soitanly

Just Another Bear Rally?

Professional traders say corrections are necessary for a healthy bull. The current bull run has not had a real correction yet, and looks like it may soon begin to roll over. It also looks like (in pattern shape and after-effect) the succession of failed rallies that have accompanied the DJI or S&P bear market (11/19/07, 2/25/08, 3/10/08, 7/15/08, 10/9/08, 11/20/08, 3/6/09) all the way down. The rally beginning 11/20/08 peaked in early January 09, and eerily resembles the current bull run in its topping pattern.

Depression-era bull runs were sharper and fell off much faster, at least 9 waves down. Also, Depression-era average volume decreased until the real bottom in mid-1932, while this bear has had increasing average volume throughout, showing the influence of increased participation by large funds. The fat lady hasn't even come on stage yet.