drewriders's Comments

Final 2010 Strategist Predictions

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 19:30:31 -0500

Always fun to look back and see who was close

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Obubblomics: Prepare for Markets to Get Worse

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 08:13:34 -0500

I think the author is right but the bubble won't blow for another 3-7 years.

Former Fed Governor Mishkin Slams 'Paul Bill': Are We in Wonderland?

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:14:44 -0500

You people are crazy

On Dec 03 02:31 PM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> So you want to choose between a bunch of criminal politicians who
> have violated the constitution and a bunch of criminal banksters
> who have violated the constitution?
>
> Put them all out of a job and let god sort out their souls.

Richard Russell: Downturn Will Be 'Vicious'

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 09:11:02 -0500

Jobs, jobs, jobs. If job losses don't start piling up there will not be a 'vicious' downturn in the market. Look at the long term correlation between job losses and the market and you will find the truth. Stop listening to the perma bears.

View to 2010: Downside Risks at Least as Great as Upside Potential

Mon, 07 Dec 2009 10:05:12 -0500

I hate 'major trend lines'. The assumption is the market will continue to go down which I don't think is the cause. I expect a pull back until next summer when rates start to rise but sometime at the end of 2010 the trend line will be broken to start a new bull market.

Former Fed Governor Mishkin Slams 'Paul Bill': Are We in Wonderland?

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:18:00 -0500

I have more faith in the Fed than I do a bunch of politicians.

Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 08:59:56 -0500

GREAT ARTICLE!!!

More Losses on the Way: Don't Drink the Kool-Aid

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:37:50 -0500

The major problem is neither party is prepared to do what really needs to be done which is to drastically cut spending for Medicare\Medicaid and the U.S. military. It is more important for the Dems to appear strong (military spending) and the GOP to appear to care about the welfare of the electorate (Bush's prescription drug program) in order to stay in office.

We will eventually default on most, if not all, of our debts. I just hope it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

On Nov 24 12:13 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> That the US debt is unsustainable is beyond question. According to
> the Treasury Department, Washington was compelled to pay $383 billion
> over the course of the last fiscal year just in interest on the public
> debt. Given that total revenues from individual federal income taxes
> amount to $904 billion, 40 cents out of every dollar paid by US taxpayers
> is going to service the debt.
>
> Meanwhile, the tensions with China are indicative of global concerns
> over record US deficits and Federal Reserve lending rates of near
> zero that are driving central banks internationally to shift their
> holdings from the US dollar to other currencies such as the euro
> and the yen, as well as to gold.
>
> The rise in US debt and the fall of the dollar are both symptomatic
> of the protracted decline of American capitalism and its shift from
> being the world’s manufacturing leader to the center of global financial
> parasitism and speculation.
>
> The Obama administration’s focus on fiscal austerity is not designed
> to avoid a “double-dip recession”; in terms of the real economy,
> slashing government funding will make one all the more likely.

>
> Rather, it is aimed at placing the full burden of the economic crisis
> on the backs of working people.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:12:12 -0500

Runaway!!!

Husebye: A Contrarian's View of the Markets

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:51:16 -0500

Ridiculous. The S&P is not dropping to 500. It will keep going up until jobs start to turn positive. Once everyone realizes we are not in a V shaped recovery we probably trade sideways for years.

Mixed Signals: What's Ahead

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 10:01:23 -0500

I got out this morning. Looks like everyone is covering before options expiration. Expect a drop before the payroll report the first week of Dec. It has been doing that for about 3 months or so lately.

Getting Technical: The Humpy Pattern Thesis Lives On

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:53:16 -0500

I am expecting the market to trade similar to 2004 next year. Sideways mostly. Doubt we will hit S&P 1300 next year.

Robert Prechter to Investors: Play It Safe, Rally Is Over

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 07:17:16 -0500

Does anyone really listen to this guy? Has he even been a bull? I would bet him money the market doesn't go below 7000 next year.

Unemployment, Retail Numbers Don't Add Up

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:44:45 -0500

Maybe the fact that the gov't keeps extending unemployment benefits?

Employment Lags the Stock Market

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 07:46:35 -0500

Great article!! I wish I had know about this about 2 years ago. Would have saved me alot of financial pain. Seems it takes about 5 or 10 years for unemployment numbers to come back to a 'full employment' level before the next bear market begins.

At the Bull-Bear Crossroads

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:48:43 -0500

No way you short this market yet. Especially, with jobs becoming 'less worse'. If we hit over 1100 in the S&P feel free but realize you will need to cover in a few weeks.

On Nov 06 02:53 PM Nathaniel C wrote:

> I was one of the idiots who was short during that famous head and
> shoulders pattern that reversed straight up for about 3 weeks. Got
> killed. I tried again this week after last week's major breakdown.
> Got stopped out at a loss. Does not seem to make much sense shorting
> this market. Everytime you think the market is rolling over, SOMEBODY
> starts furiously buying futures and sends the market surging. The
> bears get scared and cover and the bulls feel great. After all nobody
> feels sorry for a short because we are anti-American destroyers of
> wealth who "cause" stocks to go down.

Continuing Job Losses Prove that Recovery Has Yet to Gain Traction

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:58:12 -0500

I would be willing to bet Warren Buffett knows more about the market than you do. DJIA will not go to 5000 unless we see a million jobs lost in a month. Ain't gonna happen.

On Nov 06 12:53 PM 10000ozCOCAINE wrote:

> Why Warren Buffett pays $34 billion for BNI instead max. $20 billion
> when market DJIA was at 6500?
> Why BRK depends on Goldman Sachs bankers?
> Why Buffett is buying stuff at the peak of the market instead of
> waiting to buy cheaper in a very short time ?
> Does he think DJIA at 10000 is "cheap" ?
> He buys BNI at the top to calm the matket panic and "make you buy
> too".
> Why BRK is not selling all their stuff, when W. Buffett knows very
> clear that DJIA will be 5000 soon and will bottom only at 2000 that
> will hit him too?
> Find out in WARREN BUFFET? link
> alturl.com/dzgp

S&P500 Trend Line Support Broken: What's Next?

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:10:37 -0500

Ridiculous. It has already corrected. You can put the trend line anywhere you want. Watch the jobs report. If the next few months gets better from prior months the market goes up. Very simple.

Bear Market Rallies and Lessons of History

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 10:10:00 -0500

People need to stop looking at these stupid charts looking for some sort of pattern. The reason that markets go down is simple. JOBS.

The market bottom of 6600 will not be seen for years (if at all). The reason it bottomed because job loses started to drop as of the Feb 09 job report. As long as job losses become less negative then start growing the market will go up. If job loses start to get deeper in the next 12 months (doubtful) I can see us dropping back to 7500-8000 on the Dow but not farther. This is not 1929 and we are NOT Japan.

Get over it.

Market: Spooked Today, But Panic Attack Is Likely Temporary

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:52:56 -0400

Look at the history of the market. Unless leading economic indicators start going negative or the monthly job situation suddenly starts to get worse we are moving higher from here long term. 'panic selling', if it occurs at all, is if we have positive job growth in the next six months and it starts to turn largely negative again. THEN you have to worry about retesting the March lows, but it will only be temporarily.

A Cautious Look at Where Markets Are Headed

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 11:19:04 -0400

Jim Cramer said yesterday that we have seen the highs in the market for the rest of the year. Sounds like it is time to buy!!!

After 2008, Are We Due for an Up Year?

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 15:37:16 -0400

I agree. I say we go higher and hit Dow 10,500 by the end of the year.
After that it is anyone's guess.

Global Update: Shorts Rising Incrementally Around the Globe

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 18:45:36 -0400

GDP should be positive next quarter. No need for the market to drop.

Social Security: Here's How to Extend the Fund's Life

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:13:15 -0400

You telling me Rick Wagoner of GM worked longer and harder than any of his lower level manager? I don't believe it.

On Sep 14 10:54 AM Dan in mpls wrote:

> Perfect. I pay into my retirement and get nothing out of it. They
> might just as well extend that to 401K plans as well and conficate
> that as well. There is zero difference. Now I'd like to hear the
> quick fix for medicare and medicaid to see how much that will cost
> the hardest workin bunch of Americans. We, the "wealthy" ,are not
> all movie stars, CEO's of major corporations and the like. We work
> huge hours and harder than any of our employees and, by God, we've
> done well in this once Capitalistic country where hard work was rewarded.
> The moral hazard of socialism will kill this goose soon enough so
> I should lay off my rants. But I won't.

Market Upside Exists, Resistance Persists

Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:25:25 -0400

Cool Chart

The Great Depression, Unemployment and Recovery

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 18:25:21 -0400

How can the chart say that World War II not gov't spending prompted the economic recovery when the U.S. borrowed massive amount of money to employ people to build planes, tanks, etc. Where do you think we got the money to employ all these people to support the war effort (combat and non-combat)?

Purchasing Power Comparisons

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:13:34 -0400

Of course Mississippi is high. They get almost twice as much in federal tax revenue then what they pay in taxes. Give thanks to Trent Lott folks.

www.taxfoundation.org/...

America: A Bona Fide Plutonomy

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:06:22 -0400

So I guess, in your view, a free economy with no taxes would be a utopian society?

Are you naive enough to believe concentration of wealth would diminish if this happened?

Low taxes are not a panacea for everything. Like in sports there have to be rules to the game which are fair to EVERYONE not just favor those with the most resources.

On Sep 08 09:36 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> Mr. Mark is at it again. Plutonomy, plutocracy, whatever. We all
> know when we get these "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer"
> articles that we are going to get a cheap shot at the "rich" and
> a call to "spread the wealth around." Thankfully Trader Mark saved
> us from yet another Robin Hood article.
>
> 1) These quintiles are not fixed. People move in and out of them
> quite freely. I personally went from "rich" (top quintile) to "poor,"
> under the poverty line) in one year. I future years I plan to move
> from the bottom to the top in one year. The misleading part of these
> types of discussions is to imply that there is one group, perhaps
> forming a "plutocracy," plotting via e-mail to run the economy for
> their own benefit at the expense of everyone else.
>
> 2) The coming crisis is not that "the rich get richer and the poor
> get poorer" but that increasingly, a smaller percentage of the population
> pays all the bills while a rising percentage pays no taxes at all
> and/or receive government subsidies. This means that there is emerging
> a permanent majority of voters who will cement in our Eurostasis.
>
>
> 3) If we have a plutocracy, it's not the Citigroup plotters. Whatever
> you may say about their wealth, bonuses, jets, whatever, they suffered
> a big hit in the last go-around, millions of dollars of wealth went
> up in smoke causing real losses even if the little guy will shed
> no tears, nor should he. The little guy lost no wealth because he
> didn't have any. The real plutocracy is the tight and cozy group
> that run the country, politicians, primarily Democratic ones. They
> shift in and out from "public service" where they have the benefits
> of great power, to "private service" where they make millions of
> dollars at the likes of Fannie Mae, Goldman Sachs and other connected
> organizations, their chief function being to wait for the next crack
> at power and to provide political cover for their private organizations.
>
>
> 4) If this alleged problem highlighted by Mr. Mark is amenable to
> a government fix, why hasn't this happened yet? After all, there
> are plenty of pitchfork-wielding citizens willing to toss the ropes
> around Gulliver and pin him to the ground. After a century of such
> action, why no improvement?
>
> 5) It's because efforts to hem in "the rich" generally result in
> a cementing-in of the status quo. Those already rich and firmly
> a part of the plutocracy, one thinks of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry or
> Jay Rockefeller, have their pile. In order to get a pile, you need
> a high income. The plutocracy places high taxes on the up-an-comers,
> those who would become the rich for the next ten or twenty years,
> and squashed both their movement and the economic benefits that such
> risk-takes would bring to the economy, while creating political structures
> allowing themselves to rule forever.
>
> Bottom line: A free economy with low taxation on everyone is the
> best way to shake up any plutocracy, not the Eurostagnation we are
> about to put permanently in place here in America.
>

Why U.S. Government Should Cut Federal Workers' Lavish Compensation

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:30:00 -0400

Cut their salary and they will start taking more bribes....

On Sep 08 10:00 AM Miamah Boy wrote:

> Cut the Senators and Congressmen's pay and they will take care of
> the rest!!!

Cyclical Bull Market in Full Effect

Sat, 05 Sep 2009 08:35:07 -0400

Some economic headwinds???

Failing banks, tapped out consumers, growing federal deficits and companies not hiring. I would say this is more than some.
Growth is being fueled by the Fed and gov't spending. What happens when the funds run out or we can't sell Treasuries and more. The fed can't keep buying their own securities and toxic mortgages forever.

On Sep 04 08:47 PM derryl wrote:

> I agree with Majendie's hedge, "He said investors can no longer depend
> on the rising tide of markets to lift all stocks. Instead he said
> they should concentrate on quality companies with good balance sheets
> and the ability to maintain/grow dividends.", and I would apply it
> across the border too.
>
> I think the US still has severe economic headwinds in store while
> Canada will be enjoying some moderate tailwinds. US multinationals
> listed on the S&P could enjoy gains from foreign operations to
> offset flat or declining revenues in their home market. The TSX
> is more commodity heavy and should enjoy gains for the same reasons,
> mainly emerging market demand. Canada's fiscal and overall financial
> situation is much healthier than the US so even Canada's domestic
> market should grow this year. If I was a conservative investor,
> which I am, I would place my bets more heavily on the TSX than the
> US markets.