johnhaskell

The Housing Bubble Isn't Funny Anymore

"She urged homeowners not to panic and leave their home just because they receive a foreclosure notice from their lender, and she said they should demand that the mortgage-holder produce a mortgage audit."

sorry, what part of that is illegal?

I guess it would be better to move out and let vandals destroy the bank's collateral. Yes, that would be better for everyone.


On Feb 04 08:46 AM Rhett wrote:

> Any government official who advocates breaking the law - any law-
> should be fired or impeached. Period. There are other ways of dealing
> with economic hardship - legal ways.

Predicting 60% Decline for Manhattan Property; TARP for Trump?

1. Rent control only applies in NYC, not the whole metro.
2. It applies to a small minority of apartments
3. The shift from renting to owning has already happened, due to the recent bubble and absurd financing structures. It's impossible for NYC to have yet another huge shift into owning.


On Feb 04 03:11 PM Sanibel wrote:

> New York City real estate values are distorted because of rent control.
> Many people prefer to rent because it is cheaper than a mortgage
> for a home. As home prices come down the monthly mortgage cost becomes
> closer to rents, won't we see a dramatic shift from renting to owning?
> It seems to me this pressure limits the downward risk of real estate,
> at least in Manhattan. Any thoughts on this?

Predicting 60% Decline for Manhattan Property; TARP for Trump?

other 60% declines:
Hong Kong past decade
Tokyo 1989-present
Any major German city 1991-present

and I didn't have to even get into the history of the nutmeg market.


On Feb 04 02:28 PM P. K. wrote:

> This is a reasoned and logical argument, but where is the historical
> data to support the proposition? If you eliminate the decline of
> values in one company towns, appreciate that the Dutch Monarchy operated
> a brutal and repressive colonial regime that led to their declining
> fortunes once Nutmeg became a spice rather than the cure all for
> the Black Plague; do you have an example of a 60% decline outside
> of the current crisis, which has more to do with over leveraging
> the system, than the product? Real Estate is a supply and demand,
> highest best use commodity; do you see a 60% decline in net migration
> to NYC?

One Reason Why Banks Are Not Lending

why should banks lend? The Fed is doing it for them, at interest rates which do not take into account a long and deep recession. TARP funds are rationally better used to buy out the competition.

Keep in mind two things: this is the Administration that was in charge of the recovery from Katrina, and you can't spell "worst president ever" unless you start with a "W."

This will help you put ineffective policy responses into context.

Please Close the Markets

since there are no buyers, I assume volume on the NYSE today is zero? Please confirm this.

BTW the Russian market in 1998 fell 93% in twelve months but trades continued to be put through the system and buyers found, even though no one was protecting them, kissing them where it hurt or giving them a hug when they fell down.

History Says That We'll Be Fine

if you bought the Dow at 1000 in 1966 you suffered a 75% inflation adjusted loss by 1982. But by 1994 the Dow was above 4000 so you were back to even (pretax). Sounds great!

Naked Shorting Needs to Be Stopped

I advocate adoption of the Pakistani model, under which trades cannot take place unless they are at a price higher than the previous trade. Under this system, hard working American families who invest in the stock market will be guaranteed a profit, and shorts will be crushed.

Lack of Integrity: 10th Bank Failure of 2008 on Poor Risk Management

It's nice to know that Integrity management spent a lot of time praying to Jesus. Too bad Jesus forgot to tell them not to make high LTV loans in the Atlanta area.

MBIA Reinsures $184 Billion from FGIC’s Public Finance Book

Buffett and MBIA aren't really competing- Buffett has a AAA rating in contrast to MBIA's "off brand" reinsurance.

Japan's Largest Private Equity Firm? The Mob

if the yakuza are getting out of drugs and prostitution to become day traders, the profit margins in drugs and prostitution must have fallen to near zero.

BTW I am wondering what is the competitive advantage for a trader moving over to a yakuza controlled firm. Do such firms have better pension plans or benefits than "legitimate" firms? If you make a mistake writing up a ticket do they cut off your pinkie? Presumably Japanese headhunting firms (now that's an interesting pun) would have the answers.

As Japan Considers Lowering Capital Gains, U.S. Is Yet to See the Light

"hopefully it won't take 10 years of bad stock performance" to bring about a change in US tax policy...how does a 1% real return 1998-2008 strike you?

Anyway this doesn't matter because a cut in the capital gains tax, although it might increase Federal revenues, would not help "fairness" and "equity," which are Obama's stated goals for the tax system to achieve.

Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive

Per Bloomberg www.bloomberg.com/apps... Thornburg management is seeking a "new business model" either as a generator of conforming mortgages or as a bank. In other words management concedes that there is no value in their previous business model. How much would you pay for Thornburg's office supplies and furniture? Because that's pretty much what they've got.

I worked up an earnings model for Thornburg, it goes like this:
12% cost of funds > 7% interest rate collected on mortgages = TMA.BK.

As for the "pop" from $0.25 to $0.35, it has been my experience that penny stocks "pop" all the time, but it's usually because of a spam blast.

The Hedge Fund Hustle

Aaron Krowne- you say that there are widespread shortages in the gold and silver markets.

Can you please identify any gold or silver smelters, or jewelry manufacturers/ distributors/ retailers that have ceased operations because of their inability to purchase gold and/ or silver for dollars? Thank you.

As for the crybabies who keep saying that 40-to-1 levered companies long US mortgages and dope-smoking CEO's could only go bankrupt because of a conspiracy, please just stop talking. The adults here are getting tired of hearing the same thing over and over again.

Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull

anyone who disagrees with Chopin is a "liar." How much more proof do you need?!

WaMu: Intensification of Stealth Buying

Aus banks have many of the same problems as US banks (house price appreciation in Aus 2002- present makes California look like it was standing still). But Aus and NZ banks have no deposit insurance! So their depositors may also be "sleeping like babies."

Certainly the investors in their bankrupt brokerages (who woke up to find that the broker had gone bankrupt, taking their retirement money with them) are.