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  • Airlines: Some Costs They Can't - And Shouldn't - Cut [View article]
    When you say Pan Am had bad management I have to comment. They had some real world regulatory problems and made some terrible mistakes. However, the Pan Am Finance department kept that Company running for years after they should have been dead. I watched Pan Am from a competitor and was amazed how they could continue to raise money for years with such terrible financial results.

    I couldn't give the whole Company high management grades but the Treasurers department gets the highest marks.


    On Nov 01 12:16 PM User 105447 wrote:

    > Sorry, but there is no way a "cyber-enviroment" can duplicate all
    > sensory inputs. Most importantly the will to stay alive. When aircraft
    > become drones controled from a central location, I will stop flying
    > or get my own plane.
    > Pan Am was the prime example of bad management, now replaced by GM.
    > GM still has one of the most isolated management structures in corporate
    > America. Therefore GM is kaput, and still digging its own grave.
    >
    Nov 02 19:28 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment
  • Retail Firms at Risk for Bankruptcy [View article]
    It is amazing that this list isonce again propagated with no details about how it is compiled. Audit Integrity has no analysts that actually look at companies, only quants that prepare and review statistical data. To repeat: Audit Integrity does only quantitative analysis using proprietary ratios and algorithms. This technique provides a lot of comparative detail which can be correlated across industries to historical events like bankruptcy. However, it fails utterly when the company has unusual features that do not fit the templates Audit Integrity uses.

    A specific example in the list provided is Redwood Trust. RWT is an unusual mortgage REIT that uses equity capital to make unleveraged investments. The company balance sheet appears highly leveraged but most of the Debt is non recourse securitizations. Audit Integrity’s mechanistic approach can not distinguish between recourse and non recourse debt and assumes incorrectly that RWT is highly leveraged.

    These types of screens have value, but only as a starting point for further investigation.
    Sep 29 18:57 pm |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment
  • 20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year [View article]
    It's amazing that this list is propagated with no details about how it is compiled. Audit Integrity does only quantitative analysis using proprietary ratios and algorithms. This technique provides a lot of comparative detail which can be correlated across industries to historical events like bankruptcy. However, it fails utterly when the company has unusual features that don't fit the templates Audit Integrity uses.

    A specific example in the list provided is Redwood Trust. RWT is an unusual mortgage REIT that uses equity capital to make unleveraged investments. The company's balance sheet appears highly leveraged but most of the Debt is non-recourse securitizations. Audit Integrity’s mechanistic approach can't distinguish between recourse and non-recourse debt and assumes incorrectly that RWT is highly leveraged.

    These types of screens have value, but only as a starting point for further investigation.
    Sep 18 12:38 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
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