we see a bottom.

The American consumer is tapped, which was evident from retail sales this year ---- culminating with a terrible holiday season. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive credit card defaults in the beginning of 2009, followed by a collapse in the commercial real estate market. It's ironic that the American taxpayer bailed out the banks and in return the banks cut credit lines and upped the interest rates to levels nothing short of usury.

Next year might prove to be even tougher than 2008, but I'm hopeful that things will gradually improve. Every asset class in the world was overvalued and came back to Earth. If you pick the right spots and have any cash left in your pockets, it could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Four Coal Companies Suffering from Investor Caution

Obama's comments about clean burning coal and bankrupting the industry have made investors leery. I'm one of them.

On the other hand, coal is too important to the US and China for electricity and the US consumer is tapped --- so I don't see how we can switch from coal to alternative in less than ten years. If we apply technology toward "cleaner" burning coal over that period, that's a different matter.

Guess we'll all know when Obama's energy plan is revealed. May create one of the great buying opportunities of all time. These stocks are cheap, with lots of upside.

Coal's Dark Days Are Over

I don't really understand why the earnings from BTU was such a surprise. Coal is primarily used for electricity. People are spending more time at home --- watching television, playing video games on computers. There are also more people working from home. I seriously doubt they are doing it in the dark.

China is going to have to come back to market sooner or later and they are dependent on coal for electricity.

From what I heard during the conference call, the credit crunch impaired the ability of several coal companies, which means there will be less coal and price support. It could also create consolidation in the group.

I've been buying ACI, BTU, and WLT.

No Buy Recommendations - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/1/08)

JC would do better with his own money on the line --- unfortunately, that's not the case. He's right about one thing --- do your own homework.

His online company downgraded ACI this morning. I bought it at 24 last Friday and picked up a quick five points. Thanks, Jim.

Cramer has quoted the virtues of reading the front page of the NY Times to extrapolate investment information. Good article about China on the front page over the weekend in regard to a new farming policy. Seems to me that China wants to modernize the feudal farming business. I would extrapolate that would be good for dry bulk, tankers, fertilizer, seed, farm machinery, and infrastructure. Jim?

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

If I were the Chinese government, I would sit on the sidelines and watch the meltdown proceed. When prices got cheap enough, I would buy dry bulk shipping companies, steel, iron ore, copper, lithium, fertilizer, seed, and coal companies.

The future is not in precious metals. It's strictly a hedge. The real danger is losing Park Place and Boardwalk.

Just a thought.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

It's almost Xmas. Time to buy some coal for your stocking.

No Buy Recommendations - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/1/08)

Cramer should stop with the doom and gloom and get more constructive. Panic selling good stocks at a loss isn't going to accomplish much unless you need the tax write off.

Cramer gets it wrong just as often as he gets it right. The July 15 bottom on WB was just one example. He owns up to the mistakes when he makes them, but you still own the losses.

Would I sell ACI at 27? No. Would I sell NOV at 40? No. Would I sell FWLT at 30? No. Would I sell JOYG at 37? No. Would I sell MOS at 40? No. While I may not add to positions until the market settles down, I certainly wouldn't panic and sell companies with strong fundamentals, healthy balance sheets, and excellent management for a loss. I'd just put them away and take a look again in 18 months.

BTW ---- Both Biden and Palin were pro the use of all alternative energy including cleaner burning coal in the debate. ACI is a buy.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

The commodity markets are trading as if the world is coming to an end. The underlying equities are trading even worse.

The sell off in POT and MOS has been brutal, as has been the sell off in nearly every equity in the basic material and infrastructure space. A lot of these companies generate huge cash flow and business is strong. MOS may have disappointed analysts expectations, but the company is making a lot of money. It seems as if the companies are willing to let their share price go lower in order to initiate the most bang for their buy back buck --- or they will take themselves private.

Don't be surprised to see a lot of M&A in the near future, especially if stock prices continue to plunge. These stocks all have plenty of cash on the balance sheets.

Today's True Safe Haven Investments

No offense, but this is a ridiculous blog.

China needs coal and the world needs energy ---- especially during the transition to natural gas and other alternative fuels. This will take time to achieve, but it will happen over the next ten years. Must admit, I prefer natural gas as a green play, but there is no getting around the need for coal. The stocks are cheap on forward earnings. Buy them.

The world is not going to go dark --- especially China. Wake up and smell the cleaner burning coal fumes.

Monday Options Outlook: LEH, WM, RF, CNX, ACI, AKS, OXPS, FRP

Buy Arch Coal and the rest of the group --- the Chinese will come back because they have no choice and we will elect McCain for the same reason. Bought ACI at 35 a few days ago and holding the position --- which is a first in the last six months. Will sell half at 55 and the rest depending on market conditions.