Kinabalu's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/209751/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174737-the-single-most-important-thing-to-understand-about-the-fed?source=feed#comment-777180 777180 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:16:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173590-bair-s-chutzpah?source=feed#comment-762758 762758
Typical bureacratic response. It wasn't what I did, it was what they did.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:49:27 -0500
Typical bureacratic response. It wasn't what I did, it was what they did.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173166-the-goldman-sachs-foundation-s-torrid-2008?source=feed#comment-759794 759794 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:06:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170295-airlines-some-costs-they-can-t-and-shouldn-t-cut?source=feed#comment-741458 741458
I couldn't give the whole Company high management grades but the Treasurers department gets the highest marks.


On Nov 01 12:16 PM User 105447 wrote:

> Sorry, but there is no way a "cyber-enviroment" can duplicate all
> sensory inputs. Most importantly the will to stay alive. When aircraft
> become drones controled from a central location, I will stop flying
> or get my own plane.
> Pan Am was the prime example of bad management, now replaced by GM.
> GM still has one of the most isolated management structures in corporate
> America. Therefore GM is kaput, and still digging its own grave.
> ]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:28:17 -0500
I couldn't give the whole Company high management grades but the Treasurers department gets the highest marks.


On Nov 01 12:16 PM User 105447 wrote:

> Sorry, but there is no way a "cyber-enviroment" can duplicate all
> sensory inputs. Most importantly the will to stay alive. When aircraft
> become drones controled from a central location, I will stop flying
> or get my own plane.
> Pan Am was the prime example of bad management, now replaced by GM.
> GM still has one of the most isolated management structures in corporate
> America. Therefore GM is kaput, and still digging its own grave.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170510-cit-s-bankruptcy-and-the-trading-sardine?source=feed#comment-741286 741286
The story goes that sometime in the early years of the Twentieth Century there was a lull on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, a lull that extended from hours to days - and the boys were getting bored and restless. One afternoon, for want of any better entertainment, a trader pulled out an elderly sardine tin and announced his willingness to sell this unique item for no more than a nickel. In a moment two jobbers from the Railroads pitch had bid and counter-bid for the tin, pushing the price up to a dime. Not to be outdone, the cowboys who trade Texas oil stocks jump in, doubling the price of the sardines, then doubling it again. The tin passes from professional hand to professional hand, with the ticket sometimes a cent or two higher, sometimes up a quarter. At last the hubbub attracts the attention of the baby of the floor, a wet behind the ears college kid. He spots the unusual label and can't miss the excitement in the open outcry yelling of the traders. The kid, determined to show he can play with the big boys and genuinely intrigued by the apparent rarity of the item, firmly calls out 'Ten bucks' and is delighted when the bidding comes to an abrupt end. Hefting out his pocket-knife, he punctures the tin, only to be met with the unmistakeable stink of rotting fish. Bewildered and heavily out of pocket, the new boy turns to one of his elders, who had taken a half dollar turn out of the tin an hour previously. 'I don't get it' says the kid, 'these sardines are terrible.' 'Son', says the old jobber, 'those weren't eating sardines, those were trading sardines.']]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:37:45 -0500
The story goes that sometime in the early years of the Twentieth Century there was a lull on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, a lull that extended from hours to days - and the boys were getting bored and restless. One afternoon, for want of any better entertainment, a trader pulled out an elderly sardine tin and announced his willingness to sell this unique item for no more than a nickel. In a moment two jobbers from the Railroads pitch had bid and counter-bid for the tin, pushing the price up to a dime. Not to be outdone, the cowboys who trade Texas oil stocks jump in, doubling the price of the sardines, then doubling it again. The tin passes from professional hand to professional hand, with the ticket sometimes a cent or two higher, sometimes up a quarter. At last the hubbub attracts the attention of the baby of the floor, a wet behind the ears college kid. He spots the unusual label and can't miss the excitement in the open outcry yelling of the traders. The kid, determined to show he can play with the big boys and genuinely intrigued by the apparent rarity of the item, firmly calls out 'Ten bucks' and is delighted when the bidding comes to an abrupt end. Hefting out his pocket-knife, he punctures the tin, only to be met with the unmistakeable stink of rotting fish. Bewildered and heavily out of pocket, the new boy turns to one of his elders, who had taken a half dollar turn out of the tin an hour previously. 'I don't get it' says the kid, 'these sardines are terrible.' 'Son', says the old jobber, 'those weren't eating sardines, those were trading sardines.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167788-ultimately-who-benefits-from-too-big-to-fail?source=feed#comment-731186 731186
www.federalreserve.gov...

Conclusions? "findings indicate consistently that bank mergers do not generally result in gains in efficiency or general operating performance."]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:47:25 -0400
www.federalreserve.gov...

Conclusions? "findings indicate consistently that bank mergers do not generally result in gains in efficiency or general operating performance."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168054-galleon-s-defense-insightful-vs-insider-information?source=feed#comment-725399 725399 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 12:40:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167788-ultimately-who-benefits-from-too-big-to-fail?source=feed#comment-724061 724061
We have a winner!! Give the man a Kewpie Doll. The FDIC promoted bank mergers for 2 decades because they thought that larger banks had lower loss ratios. They never tried to claim that larger banks were more efficient because all of American industry was experiencing productivity improvement.

TooBigToFail has refuted the loss ratio concept but now someone is trying to ascribe broad productivity gains to merger activity? Except for monopolistic situations, mergers have traditionally been shown to have ineffective results across industries. Banking is no exception.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:59:59 -0400
We have a winner!! Give the man a Kewpie Doll. The FDIC promoted bank mergers for 2 decades because they thought that larger banks had lower loss ratios. They never tried to claim that larger banks were more efficient because all of American industry was experiencing productivity improvement.

TooBigToFail has refuted the loss ratio concept but now someone is trying to ascribe broad productivity gains to merger activity? Except for monopolistic situations, mergers have traditionally been shown to have ineffective results across industries. Banking is no exception.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167825-hedge-fund-due-diligence-reports-akin-to-the-sports-illustrated-cover-jinx?source=feed#comment-723970 723970
It's important to note that these percentages are not mutually exclusive. The 21% could be a completely different group than the quarter (25%). I personally find it very hard to believe that less than 50% of hedge fund promoters are not misrepresenting current or past performance or other important issues. It's interesting that the study also notes that over 40% had past regulatory infractions, many of which were not reported in the few required filings.

The incentives for hedge fund managers to cheat are so great and the regulatory oversight so small, as a result of the so-called "sophisticated investor" exemption, that anyone who pursues this form of investment is just asking for trouble.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:26:20 -0400
It's important to note that these percentages are not mutually exclusive. The 21% could be a completely different group than the quarter (25%). I personally find it very hard to believe that less than 50% of hedge fund promoters are not misrepresenting current or past performance or other important issues. It's interesting that the study also notes that over 40% had past regulatory infractions, many of which were not reported in the few required filings.

The incentives for hedge fund managers to cheat are so great and the regulatory oversight so small, as a result of the so-called "sophisticated investor" exemption, that anyone who pursues this form of investment is just asking for trouble.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167348-three-asset-classes-that-can-actually-outpace-coming-inflationary-price-increases?source=feed#comment-722192 722192
Pick the right periods and you can make some pretty misleading points. What about gold hitting $800 about 3 decades ago?

I can see good arguments for oil and agriculture but gold confounds me.]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 11:59:18 -0400
Pick the right periods and you can make some pretty misleading points. What about gold hitting $800 about 3 decades ago?

I can see good arguments for oil and agriculture but gold confounds me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167110-global-markets-in-review-risky-assets-disconnect-from-fundamentals?source=feed#comment-720117 720117 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 02:21:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167079-how-u-s-financial-sector-could-be-downsized?source=feed#comment-720116 720116
www.occ.treas.gov/deri...


On Oct 18 12:59 PM markfl wrote:

> Harrison wrote:
> "The FDIC will be directed to examine the books of the largest 25
> insured banks to uncover all CDS contracts held."
>
> Still $600 trillion in the derivatives market, and we don't know
> which banks may have a potential AIG-breaking $3 trillion in exposure.]]> Mon, 19 Oct 2009 02:13:09 -0400
www.occ.treas.gov/deri...


On Oct 18 12:59 PM markfl wrote:

> Harrison wrote:
> "The FDIC will be directed to examine the books of the largest 25
> insured banks to uncover all CDS contracts held."
>
> Still $600 trillion in the derivatives market, and we don't know
> which banks may have a potential AIG-breaking $3 trillion in exposure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167166-how-washington-s-policymakers-are-damaging-the-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-719853 719853
James Kwak had a great article here on Seeking Alpha, that repeats a Calvin Trillin opinion piece in the New York Times, on Friday, that puts some actual numbers to this concept. In fact he shows that, since 1990, it's just the opposite. The smart guys around then started going to Wall Street and developing products that their bosses, the dumb guys from an earlier generation, didn't really understand. See the link:

seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:37:27 -0400
James Kwak had a great article here on Seeking Alpha, that repeats a Calvin Trillin opinion piece in the New York Times, on Friday, that puts some actual numbers to this concept. In fact he shows that, since 1990, it's just the opposite. The smart guys around then started going to Wall Street and developing products that their bosses, the dumb guys from an earlier generation, didn't really understand. See the link:

seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166319-7-things-goldman-can-do-with-its-money-instead-of-fat-bonuses?source=feed#comment-716853 716853 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:50:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/34276?source=feed#comment-716818 716818 Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:00:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166432-debunking-the-too-big-to-fail-myth-once-and-for-all?source=feed#comment-715471 715471
One of the few real nuggets in the article. Unfortunately there is also some real dreck like:

"The Obama administration could break the "too bigs" up in a heartbeat if it wanted to, and then justify it after the fact using PCA or another legal argument."

The thought that the government could easily, or effectively, fix the TBTF problem is really delusional.]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:06:27 -0400
One of the few real nuggets in the article. Unfortunately there is also some real dreck like:

"The Obama administration could break the "too bigs" up in a heartbeat if it wanted to, and then justify it after the fact using PCA or another legal argument."

The thought that the government could easily, or effectively, fix the TBTF problem is really delusional.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166269-debt-monetization-he-s-heading-for-that-small-moon?source=feed#comment-714516 714516
The definitive description of what monetizing the debt really means was answered by the St Louis Fed in 1984. It doesn't significantly differ from what is presented above. Here's the study:

research.stlouisfed.or...

The study concludes that if the Federal Reserve achieves its desired money growth objective, it is not monetizing the debt, even if money growth is achieved solely through open market purchases of government debt. The policy objectives of the monetary authority play an important role in determining whether the Federal Reserve is monetizing debt.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 21:44:01 -0400
The definitive description of what monetizing the debt really means was answered by the St Louis Fed in 1984. It doesn't significantly differ from what is presented above. Here's the study:

research.stlouisfed.or...

The study concludes that if the Federal Reserve achieves its desired money growth objective, it is not monetizing the debt, even if money growth is achieved solely through open market purchases of government debt. The policy objectives of the monetary authority play an important role in determining whether the Federal Reserve is monetizing debt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165886-ackman-explains-why-he-s-short-reit-realty-income?source=feed#comment-714444 714444
On Oct 11 09:00 AM Brad Castro wrote:

> I agree with davidbdc.
>
> And then there's the monthly dividend. Why would you short stock
> that pays a monthly dividend? When you short the stock, YOU pay the
> dividend.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:52:32 -0400
On Oct 11 09:00 AM Brad Castro wrote:

> I agree with davidbdc.
>
> And then there's the monthly dividend. Why would you short stock
> that pays a monthly dividend? When you short the stock, YOU pay the
> dividend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165886-ackman-explains-why-he-s-short-reit-realty-income?source=feed#comment-714440 714440
I know it doesn't make sense but just reading that sentence makes me want to short them. Wow, a dividend increase of $0.0003125 per share. For a thousand shares the dividend will go up 31 cents.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:45:05 -0400
I know it doesn't make sense but just reading that sentence makes me want to short them. Wow, a dividend increase of $0.0003125 per share. For a thousand shares the dividend will go up 31 cents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166251-what-hedge-funds-are-buying-and-selling-now?source=feed#comment-714122 714122 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:08:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164264-one-basic-portfolio-5-etfs?source=feed#comment-700693 700693
I would endorse your comments about ETFs but when they are extended to hedge funds I have to object. The fact of the matter is that hedge fund marketers are far more adept at their jobs than hedge fund managers.


On Oct 02 12:06 PM Scott's Investments wrote:

> Kinabalu - I think you may be confusing holding individual stocks
> vs. tracking some type of hedge fund index. Alphaclone uses the reported
> stock holdings of hedge funds to compose stock portfolios. Thus,
> you are not tracking an index but holding actual stocks using quarterly
> filings of various hedge funds. There are limitations with this system
> but the historical performances w/ lower volatility speak for themselves.
> Of course, with anything, past performance won't guarantee future
> success. I would, however, suggest checking out their site if you
> are interested in understanding the product and strategy more thoroughly.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:19:22 -0400
I would endorse your comments about ETFs but when they are extended to hedge funds I have to object. The fact of the matter is that hedge fund marketers are far more adept at their jobs than hedge fund managers.


On Oct 02 12:06 PM Scott's Investments wrote:

> Kinabalu - I think you may be confusing holding individual stocks
> vs. tracking some type of hedge fund index. Alphaclone uses the reported
> stock holdings of hedge funds to compose stock portfolios. Thus,
> you are not tracking an index but holding actual stocks using quarterly
> filings of various hedge funds. There are limitations with this system
> but the historical performances w/ lower volatility speak for themselves.
> Of course, with anything, past performance won't guarantee future
> success. I would, however, suggest checking out their site if you
> are interested in understanding the product and strategy more thoroughly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164264-one-basic-portfolio-5-etfs?source=feed#comment-700125 700125
When it comes to hedge funds the last thing you want to do is accept return figures. Most mutual funds have adopted the GIPS (Global Investment Performance Standards) standards for investment performance calculations. Hedge funds, with their limited required disclosures, still calculate performance in their own subjective, and often misleading, ways. There are no true performance calculations for the hedge fund universe and calculations for individual funds are questionable, as evidenced by the many after the fact lawsuits by investors against principals.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:49:34 -0400
When it comes to hedge funds the last thing you want to do is accept return figures. Most mutual funds have adopted the GIPS (Global Investment Performance Standards) standards for investment performance calculations. Hedge funds, with their limited required disclosures, still calculate performance in their own subjective, and often misleading, ways. There are no true performance calculations for the hedge fund universe and calculations for individual funds are questionable, as evidenced by the many after the fact lawsuits by investors against principals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163836-retail-firms-at-risk-for-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-696060 696060
A specific example in the list provided is Redwood Trust. RWT is an unusual mortgage REIT that uses equity capital to make unleveraged investments. The company balance sheet appears highly leveraged but most of the Debt is non recourse securitizations. Audit Integrity’s mechanistic approach can not distinguish between recourse and non recourse debt and assumes incorrectly that RWT is highly leveraged.

These types of screens have value, but only as a starting point for further investigation.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 18:57:04 -0400
A specific example in the list provided is Redwood Trust. RWT is an unusual mortgage REIT that uses equity capital to make unleveraged investments. The company balance sheet appears highly leveraged but most of the Debt is non recourse securitizations. Audit Integrity’s mechanistic approach can not distinguish between recourse and non recourse debt and assumes incorrectly that RWT is highly leveraged.

These types of screens have value, but only as a starting point for further investigation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163767-should-you-invest-in-banking-stocks?source=feed#comment-695873 695873 Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:57:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163610-which-dividend-stocks-are-relatively-safe?source=feed#comment-695863 695863
As long as the first sentence in the article remains true, Your best dividend plays are the Agency Mortgage REITs such as AGNC, CMO, HTS, and NLY. All they need is low short term interest rates and an upward sloping yield curve.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:51:31 -0400
As long as the first sentence in the article remains true, Your best dividend plays are the Agency Mortgage REITs such as AGNC, CMO, HTS, and NLY. All they need is low short term interest rates and an upward sloping yield curve.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163851-are-banks-being-naughty-again-with-derivatives-could-be-good?source=feed#comment-695841 695841
The OCC, in its second quarter, 2009 report on bank derivative activities, reported that net current credit exposure, the primary metric the OCC uses to measure credit risk in derivatives activities, DECREASED $140 billion, or 20 percent, to $555 billion.

While the fact that a significant decrease occurred is important it should also be noted that the OCCs metric reflects counterparty netting where the bank has a legally enforceable bilateral netting
agreement, a common provision in the ISDA master agreement that most derivative contracts are based on. In that event contracts with negative values may be used to offset contracts with positive values with the same counterparty. This assumption is explicitly counter to the recent landmark ruling in the Lehman bankruptcy which throws out that provision.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:28:38 -0400
The OCC, in its second quarter, 2009 report on bank derivative activities, reported that net current credit exposure, the primary metric the OCC uses to measure credit risk in derivatives activities, DECREASED $140 billion, or 20 percent, to $555 billion.

While the fact that a significant decrease occurred is important it should also be noted that the OCCs metric reflects counterparty netting where the bank has a legally enforceable bilateral netting
agreement, a common provision in the ISDA master agreement that most derivative contracts are based on. In that event contracts with negative values may be used to offset contracts with positive values with the same counterparty. This assumption is explicitly counter to the recent landmark ruling in the Lehman bankruptcy which throws out that provision.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163874-the-future-of-banking?source=feed#comment-695707 695707
You mean the oath that contains the line
"guarding against decisions and behavior that advance my own narrow ambitions but harm the enterprise and the societies it serves" and was not signed by 50% of the 2009 graduates.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:26:41 -0400
You mean the oath that contains the line
"guarding against decisions and behavior that advance my own narrow ambitions but harm the enterprise and the societies it serves" and was not signed by 50% of the 2009 graduates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163644-prepaying-mortgages?source=feed#comment-694765 694765 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 20:37:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163669-bank-of-america-s-gain-taxpayers-loss-part-2?source=feed#comment-694681 694681
Thanks for the update. I don't agree with the gov't negotiator but I can understand the reasoning. This will all make more sense when the negotiator accepts a plum job with BAC next year.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 20:18:50 -0400
Thanks for the update. I don't agree with the gov't negotiator but I can understand the reasoning. This will all make more sense when the negotiator accepts a plum job with BAC next year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163611-should-you-avoid-investing-in-danish-irish-and-spanish-banks?source=feed#comment-694659 694659

On Sep 28 04:15 AM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> Banco Santander (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) could easily
> be one of the top five banks in the world, in my opinion.
>
> It's a great dividend payer and prides itself in being able to pay
> it. The company has judiciously moved into Latin America, has a great
> balance sheet, and is in fact one of the few banks in the world with
> zero LTD.
>
> Long STD and plan to stay there.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 19:54:47 -0400

On Sep 28 04:15 AM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> Banco Santander (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) could easily
> be one of the top five banks in the world, in my opinion.
>
> It's a great dividend payer and prides itself in being able to pay
> it. The company has judiciously moved into Latin America, has a great
> balance sheet, and is in fact one of the few banks in the world with
> zero LTD.
>
> Long STD and plan to stay there.]]>