einstein p fleet

Monday Options Update: POT, XLF, NCC, SOV, GD, AAPL, RIMM, C, BGG

Well, so far everyone ---- including me --- has POT and MOS wrong.

Personally, I think the credit crunch has a lot to do with it and I worry that we will see ramifications in the form of food shortages next year. People may have to tighten their belts a bit more than expected.

I've seen several comparisons to the dot com bubble which I find difficult to understand. POT and MOS trade at low PE ratios, especially going forward, throw off a ton of cash, and have a viable business model. A lot of other basic material and infrastructure stocks seem to be in the same position. How would you compare that to JDSU or the other dot com busts that traded at insane multiples and did little or no business to speak of? MOS may have missed earnings, but they still made over 1.3B, trade and trade at less than 3X estimated 2009 earnings. What am I missing here?

Monday Options Update: POT, XLF, NCC, SOV, GD, AAPL, RIMM, C, BGG

Citi Investment Research analyst, Brian Yu, reiterated his BUY rating on MOS today due his "positive long-term position on the North American fertilizer market." Interesting, considering his downgrade of AGU, TRA, and CF last week. As far as I know, he still has a buy rating on POT, which I consider best in breed.

The credit crunch may impede the ability of farmers to buy seed and fertilizer in the USA during planting season. The implications of food shortages or having to import more food as a result, may be another selling point that was missed the other day.