einstein p fleet

Chinese Stimulus Will Stay to Achieve 8% GDP Growth

PCX reported strong earnings, which would lead me to believe that ANR is a strong buy under 36 --- they report on November 2 and we'll get to test the theory.


On Oct 26 08:58 PM einstein p fleet wrote:

> China is building a coal plant each and every week, plus building
> cars. ANR seems like a good bet --- gives you two ways to play the
> China story.

Chinese Stimulus Will Stay to Achieve 8% GDP Growth

China is building a coal plant each and every week, plus building cars. ANR seems like a good bet --- gives you two ways to play the China story.

Walter Energy: Overvalued and Overbought

Bought this stock at 22 and averaged down to 11. Got out at 32, which was too early, but I'm not going to complain.

Think the natural gas stocks are far too cheap in relation to the price of oil. Have been accumulating positions in both American and Canadian Trusts and MLPs. Some have paid off handsomely, such as LINE and ATN, others are treading water, collecting dividends. In this market, that's okay. Dollar is heading down and oil is heading back up to the mid seventies.

25 Big Companies Worth a Look

This isn't the type of market where a "buy and hold" strategy necessary pays off, but it can be if you combine building a core position with a trading strategy. I have build a core position with BUCY at about 13 dollars a share, but have been trading it between 12.50 and 13.50, bring my actually cost basis down to around 8.50 a share.

There are a lot of great companies out there that appear cheap. I used to think that MOS was a steal at 60 dollars. Perceptions change along with the prices.

As long as the market continues to act this way, I think the only way to make money is to buy stocks that you don't mind owning over the long run ---- provided they pay a dividend ---- and trade around the core positions.

Renewable Energy Reality: We're Dependent on Coal

RTK is using a similar technology right now. Interesting company. Just signed a deal to produce synthetic jet fuel to the US Air Force. It's clean and green, which is a step in the right direction.

Interesting conversation ----- what say we burn another log and toss GUMBY on the fire?


On Jan 13 01:18 AM wallyjm wrote:

> germany made coal into diesel fuel to power their submarines in ww2

The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities

The price of oil is unsustainable at these levels for any period of time and, the longer it stays under 40 dollars a barrel, the more likely it will spring load the price higher. Too many countries are dependent on oil to fund social programs and their economies. I wouldn't be surprised to see a geo-political event or a series of events next year --- unfortunately. With the printing presses running at full speed and the Fed rate at virtually zero, there is very little in the arsenal to fight inflation or support the US dollar. I agree that you need the basic essentials --- food, shelter, and energy --- to live and that commodities provide the basis for what we need. You can't eat gold, but I guess it comes in handy if you have a cavity.

Despite the call for nuclear power, I don't see it replacing coal in the near future. Obama needs to create jobs now and nuclear takes time and planning. As much as everyone likes the concept of cheap nuclear energy to power the country, I doubt they are going to be willing to pay for building it out for the next twenty years or have a plant in their own backyards. Obama may well need to change his stance and embrace coal and technologies that allow for cleaner coal, rather than look for ways to bankrupt the mining companies. China is still building coal factories and they will continue to do so. For that reason I like the dry bulk shippers (EXM, PRGN, FRO), the coal mining and equipment companies, (BTU, WLT, JOYG), and the infrastructure plays (FWLT, FLR).

I'm not sure that there is pent up demand for new cars anymore than there is pent up demand for new homes, but if I did I would want to bet on hybrids which require lithium batteries (SQM). I've been wondering why smaller home builders have not collapsed, but it seems to me that will have to happen before we see a bottom.

The American consumer is tapped, which was evident from retail sales this year ---- culminating with a terrible holiday season. I wouldn't be surprised to see massive credit card defaults in the beginning of 2009, followed by a collapse in the commercial real estate market. It's ironic that the American taxpayer bailed out the banks and in return the banks cut credit lines and upped the interest rates to levels nothing short of usury.

Next year might prove to be even tougher than 2008, but I'm hopeful that things will gradually improve. Every asset class in the world was overvalued and came back to Earth. If you pick the right spots and have any cash left in your pockets, it could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

Coal's Dark Days Are Over

I don't really understand why the earnings from BTU was such a surprise. Coal is primarily used for electricity. People are spending more time at home --- watching television, playing video games on computers. There are also more people working from home. I seriously doubt they are doing it in the dark.

China is going to have to come back to market sooner or later and they are dependent on coal for electricity.

From what I heard during the conference call, the credit crunch impaired the ability of several coal companies, which means there will be less coal and price support. It could also create consolidation in the group.

I've been buying ACI, BTU, and WLT.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

If I were the Chinese government, I would sit on the sidelines and watch the meltdown proceed. When prices got cheap enough, I would buy dry bulk shipping companies, steel, iron ore, copper, lithium, fertilizer, seed, and coal companies.

The future is not in precious metals. It's strictly a hedge. The real danger is losing Park Place and Boardwalk.

Just a thought.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

It's almost Xmas. Time to buy some coal for your stocking.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

The commodity markets are trading as if the world is coming to an end. The underlying equities are trading even worse.

The sell off in POT and MOS has been brutal, as has been the sell off in nearly every equity in the basic material and infrastructure space. A lot of these companies generate huge cash flow and business is strong. MOS may have disappointed analysts expectations, but the company is making a lot of money. It seems as if the companies are willing to let their share price go lower in order to initiate the most bang for their buy back buck --- or they will take themselves private.

Don't be surprised to see a lot of M&A in the near future, especially if stock prices continue to plunge. These stocks all have plenty of cash on the balance sheets.

Today's True Safe Haven Investments

No offense, but this is a ridiculous blog.

China needs coal and the world needs energy ---- especially during the transition to natural gas and other alternative fuels. This will take time to achieve, but it will happen over the next ten years. Must admit, I prefer natural gas as a green play, but there is no getting around the need for coal. The stocks are cheap on forward earnings. Buy them.

The world is not going to go dark --- especially China. Wake up and smell the cleaner burning coal fumes.