Wefwef

Ongoing Observations on NYSE Volume

This rally is completely fake, created by Big Boys buying. Still it presents profit opportunities for nimble and courageous traders.

But it cannot last, unless the market throws any kind of valuations and long term profit calculations out the window.

Measured by earnings as reported, P/E of S&P 500 is over 60 already...

online.barrons.com/pub...

Bears Have Rallies Too

This may become the mother of all sucker rallies as Q12009 is still very far away. But then it's gonna be a sledgehammer blow after another, Q1, Q2, Q3...down down down.

Fear of Depression vs. Fear of Missing the Rally

Q3 results show nothing, everything is cooling down in one big freeze, Q4, Q1/09, Q2/09 are going to be deep frozen. We will plunge significantly below the dotcom burst bottoms. We're headed straight to hell.

The Big Spending Fade Rolls On

The real recession begun in January 2006 when dollar dropped off the cliff. It's remarkable how the equity markets were prepped up for another 22 months after that.

The real bottom is somewhere way below the 2002 bottoms, that time only dotcoms were affected, now the whole economy is hurting, from banks to consumers and everything between.

Are More Big Falls Ahead?

SPX fair value is around 1050 which is still ahead, I believe we will rally to MA50 territory 1150-1200, even a peek through is very possible as SPX yields double the fed rate (3% vs 1,5%). Anything higher than SPX 1300 and it's time to consider selling.

However the yield is great (even factoring in possible slowdown in the next 9 months) and I doubt we're going to ever drop much below last friday's lows, so those few lucky ones who had the cojones to buy then might consider holding for life.

5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling

Stocks will continue going down because I want to buy lower. It's not good enough that stocks are good value right now, they must be of fantastical value in order to make a killing in the next 25 years. Please sell everything MOO on monday morning (Market On Open).

Expect the Real Rally by Mid-2009

Indeed, even permabulls are questioning analysts' calls for 100+ earnings next year now that unemployment has begun going up. Unemployment + exploding mortgage payments + exploding maxed out credit = things are only starting to get nasty. The worst is not repeat NOT behind us.

First it was mortgages only, now it's everything plus the rest of the world combined...

The Long Case for U.S. Equities

We have not even reached consumer credit crisis yet, which is going to be set off by the mortgage crisis. The long case might be AFTER 3-5 years.

Don’t Worry About a Return to ‘70s Stagflation

Calculated the way it was calculated before 1983, US current inflation is 11.3-11.8%. Don't believe me, find it out yourself.

US bond yields are a joke.