Seeking Alpha

sameer976

sameer976
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View sameer976's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Molycorp's CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Not looking to be too ambitious but I'm targetting $7.85-$8.35 ...this reminds me a lot of First Solar from last year when everyone prescribed this stock and the sector dead ... but a year on and FSLR is trading at double its lows and teh Solar market hasnt got that much better. What's even better about this company is it is a great strategic fit for one of the bigger miners

    However in all honesty all it takes is for some option traders to purchase some $7.50 calls and drive it that way for a month and we'll see $8 and someone will then start talking about the turnaround ...fun and games
    Mar 15, 2013. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu's Much Needed Sina Weibo Leap Of Faith [View article]
    momentum is terrible, Fundamentals are gorgeous .... Closed my eyes and bought today at $95, and did the same with Apple at $542 ... the market is fretting about Apple and Baidu losing market share of search/tablet markets but wwhen the pie is growing you can cope with a few slices let alone crumbs going to the competitors. They will both still be the dominant players by far in at best can be described as an Oligopoly transition
    Nov 14, 2012. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon: Might The Best Deal Be The Coupon On The Company's Own Shares? [View article]
    The April 2013 $2.50 call at 65 cents seems like a waste of money given its going to take some time to turn things around in Europe for sure, and increasing competition in the space.

    Assuming that they dont erode cash balance over the next 4-6 months, I'm think selling the April 2013 $2.50 put at 51 cents looks like a possible 20 percenter and if it all goes south you're into the stock at breakeven of $1.99 :-)
    Nov 13, 2012. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Apple Weren't A Tech Stock? [View article]
    "Sales of U.S. structured notes tied
    to the share price of Apple Inc. climbed to $1.47 billion this
    year, on the verge of overtaking the London interbank offered
    rate as the second most commonly linked underlying."

    This is the source of the Volatility of the Stock price in 2012 ... for the period 2008-2011 stock transactions were dominated by non-leveraged money. We are now in the world of option barriers, reverse convertibles, barrier knockouts etc. ....

    If someone out there can write an article on where they see key strikes on options/structured notes are over the next 3 months then you will have the proxy where to buy and where to sell.

    For my 2 cents worth I agree its time to buy Apple today but only 30-50% of what you want to invest and invest the rest by holding as margin against selling the FEB 13 $500 strike Puts at $25 today wil give you an entry at $475 which is 2/3 of the peak price and one half of what the supposed fair valuation is. If the market rallies from here u are happy u are invested and also your short puts expire worthless
    Nov 9, 2012. 06:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Groupon (GRPN -5%) tumbles below $5 after Evercore's Ken Sena downgrades shares for the second time in less than a month (previous). Now rating Groupon an Underweight, Sena forecasts the company will post 2013 EBITDA of $260M, well below a $470M consensus. He also sees the potential for further cash burn if billings continue to decline. Groupon has now fallen 37% since posting its Q2 report[View news story]
    "Groupon reported revenues of $568.3m (£363.2m) in the three months to June. This marked a 45 per cent increase year on year but was below the average analyst estimate of $575.3m (£366.7m) for the period."

    A little bit of context ... seems to me that i can invest in a company which grows revenue 45% yoy and falls 30% plus in a week due to that fact .... in at 4.55 and 4.75 and will be again in on Monday
    Aug 17, 2012. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy Alcatel-Lucent After Huge Declines? [View article]
    Perhaps Alcatel and Nokia can apply to Germany for a bailout, i'm sure the Germans would prefer that to holding debt that they will probably never get repaid on ... it would only cost them about 5bn Euros in total , and would actually create some jobs!
    Jul 18, 2012. 06:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Why Investors Are Buying This Recession Proof Stock Now [View article]
    The bounce the last few days in the indexes has been a deadcat bounce for miners whether they be mega cap Rio Tinto or poor old Molycorp

    Near term i agree with Lisa, that the S&P 500 index does look to print below 1250 but with every dollar drop in Molycorp due to index pressure I am looking to sell Sep 12 puts earning me a nice income and giving me until September to actually buy the stock which looks value anywhere below $25

    either i own the stock at $17 in Sep 12 or i've earned 15% on puts expiring worthless .... same reward as market rallying to $24 by Sep, but without the downside from 21 to 17
    Jun 9, 2012. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halliburton Hit By Higher Than Expected Guar Gum Prices. [View article]
    i bought me some Halliburton here at $27.57 ...... a 20% dicount to the 200 day SMA seems a reasonable place to initate a small medium term position ... this is the first of a few trades i plan to do over the next 2 months to get a diversified group of stocks which will benefit from higher oil and nat gas prices over the coming year then at current levels
    Jun 8, 2012. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's government concluded its takeover of YPF by naming a new chief executive and directors, although YPF's former owner - Spain's Repsol (REPYY.PK, REPYF.PK) - kept one seat on the board. Company shares will continue to trade at the Buenos Aires stock exchange and in New York.
     [View news story]
    so does that mean Repsol will get back what they paid for the assets, or is this a ploy? i am unaware of any compensation agreed?
    Jun 5, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: Great Growth Potential For This Undervalued Energy Stock [View article]
    Getting to that 26.50-27.50 zone ..... no doubt with this vicious momentum we will trade to the downside of the range but i would definitely have a look at oils now. Any thoughts on other names like Suncor? I'm looking at MPC?
    May 30, 2012. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan (JPM) injects 2.5B yuan ($394M) into its China unit in expectation of rapid growth over the coming years. Says a JPM exec: the "additional capital will better position the bank in [China's] evolving regulatory environment" and will be used, among other things, to expand the bank's branch network.  [View news story]
    I was wondering where they were going to relocate the prop team now that London seems a no go
    May 28, 2012. 09:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dollar And Euro: Breakout Vs. Breakdown [View article]
    The world has spent 20-30 years of getting fleeced by being long USD in return for payment of goods, just ask a Japanese exporter, or a south east asian sovereign. All these bouts of weakness in the euro are allowing all these overweight positions to be reduced, as the euro dips there is a cue of buyers gradually getting the biggest risk off their balance sheet the USD.

    With the $361bn that California owes, perhaps we should take California out of the USD? Or perhaps when you consider discussing an ugly contest, you should realise that you are choosing between the Ugly sisters, and Cinderella is nowhere to be seen
    May 28, 2012. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Undervalued High Growth Stocks [View article]
    These trades would all seem to be affected by geopolitics. Iran threat has dampened over past months, the removal of the geopolitical premium in commodites has been amplified in equities of Gold miners, Oil majors, Oil related plays and cant imagine its too good for defence spending. On top of that a weakening euro is strengthening the USD inadvertently despite a zero rate stance until 2013.

    When you compare it to Facebook, where is the relevance? If oil and gold drop 10% on peace in the middle east these trades will not performm and the likes of Amazon, no matter how high their P/Es are will fly to the moon. Now i like 3 of the 4 companies you have listed but not commenting on these performances with adjusted estimates for 10-20% lower commodity prices may give a better idea of what a risks you face when grabbing these dividends
    May 22, 2012. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations: The Capital Efficient Business Model, Part 2 [View article]
    Now then lets have a look at those Jan 13 $28 strike calls i suggested buying 4 days ago at $3 (see comments above) ......... bid at $6.50 ......... nice work if you can get it :-)
    May 21, 2012. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Watch The Bonds For Signs Of Life [View article]
    I recommend buying the Nokia Sep 2014 bonds at Par ...get yourself a 5.5% yield and wait and see if they can avoid being the next RIMM?

    Over the next 2-3 years Nokia will be solvent as patents earn them a regular income and they continue to generate income in the non-smartphone market. But they have now been trying and failing for close to 3 years to gain real success in the smartphone market.

    In 2 years time you will have a great option to reinvest your guaranteed money in the 2019s, i think the yield differential is worth foregoing, unless you are a real believer in the Lumia series, which I am most definitely not.
    May 21, 2012. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
53 Comments
30 Likes