Seeking Alpha

Kinabalu

Kinabalu
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Kinabalu's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The EU Bailout: Too Much, Too Late [View article]
    " I fear that its enormity will only exacerbate tensions between the euro zone countries over the long term."

    It should and it will. Too bad we can't somehow create similar tension in Washington DC and Sacramento.
    May 10 02:30 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Geithner's Executive Compensation Restrictions Are Effective Policy [View article]
    "Geithner, conversely, wanted to make sure the government funding came with restrictions"

    Blatant attempt to rewrite history. He may want that now but he had no concept of restrictions when he gave AIGs CDS counterparties $ billions of collateral with no haircut or restrictions at all. He has explicitly stated that the only goal was to keep the system from crashing. That decision paved the way for Goldman Sachs and others to pay monstrous bonuses. This was one of the worst decisions ever and Geithner made it.
    Dec 8 08:46 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are GLD and SLV Legitimate Investment Vehicles? [View article]
    "Does anyone else besides me not find it ludicrous that both the SEC and the CFTC have not examined either the GLD or SLV prospectus to determine if it is truthful or complete, and that in fact, any claims that the prospectus is truthful and complete is a “criminal offense”? "

    The author not only doesn't understand that the same SEC language is included in almost every prospectus but he misinterprets the language. A statement that a prospectus is truthful and complete would simply comply with the issuers obligation under SEC law and it is not a criminal offense. The criminal offense would be representing that the SEC has determined that the prospectus is truthful and complete.

    On Jul 16 10:30 AM Darbyred wrote:

    > . . . “Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC] nor any
    > state securities commission has approved or disapproved of the securities
    > offered in this prospectus, or determined if this prospectus is truthful
    > or complete. Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense”
    > (emphasis mine); and . . . . "
    >
    > The author needs to read several more prospectuses--he will find
    > that the cautionary language he quotes is generally found in some
    > form in every prospectus.
    Jul 16 12:58 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Business Is Wall Street In? [View article]
    "Wall Street has nothing to do with creating capital for businesses, its original goal."

    Sorry Mark, but that was never Wall Streets original goal. You are making the same mistake that many others have made. Wall Streets goal has always been to bring together capital and opportunity and make a spread off the transaction, not create capital. Your broker/banker is not on your side of the table. It's a 3 sided table and you have to negotiate against both of the other sides to get your best deal.
    May 10 03:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Draws a Blank on How Banks Really Work [View article]
    Tom, you really don't have to exagerate to make your point. A lot of what you say is right on. Two items are way off. Of the 4 main sources of banking regulation, the FED, FDIC, OCC and state banking departments, only 1 works for the executive branch, the OCC. Of course Obama has influence over the others but so do other interests, like Congress. Your point that the regulators aren't toeing the same 'lend or else' line is accurate, and does emphasize Obamas lack of understanding of bank lending motivations. It just isn't quite as easy for Obama to implement change as you suggest.

    In addition, your comment "But except for Citi (C), none of the big banks even wanted the money" is rewriting history. At the original meeting announcing capital infusions to the banking industry, only one bank spoke out against the idea, Wells Fargo. They subsequently reversed field and embraced the capital. All the banks wanted the money, what they never wanted was the restrictions they knew would come with the money. The money that came with no restrictions (AIG funding that went to post collateral for under water CDS positions) was most highly prized.

    I suspect it's Obamas frustration with the poor design of the capital infusions (i.e. Goldmans intent to pay massive bonuses) that's generating a lot of the angry talk, more so than total misunderstanding of the business of banking. But it's only suspicion, as I recall that, a year ago, he didn't even know what a PE ratio was.
    Dec 16 07:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Risky Bet [View article]
    "we also believe that there is a significant risk of disappointment and devaluation of the stock"

    The analysis in the article is good, although the author not knowing that LINEs Antrim shale properties are in Northern Michigan, not Ohio, is disconcerting. The real problem is that the analysis is much more positive than the conclusion and it certainly doesn't support the article's title. The very successful hedging program eliminates a lot of the risk, specifically the risk of a sharp decline in commodity prices, for an extended period of time, while the distribution is protected. If that doesn't take a lot of the risk out this stock, what would? In addition the company's recent successful well in the Granite Wash is a game changer when combined with the drilling rights LINE has in that area. The article notes the potential, but then completely discounts it with a faulty conclusion.
    Aug 18 11:56 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply: The Myth of Hyperinflation [View article]
    This was a very good description of what has actually happened via monetary policy in the last year. However the author is far too generous in his praise for the FED. They have not succeeded in raising the velocity of money and that failure will make it much harder to avoid inflationary stimulus in the coming months. Their real battles are ahead of them.

    The pundits that have been screaming that the FED is monetizing the debt (Zero Hedge) need to realize that you can't monetize the debt with the money supply going down. the St Louis Fed has published the definitive description of what "monetizing the debt" really means. You can read it here:

    research.stlouisfed.or...
    Sep 3 02:05 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Is So Beaten Down, the CEO Choice Hardly Matters [View article]
    "He spearheaded five years of tough cost cuts at H-P that didn’t happen under his predecessors."

    A very big piece of that cost cutting was in R&D. Hurd did very little strategic innovation at HPQ. He was really more of a COO than a CEO. Fortunately for HPQ shareholders that was the right direction at the time. But that's also why they have to make acquisitions now, and Palmisano isn't the only one who thinks they overpaid.

    The lack of strategic positioning during Hurd's term created the need for a new CEO, regardless of the sex scandal issues. But there's always a big risk with a new CEO and that's an appropriate reason to discount the stock now.
    Sep 26 06:57 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Shorts Are Wrong About Linn Energy [View article]
    "What I want to do in this piece is a Big Picture analysis of where I think Hedgeye Risk Management and other naysayers of Linn Energy and the E&P MLP sector are in error."

    And you did it well! The point is that a stock price decline from 36 to 25 is not supported by Hedgeye's disputed accounting theory even if totally correct.

    Further to the SEC inquiry, I don't expect we will see anything from the SEC on this, ever. The SEC has to review this issue because there's a proxy statement filed on the BRY acquisition. This is totally normal SEC action when a Proxy statement is involved. I'm surprised I haven't seen more commenters point this out. The most likely result of it's inquiry will be a request to LINE to make some additional disclosure in the final proxy. The only public announcement will be if LINE points it out.
    Jul 15 05:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Linn Energy And Pick Up Pioneer Southwest At A Cheaper Valuation, Bigger Yield [View article]
    AA
    Another big difference between VNR, PSE and LINE is that LINE is doing much more drilling and has more potential for organic growth (ignored in this article).
    Mar 12 02:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Portfolio: Selling A Stock When Serious Questions Arise [View article]
    Brochstein:
    "I hope that this clarifies what I am trying to say here"

    You have commented at least 13 times on this article. In many of those comments you indicate that you don't know the company and you don't understand the isues. You then go on to pontificate a negative opinion. You have even linked LINE with Madoff and Ponzi schemes in your comments. You and Bryce-in-TX make a great tag team in ignorance and futility. I really don't understand why you would want to comment so extensively on issues where you can't add substance to the conversation.

    What you have clarified for me is not to waste time reading your posts. Please find another Company to articulate your lack of knowledge about.
    Feb 17 04:55 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve: Exit Watch [View article]
    "Therefore, the concern about “exit” strategy is going to be connected with the removal of bank reserves from the banking system when the commercial banks begin lending again."

    That's when the issue of monetizing the debt and all its inflationary consequences becomes real. How do you keep the recovery going and extract bank reserves at the same time? Good luck, Ben.
    Aug 21 09:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20 [View article]
    "Obama understands that the markets will determine his success."

    If he was really concerned about the market he would stop throwing those "worst economic crisis ever" hand grenades. Right now we are having an Obama rally in the wrong direction.
    Feb 20 06:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Takes Next Step To Survive And Thrive [View article]
    Marc/rlp
    This is standard procedure. The SEC has completed its inquiry. It has given comments to LINN with respect to its disclosure. LINN will accomodate those comments in the final proxy. These are disclosure issues, nothing more. The SEC usually gives these comments in very general terms. The attorneys writing the proxy language will be arguing for a couple of days about what the comments mean. They can't turn a new filing around overnight.

    The real issue here is whether the LNCO price is at, or recovers to, a level accceptable to BRY shareholders.
    Sep 11 09:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Use Of Corporate Profit (Cash) [View article]
    "determining whether a company should buy back their shares or not is no different than me deciding whether I should invest in their shares."

    This is a very simplistic, and very wrong, view of how to judge buyback transactions. Simply put when YOU decide to invest, you're putting your money at risk to get a return on your money. When the Company MANAGEMENT decides on a buyback they're often putting your money at risk to get a return for themselves.

    This is most easily seen when a company that is pursuing a buyback has a stock option program as a large component of executive compensation. Buybacks increase the value of the options with no significant management contribution, whether or not the buyback is beneficial to other shareholders.

    This is a significant moral risk, that the agent manager is acting in his own behalf rather than on behalf of the shareholders. This is the reason buybacks are last in the pecking order.
    Dec 11 04:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
772 Comments
689 Likes