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Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

This rally is completely fake, created by Big Boys buying. Still it presents profit opportunities for nimble and courageous traders.

But it cannot last, unless the market throws any kind of valuations and long term profit calculations out the window.

Measured by earnings as reported, P/E of S&P 500 is over 60 already...

online.barrons.com/pub...

My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless

Buyback = company is out of ideas, unable to significantly increase sales or improve operations = dead money for the future = time to sell into the buyback.

It's a Great Time to Be a Value Investor

Consider_this, you are absolutely correct. The debt bubbles popped stock prices to ridiculous valuations and they absolutely do NOT offer anything resembling good value.

3% div yield is only good compared to 1% savings interest. But in its own self 3% is pitiful, as it includes the equity risk; risk of losing the principal totally.

Much better opportunities in small business, where returns can be anything from 10% to 30% to even 300% per year. Stocks at current valuations look good only to salaried people who never knew another way to make money, or people so rich they've stopped caring.

Q109? Q2? When the Market Will Recover

Recovery? 2010-2012. Meanwhile, enjoy the bear market rallies. Anyone buying to hold gets to be the bagholder.

Bears Have Rallies Too

This may become the mother of all sucker rallies as Q12009 is still very far away. But then it's gonna be a sledgehammer blow after another, Q1, Q2, Q3...down down down.

Is It Time for Apple to Buy Back Some Shares?

If they bb or div it's a sell sign as they don't know what to do with the cash anymore, just like Berkshire would be a sell if Warren Buffett would start doling out money. Apple is an ideas company. No ideas, no company.

S&P 500 Earnings vs. Valuation Matrix

$60 is not bearish, it's even optimistic. Very likely we will dip below $50 in 2009. The current S&P500 level at 940 is just mental, for a mental recession.

Five Signs of a Market Bottom

Bottom? Let's see in 6 months how well it has held... Every rally brings more realized profits for shorters and a new generation of bagholders.

Ten Reasons Why Gold Isn't Above $1,000

The time to buy gold was at $300. The time to sell was above $1000. The rest of you are bagholders for the next 25 years.

An Opportunity for Patient Investors - Barron's

10x current earnings is good value. But when the future 3 quarters income drops 20% each quarter, the good 10x value becomes a very not-so-good 17.3x earnings. And nobody knows when the bleeding will stop. There's no recovery hope in sight for all of 2009 now. Visions of 2011-12 recovery are looking increasingly realistic. S&P500 may well hit 400 before then.

Fundamental Valuation: How Low Could We Go?

The current value, around 930-940, is fair value only if the economy does not contract. But it's contracting already. Nobody knows how deep we're going to dive next year but we do know that there will be a dive. How bad, how deep, nobody knows. But only a fool would value SnP500 on today's valuation knowing what's the course. We don't know how deep or how long, but we already do know it's going to get worse.

Buffett and the Limits to 'Awaiting Better Times'

When the market tanks another 50% from here, Buffett doesn't lose much. He just sells a few BRK.A to cover expenses and waits more. Can you afford to do the same? Good for you if you do.

Stocks are reasonably valued right now considering expected earnings. However those earnings most probably will not stick with us till Q1-Q2 2009, at which time your past purchase now will seem much overvalued.

Buffett doesn't care, he's willed his moneys away at his death, doesn't stand to lose anything.

Buffett and the Limits to 'Awaiting Better Times'

Let's buy the market up now that Buffett's portfolio is loaded. We must make old Warren happy don't we.

Countdown of Manipulated Gold Price Running Out

So take delivery on your COMEX paper if you're so convinced it's manipulated. Hope you'll be happy with your inert metal then. The real surprise comes later when you try to get rid of it.

Are Safe Haven Investments Really Immune From Current Crisis?

I believe we're going to deflate for a significant amount of time. Can be anything from 9 months to 5 years (some authors forecast even 10 years).