einstein p fleet

Expect Big Gains from Sociedad Qumica y Minera de Chile

Been dollar cost averaging SQM from 15 up to the high 20s. It's a triple play on the future. One drawback may be if Bolivia decides to take a page out of the Venezuelan playbook but, sans that, it's a great stock to own as the auto industry converts to lithium batteries and the need for fertilizer rebounds.

Stocks to Watch if Crude Oil Heats Up

Built a position in the low 20s on SQM and it seems to be stuck in the low 30s. Lithium is key to the company's future, but it may also be holding down the price in the short term due to the ongoing problems in the car industry. AGU looks more interesting right here, after having reported a fair quarter --- to be kind --- and holding it's ground.

Agrochemical Sector a Bright Spot in Slowing Global Economy

I haven't scene any evidence that fertilizer prices are tanking, particularly the price of potash. The stock prices have completely detached from the fundamentals and the underlying value of the companies.

POT was buying a stake in an Israeli competitor, as well as buying back their own shares. Not just the company, but management.

Agree with John Egan. I'm even beginning to wonder if patience is still a virtue or a sucker play in this market.

Agrochemical Sector a Bright Spot in Slowing Global Economy

POT beat estimates by 36 cents!

Yes, they lowered guidance (which they raised last quarter) down to a mere 12-13 dollars a share for 2008 which would have them at a multiple of 7X this years earnings while growing revenue at a sluggish 500% year over year.

I'm not quite sure what it takes to get the stock moving anymore. Clearly, earnings, growth, and value is not the answer.

Potash and Agrium Targets Slashed - UBS Analyst

POT at 66 --- now there is 100 points to the upside.

The funny thing is that I read that POT and MOS were "holding" their current prices, not raising them to 1000 a tonne, due to the current environment. Didn't POT raise full year guidance last quarter when they crushed their earnings ---- which caused the stock to nosedive?

Does the guy from UBS still have a buy rating on POT or is 100 points to the upside not enough in this environment without a dividend?

Potash and Agrium Targets Slashed - UBS Analyst

The UBS price target is "slashed" to 165 and POT is currently selling for 75 a share. Assuming the time frame is 12 months, what's the problem?

Most likely, it's a conservative estimate --- which is more likely to be revised up when the stock hits 180 or if CARGILL decides to buy the remaining stake in MOS at a substantial premium.

Mosaic Misses Earnings and Brings Down the Sector

No pain, no gain. MOS is cheap by any metric --- depending on your time horizon and pain tolerance.

Bought POT today again at 82 an sold 3/4 of the position at 98.

I own both of these stocks much higher and am underwater. Doesn't mean you can't close the gap and trade around a core position. I agree with Smart Stops --- you have to be cautious. That said, you also have to buy stocks that are channeling, have great fundamentals, and are willing to own for the long term.

The world is not coming to an end --- it's just a lot more cynical and difficult than the past. Maybe that's a good thing.

Mosaic Misses Earnings and Brings Down the Sector

Channel the stock from 32 to 35, leaving a bit on the table. Company is cheap and looks like it wants to put in a bottom.

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

If the global markets are melting down, then it would make sense that the earnings are too high. China seems to have disappeared for the moment, but the Chinese government has also been very critical about the Western lending standards that lead to the current crisis. In fact, they claim that they have very little exposure to the problems we face.

Last quarter POT reported better than expected earnings and raised full year guidance. The company was aware of the strike, but the credit crunch may now be a factor for this coming quarter into early 2009.

Personally, I don't know what to make of this article ---- or the market for that matter. Lot's of different opinions, no consensus.

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

Wheat and other grains, like oil, are experiencing declines in pricing while at the same time running very low inventories. It's like driving your car on fumes and hoping to find a gas station before you run out of gas. You can run on reserve for a while, but sooner or later you have to fill up the tank.

I'm not saying that the market is done going down, but I'm convinced that commodities have been oversold. You can't eat gold or heat your home with it. It's your grandfather's hedge.

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

China cannot stop buying coal either. They may be absent for now, but not for long. It's a typical Chinese negotiating ploy and they are some of the best negotiators in the world. Trust me, I lived and worked in Hong Kong for over 25 years. If the global economy tanks, they will turn their attention to rebuilding their infrastructure and buying undervalued assets abroad --- particularly commodities if they are allowed to do so. The metric is population and it's growing worldwide.

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

"Canaccord Adams, however, joined the bullish camp for fertilizer producers..." Huh? Boy, I'd hate to see the new price targets if they ever get bearish.

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

If SB Tiger is right, then the miner's strike at POT wouldn't be a problem. The fact is that the strike is creating a shortage causing deliveries of potash to be rationed and delayed until early 2009. MOS confirmed that potash demand was robust and there was pricing power due to short supply. That doesn't sound like a bubble bursting to me.

Carl Martin had it right --- there are more than five reasons that are driving stocks down and none of them have to do with the underlying fundamentals. Since when is a stock like MOS that makes 1.3B dollars, grows at over 300%, and trades at a forward PE of 2.5 a "momentum" play? Value and growth are not easy to find --- and no one seems to care given that they market is being driven by emotion and capital preservation.

I'm not smart enough to call a bottom to the market, but I spot a bargain. Get ready for major stock repurchases, increased dividends, and a lot of M&A activity. The market is creating some great buying opportunities.

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

There are so many factors at play, it makes your head spin.

Many people are comparing the "commodity" bubble to the dot com bubble. Frankly, I don't see the comparison at all. MOS may have missed, but they still made 1.2B for the quarter and trades at a forward PE of just over 2. How does one compare that to dot com companies that made little or no money and or were trading at triple digit multiples?

The build up in inventory shouldn't be a surprise considering the current credit situation. Farmers need credit to purchase seed, fertilizer, and equipment. Purchases have been delayed. Unfortunately, it's the height of planting season. I would be more inclined to worry about food shortages, than the price of MOS --- which is ridiculously cheap, along with the rest of the group.

In regard to more supply coming on line, I have a couple of thoughts. Firstly, if the business is so bad why would companies like Rio Tinto or BHP Billiton want to get in at the top? To the contrary, I would not be surprised to see BHP make a bid for one or more of these companies instead at current levels. POT is buying back a great deal of their own stock, which they considered extremely undervalued.

Once the hedge funds are done selling, credit returns to normal, and the market looks at the fundamentals, I'm sure that Mr. Mickey is right. When that will be, however, no one knows. I've been wrong on POT and MOS for 40 points each. Ouch!

What's in Store for the Fertilizer Industry?

There are a lot of great companies on sale right now, POT being one of them. At 150-155, I'm a buyer. I don't think that anyone can call a bottom to the commodity sell off --- but you do need a tolerance for pain to buy these stocks right now.