johnhaskell's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/209288/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/118348-the-housing-bubble-isn-t-funny-anymore?source=feed#comment-376147 376147
sorry, what part of that is illegal?

I guess it would be better to move out and let vandals destroy the bank's collateral. Yes, that would be better for everyone.


On Feb 04 08:46 AM Rhett wrote:

> Any government official who advocates breaking the law - any law-
> should be fired or impeached. Period. There are other ways of dealing
> with economic hardship - legal ways.]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:37:21 -0500
sorry, what part of that is illegal?

I guess it would be better to move out and let vandals destroy the bank's collateral. Yes, that would be better for everyone.


On Feb 04 08:46 AM Rhett wrote:

> Any government official who advocates breaking the law - any law-
> should be fired or impeached. Period. There are other ways of dealing
> with economic hardship - legal ways.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118333-predicting-60-decline-for-manhattan-property-tarp-for-trump?source=feed#comment-376138 376138 2. It applies to a small minority of apartments
3. The shift from renting to owning has already happened, due to the recent bubble and absurd financing structures. It's impossible for NYC to have yet another huge shift into owning.


On Feb 04 03:11 PM Sanibel wrote:

> New York City real estate values are distorted because of rent control.
> Many people prefer to rent because it is cheaper than a mortgage
> for a home. As home prices come down the monthly mortgage cost becomes
> closer to rents, won't we see a dramatic shift from renting to owning?
> It seems to me this pressure limits the downward risk of real estate,
> at least in Manhattan. Any thoughts on this?]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:33:59 -0500 2. It applies to a small minority of apartments
3. The shift from renting to owning has already happened, due to the recent bubble and absurd financing structures. It's impossible for NYC to have yet another huge shift into owning.


On Feb 04 03:11 PM Sanibel wrote:

> New York City real estate values are distorted because of rent control.
> Many people prefer to rent because it is cheaper than a mortgage
> for a home. As home prices come down the monthly mortgage cost becomes
> closer to rents, won't we see a dramatic shift from renting to owning?
> It seems to me this pressure limits the downward risk of real estate,
> at least in Manhattan. Any thoughts on this?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118333-predicting-60-decline-for-manhattan-property-tarp-for-trump?source=feed#comment-376136 376136 Hong Kong past decade
Tokyo 1989-present
Any major German city 1991-present

and I didn't have to even get into the history of the nutmeg market.


On Feb 04 02:28 PM P. K. wrote:

> This is a reasoned and logical argument, but where is the historical
> data to support the proposition? If you eliminate the decline of
> values in one company towns, appreciate that the Dutch Monarchy operated
> a brutal and repressive colonial regime that led to their declining
> fortunes once Nutmeg became a spice rather than the cure all for
> the Black Plague; do you have an example of a 60% decline outside
> of the current crisis, which has more to do with over leveraging
> the system, than the product? Real Estate is a supply and demand,
> highest best use commodity; do you see a 60% decline in net migration
> to NYC?]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:32:13 -0500 Hong Kong past decade
Tokyo 1989-present
Any major German city 1991-present

and I didn't have to even get into the history of the nutmeg market.


On Feb 04 02:28 PM P. K. wrote:

> This is a reasoned and logical argument, but where is the historical
> data to support the proposition? If you eliminate the decline of
> values in one company towns, appreciate that the Dutch Monarchy operated
> a brutal and repressive colonial regime that led to their declining
> fortunes once Nutmeg became a spice rather than the cure all for
> the Black Plague; do you have an example of a 60% decline outside
> of the current crisis, which has more to do with over leveraging
> the system, than the product? Real Estate is a supply and demand,
> highest best use commodity; do you see a 60% decline in net migration
> to NYC?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102034-one-reason-why-banks-are-not-lending?source=feed#comment-291551 291551
Keep in mind two things: this is the Administration that was in charge of the recovery from Katrina, and you can't spell "worst president ever" unless you start with a "W."

This will help you put ineffective policy responses into context.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:49:35 -0400
Keep in mind two things: this is the Administration that was in charge of the recovery from Katrina, and you can't spell "worst president ever" unless you start with a "W."

This will help you put ineffective policy responses into context.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101945-please-close-the-markets?source=feed#comment-291547 291547
BTW the Russian market in 1998 fell 93% in twelve months but trades continued to be put through the system and buyers found, even though no one was protecting them, kissing them where it hurt or giving them a hug when they fell down.]]> Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:46:56 -0400
BTW the Russian market in 1998 fell 93% in twelve months but trades continued to be put through the system and buyers found, even though no one was protecting them, kissing them where it hurt or giving them a hug when they fell down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99643-history-says-that-we-ll-be-fine?source=feed#comment-281277 281277 Mon, 13 Oct 2008 10:56:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95945-naked-shorting-needs-to-be-stopped?source=feed#comment-258022 258022 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:39:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93665-lack-of-integrity-10th-bank-failure-of-2008-on-poor-risk-management?source=feed#comment-244491 244491 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:54:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93056-mbia-reinsures-184-billion-from-fgics-public-finance-book?source=feed#comment-241729 241729 Fri, 29 Aug 2008 12:39:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93103-japan-s-largest-private-equity-firm-the-mob?source=feed#comment-241727 241727
BTW I am wondering what is the competitive advantage for a trader moving over to a yakuza controlled firm. Do such firms have better pension plans or benefits than "legitimate" firms? If you make a mistake writing up a ticket do they cut off your pinkie? Presumably Japanese headhunting firms (now that's an interesting pun) would have the answers.]]> Fri, 29 Aug 2008 12:37:52 -0400
BTW I am wondering what is the competitive advantage for a trader moving over to a yakuza controlled firm. Do such firms have better pension plans or benefits than "legitimate" firms? If you make a mistake writing up a ticket do they cut off your pinkie? Presumably Japanese headhunting firms (now that's an interesting pun) would have the answers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92752-as-japan-considers-lowering-capital-gains-u-s-is-yet-to-see-the-light?source=feed#comment-240254 240254
Anyway this doesn't matter because a cut in the capital gains tax, although it might increase Federal revenues, would not help "fairness" and "equity," which are Obama's stated goals for the tax system to achieve.]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:56:28 -0400
Anyway this doesn't matter because a cut in the capital gains tax, although it might increase Federal revenues, would not help "fairness" and "equity," which are Obama's stated goals for the tax system to achieve.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91987-why-thornburg-mortgage-will-survive?source=feed#comment-236718 236718 www.bloomberg.com/apps... Thornburg management is seeking a "new business model" either as a generator of conforming mortgages or as a bank. In other words management concedes that there is no value in their previous business model. How much would you pay for Thornburg's office supplies and furniture? Because that's pretty much what they've got.

I worked up an earnings model for Thornburg, it goes like this:
12% cost of funds > 7% interest rate collected on mortgages = TMA.BK.

As for the "pop" from $0.25 to $0.35, it has been my experience that penny stocks "pop" all the time, but it's usually because of a spam blast.]]> Fri, 22 Aug 2008 14:53:56 -0400 www.bloomberg.com/apps... Thornburg management is seeking a "new business model" either as a generator of conforming mortgages or as a bank. In other words management concedes that there is no value in their previous business model. How much would you pay for Thornburg's office supplies and furniture? Because that's pretty much what they've got.

I worked up an earnings model for Thornburg, it goes like this:
12% cost of funds > 7% interest rate collected on mortgages = TMA.BK.

As for the "pop" from $0.25 to $0.35, it has been my experience that penny stocks "pop" all the time, but it's usually because of a spam blast.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91148-the-hedge-fund-hustle?source=feed#comment-233261 233261
Can you please identify any gold or silver smelters, or jewelry manufacturers/ distributors/ retailers that have ceased operations because of their inability to purchase gold and/ or silver for dollars? Thank you.

As for the crybabies who keep saying that 40-to-1 levered companies long US mortgages and dope-smoking CEO's could only go bankrupt because of a conspiracy, please just stop talking. The adults here are getting tired of hearing the same thing over and over again.]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:40:42 -0400
Can you please identify any gold or silver smelters, or jewelry manufacturers/ distributors/ retailers that have ceased operations because of their inability to purchase gold and/ or silver for dollars? Thank you.

As for the crybabies who keep saying that 40-to-1 levered companies long US mortgages and dope-smoking CEO's could only go bankrupt because of a conspiracy, please just stop talking. The adults here are getting tired of hearing the same thing over and over again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91137-don-t-believe-the-lies-ride-the-bank-stocks-bull?source=feed#comment-231207 231207 Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:33:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90657-wamu-intensification-of-stealth-buying?source=feed#comment-229672 229672
Certainly the investors in their bankrupt brokerages (who woke up to find that the broker had gone bankrupt, taking their retirement money with them) are.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:01:31 -0400
Certainly the investors in their bankrupt brokerages (who woke up to find that the broker had gone bankrupt, taking their retirement money with them) are.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90727-financials-to-resume-meltdown-momentarily?source=feed#comment-229579 229579
Mr Schwarz has himself rounded up the "usual suspects" by telling us that this one month "ban" is ending (anyone with a calendar could have told you that), repeating information well known on the street (#2,3) and speculating (#4).

The only information that matters in finance is information that surprises the market. None of these four points qualifies.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 13:51:13 -0400
Mr Schwarz has himself rounded up the "usual suspects" by telling us that this one month "ban" is ending (anyone with a calendar could have told you that), repeating information well known on the street (#2,3) and speculating (#4).

The only information that matters in finance is information that surprises the market. None of these four points qualifies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90657-wamu-intensification-of-stealth-buying?source=feed#comment-229519 229519
As for spotting Toscafund's purchase, you didn't need "painstaking analysis" but rather access to Yahoo Finance. Well, OK, maybe you consider that is the same thing.

BTW I hear the smart money is pouring into WCI- with Icahn as Chairman of the Board and Steve Cohen also buying how can you lose? Oh and here's another one- I hear Leon Black really likes "Linens 'n' Things."

Whenever you get ready to analyze WM's balance sheet and explain to us how they will get through the crunch without raising any more capital (which they can't because of the TPG deal) I'll be glad to read it. (However repeating mgmt's assertions to that effect do not count.)]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 12:44:05 -0400
As for spotting Toscafund's purchase, you didn't need "painstaking analysis" but rather access to Yahoo Finance. Well, OK, maybe you consider that is the same thing.

BTW I hear the smart money is pouring into WCI- with Icahn as Chairman of the Board and Steve Cohen also buying how can you lose? Oh and here's another one- I hear Leon Black really likes "Linens 'n' Things."

Whenever you get ready to analyze WM's balance sheet and explain to us how they will get through the crunch without raising any more capital (which they can't because of the TPG deal) I'll be glad to read it. (However repeating mgmt's assertions to that effect do not count.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90628-nyt-dilemma-cut-dividend-or-get-junked?source=feed#comment-229352 229352 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:13:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89515-wsj-chooses-spin-over-precision?source=feed#comment-225003 225003 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:27:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88242-is-david-einhorn-smarter-than-i-am?source=feed#comment-219342 219342 Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:28:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88177-why-merrill-s-cdo-sale-doesn-t-mean-big-writeoffs-elsewhere?source=feed#comment-219335 219335
Second, Thain was a new broom in mid January when he supposedly "kitchen sinked" the balance sheet. After multiple assurances that MER was well capitalized, and six months at the helm, it's a little late to say "oh what a surprise! how did this junk get here?!"]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 11:25:18 -0400
Second, Thain was a new broom in mid January when he supposedly "kitchen sinked" the balance sheet. After multiple assurances that MER was well capitalized, and six months at the helm, it's a little late to say "oh what a surprise! how did this junk get here?!"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84584-fannie-freddie-myth-vs-reality?source=feed#comment-202955 202955
Finally, if their portfolio is sound and they are only taking mark to market losses which will be recouped later (same argument MBI and ABK make, by the way) why do they need to raise any real cash at all? Many companies have a negative net worth, but if you have actual positive cash flow you just keep on trucking. Your stock would not fall 40% in an hour.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 10:27:42 -0400
Finally, if their portfolio is sound and they are only taking mark to market losses which will be recouped later (same argument MBI and ABK make, by the way) why do they need to raise any real cash at all? Many companies have a negative net worth, but if you have actual positive cash flow you just keep on trucking. Your stock would not fall 40% in an hour.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84329-we-love-you-freddie-we-love-you-not?source=feed#comment-202305 202305
FRE and FNM don't have to sell their mortgages now. But they do have to borrow money in the market and assure the market somehow that they are good for the funds they borrow. Furthermore, they should in theory have some equity cushion over and above their debt. Now of course you and Robert Mugabe would say "no equity cushion is needed, we can just print money as necessary to keep them liquid," and that is the scenario that the equity market is increasingly pricing in.]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:18:23 -0400
FRE and FNM don't have to sell their mortgages now. But they do have to borrow money in the market and assure the market somehow that they are good for the funds they borrow. Furthermore, they should in theory have some equity cushion over and above their debt. Now of course you and Robert Mugabe would say "no equity cushion is needed, we can just print money as necessary to keep them liquid," and that is the scenario that the equity market is increasingly pricing in.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84405-ubs-can-it-get-any-worse?source=feed#comment-202252 202252
None of this of course is to say that UBS will necessarily thrive in such an environment as there are many other banks- particularly those that operate only in CH and so can't be leaned on by other countries- that are probably better havens.]]> Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:31:39 -0400
None of this of course is to say that UBS will necessarily thrive in such an environment as there are many other banks- particularly those that operate only in CH and so can't be leaned on by other countries- that are probably better havens.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84250-why-140-barrel-crude-is-unsustainable?source=feed#comment-201458 201458
The Saudis always lie because they don't want to tell the truth, which is:
1. Khurais is a joke- never produced more than 144kbopd and was shut in in 1981
2. They don't have any other capacity anywhere in the country
3. They've explored everywhere and found nothing that we don't already know about
4. OPEC is a joke; they are all producing at capacity just as if they were in Texas or the North Sea.

Some of us learned about trusting the Saudis on 9/11. Others have yet to learn the lesson.]]> Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:43:33 -0400
The Saudis always lie because they don't want to tell the truth, which is:
1. Khurais is a joke- never produced more than 144kbopd and was shut in in 1981
2. They don't have any other capacity anywhere in the country
3. They've explored everywhere and found nothing that we don't already know about
4. OPEC is a joke; they are all producing at capacity just as if they were in Texas or the North Sea.

Some of us learned about trusting the Saudis on 9/11. Others have yet to learn the lesson.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83914-the-world-s-revenge?source=feed#comment-200518 200518
Buying gold makes a lot of sense, but the argument is substantially stronger when you support it with arguments that are fresher than 2003.]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 09:52:08 -0400
Buying gold makes a lot of sense, but the argument is substantially stronger when you support it with arguments that are fresher than 2003.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83140-the-fed-is-banking-on-hedge-funds-but-merrill-lynch-can-t?source=feed#comment-198217 198217
What's even more interesting than the stock performance of C, NCC, WM, BKUNA etc is the frenzied excuse making and conspiracy theorizing that so much of the investment community indulges in rather than acknowledge that they backed incompetent management.]]> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:08:21 -0400
What's even more interesting than the stock performance of C, NCC, WM, BKUNA etc is the frenzied excuse making and conspiracy theorizing that so much of the investment community indulges in rather than acknowledge that they backed incompetent management.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82230-david-einhorn-the-irony-of-it-all?source=feed#comment-198153 198153 Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:40:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82986-so-you-think-oils-expensive-now?source=feed#comment-194314 194314 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:49:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82989-how-i-plan-to-trade-my-depressed-gm-stock?source=feed#comment-194245 194245
It's a very special management team that can get their stock back to where it was in December 1974- after the first oil crisis, Nixon's pardon, South Vietnam collapsing...and that's not even adjusted for inflation!

Jog my memory on how GM's diversification efforts into satellites, data management and subprime lending worked out?

I hope you'll stay in the market, though, as the rest of us need someone to trade against. Have you thought about shorting oil? The Saudis say they have a lot, and they would never lie about something like that.]]> Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:48:46 -0400
It's a very special management team that can get their stock back to where it was in December 1974- after the first oil crisis, Nixon's pardon, South Vietnam collapsing...and that's not even adjusted for inflation!

Jog my memory on how GM's diversification efforts into satellites, data management and subprime lending worked out?

I hope you'll stay in the market, though, as the rest of us need someone to trade against. Have you thought about shorting oil? The Saudis say they have a lot, and they would never lie about something like that.]]>