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Venerability

Venerability
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  • 3 Oil And Gas Stocks With Recent Acquisition Deals [View article]
    That's OK. The wealthy ex-pats are firmly in the camp of the opposition, and they certainly have a right to voice their feelings.

    The Venezuelan Supreme Court, however, has ruled against them, and the extraordinary results in the regional elections two weeks ago - plus, again, the crowds at the Pseudo-Inauguration - show that most of the country is still with the Chavistas.

    That's beside the point, anyway, insofar as Petrodelta is concerned.

    The point is that all the predictions of instability in Venezuela due to Chavez being absent seem to be proving so much very hot air.

    Meanwhile, the "safe" Middle East oil sector is once again proven anything BUT safe!

    Venezuelan oil valuations deserve a MAJOR upgrade at some point. Meanwhile, as I said above, the bargain Pertamina is getting on Petrodelta - and the bargain it would NOT be getting if it sticks with the Algerian acquisition - become more apparent by the minute.
    Jan 21, 2013. 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp: Your Must Have Gold Stock For 2013 [View article]
    Latest options data show Call buying 5 times higher than Put buying, and last monthly dividend payout now past.

    First time in quite awhile GG has made the Options mavens' websites.

    Bullish as all get-out!
    Jan 20, 2013. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Oil And Gas Stocks With Recent Acquisition Deals [View article]
    New stories this morning that Maduro "expects Chavez to be well enough to retun to Venezuela soon." I decided to post my comment above in the Miami Herald - read by many Latin American emigres - instead of NBC, which continues to have technical issues.

    Clearly, even Uber-Venezuela haters are rethinking their opinions re the Venezuelan energy sector after the Algerian debacle.

    Oh, of course, the entire Middle East and North Africa deserves much higher valuations for its reserves than Venezuela does - NOT!

    This is all very, very good for Harvest valuation - at least if one is inclined to use one's brain. (Some are not, but we don't care about them!)
    Jan 20, 2013. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Finishing Week On Firm Note [View article]
    Marc,

    I always respect your opinions, but look at this top headline at Bloomie's now:

    http://bloom.bg/10drob9

    Re Japanese production in US: Maybe not 50 years, but certainly decades. California and Tennessee plants started a long, long time ago, I believe.

    PPTs or Plunge Protection Teams certainly DO exist, and most believe there are now several of them in every market, there to do their government's bidding in times of market stress. One believes they act more quickly now, since the Great Crash, plus drawing on the lessons learned fighting Flash Crashes spurred by HFTs. Although originally formed to intervene quietly in stock markets, they are now believed to exist in currency markets as well.

    Re "amateurs versus professionals" - Just my gut feeling - and that of many, many others. As an expert in currency markets, I'm sure you know that a very large percentage of currency traders at any time are reckless punters, as those in the UK say. The "Euro Short Bet of the Century" was made into a strategic move by top hedge funds. Remember that "secret meeting" at a New York Club?

    This "Yen Short of the Century" is very different - a "theme" being touted on daytrading sites and the like. That doesn't mean some highly competent professionals will not play the Momo. But one would think a lot of other highly competent professionals would try to take advantage of the amateur participation by playing the other side.
    Jan 20, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Oil And Gas Stocks With Recent Acquisition Deals [View article]
    I tried to post the following - 100 percent true - comment at the NBC news site and had technical difficulties. I complained, so I'll be able to post it tonight.

    But since I know many HNR enthusiasts read my posts, I will also post it here. It is in response to the literally disgusting trash talk propaganda about Senor Chavez's family not releasing photos or tapes:


    Comments saying Senor Chavez may be deceased are pure propaganda of a rather disgusting sort and should not be condoned. How would we like it if similar comments were made about an American, Canadian, or European leader suffering a similar medical crisis?

    Calls for photos or tapes of Senor Chavez now are insensitive and stem from pure ignorance of this particular kind of medical crisis.

    My Dad suffered the exact same sequence of complications - bleeding followed by respiratory infection and impairment - after a heart valve operation when he was exactly Senor Chavez's age, 58.

    The patient is generally conscious, although the doctors keep him/her sedated and asleep much of the time.

    When awake, he's given a series of respiratory exercises to do, over and over, to improve functioning gradually. It is impossible to talk for a long time. But the patient can communicate via hand gestures and can write in his stronger moments.

    There are setbacks, and it is typical to be moved in and out of intensive care.

    Meanwhile, this kind of medical scenario causes extreme swelling of the head and face, especially during these setbacks. The patient looks like a monster - with gray-green skin and wildly distorted features. It is very painful for loved ones to look at him. The thought of allowing photos of such a patient is out of the question. The message would be ultra-negative, while, in fact, the medical prognosis could well be much better than the patient's appearance!

    My Dad stayed in the hospital for about four months. But he lived another 32 years, to age 90. He had two more heart valve operations over the years, both without serious complications.

    Now, cancer is different, of course, especially a recurring cancer.

    But I have no trouble whatsoever believing the statements of Senor Chavez's family and close associates. And as someone who has lived through this kind of medical scenario affecting a family member, I can fully understand why tapes and photos at this point would be impossible to issue.
    Jan 19, 2013. 04:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teekay Tankers Ltd. - An Alternative Analysis [View article]
    This thread has come full circle!

    Double bottom - or close to it - will now be THE point to buy heavily for the wild ride the next several years. Remember Diana the last time?

    This time, with the Greeks less prominent, shall we say, the Scandinavians will get the most action again.

    I'm still patient. Seasonals should work with us the next time around. Sit and pounce!
    Jan 19, 2013. 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally Sold On Ford [View article]
    As per usual, the Opportunist is covering his posterior, since HE was the one who was loudest bashing Ford a few short weeks ago when it was under pressure by a Whale who was Sloppy Selling.

    His behavior re Ford was noticed by pretty everyone in the market and has not helped his dwindling reputation for astute stock picking.

    Yes, Cramer, urge your "Cramericans" to sell at 9 but buy back at 14!

    Bravo to Those of Us who defied Tiny Terror on Ford every step of the way! (And there are quite a few of us at SA.)
    Jan 19, 2013. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Finishing Week On Firm Note [View article]
    Your argument about Japanese carmakers is a very old one - i.e. five decades old!

    This was an astonishingly prompt complaint on the part of the Big Three automakers, who are hiring faster and more than any other US industry and are therefore important to the continued growth of US jobs.

    I think the Obama-ites will act very quickly to protect them.

    As for other complainants - already! - it is not only the South Koreans, but also pretty much all of ASEAN, plus the Brazilians.

    As I said, China doesn't have to scream and yell about it. They can easily thwart the Japanese by their actions domestically, while allowing the rest of the world, including the US, to take care of the Japanese via overt pressure - and PPT trading.

    Since I do not trade currencies, as you know, I am not "talking my book." But I would urge those who DO trade currencies to be very wary of what is already a much too crowded Yen Short trade dominated by me-too amateurs.
    Jan 19, 2013. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing (BA) suspends deliveries of 787 Dreamliner planes pending FAA approval, though the company plans to continue production of the plane, according to a Bloomberg report. Deliveries are important because that’s when plane makers get large bulk payments on the purchase price of a jet. [View news story]
    The best way to play Boeing problems is via Bombardier, which looks to be close to a very nice breakout.

    Bloomie's had a lead story stating what has annoyed many shareholders for a long time: Embraer has been given an unconscionable 86 percent valuation premium over Bomber, despite the fact that among aircraft producers, only Bombardier is a major factor in passenger rail, which is on the verge of a true Renaissance worldwide.
    Jan 19, 2013. 05:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons To Consider Goldcorp Now [View article]
    GG's main advantage over its nearest peers now is that both Barrick and NEM are pretty much FORCED to make either major acquisitions or a whole series of lesser ones very soon.

    GG has enough on its plate already - especially when they can finally proceed with El Morro.

    When the next sector rally begins in earnest - it may well be beginning now! - GG deserves to start moving faster than Barrick and NEM. In addition, when this happens, it tends to be a Signaler for both the XAU and the HUI, which is self-reinforcing.

    Another plus: A bunch of exhausted analysts have thrown in the towel the past few weeks and lowered Targets. That is almost always the signal for a contrarian breakout in this kind of stock. If you want confirmations, note that the Median Target is already above the Mean Target in the US stock - and probably going to spread to a couple of dollars above within the next week or so - while the Canadian consensus Target - i.e. the analysts who are actually smart and understand the company! - is now a whopping 6 dollars above the consensus US Target.

    I love to look at these Target divergences in the major Gold stocks, because they are virtually always accurate forecasters of a nice coming rally.
    Jan 19, 2013. 05:32 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Loonie Break May Signal Forthcoming Declines In Metals, Energy [View article]
    Loonie "breaks" pretty much every other day and bounces back the day after.

    TSX has been outperforming the Dow lately.

    Both Gold and Silver - and possibly Brent - may make major runs UP within a few trading days.

    Silver is just itching to break out.

    Gung ho currency traders may be trying to Push It to the Limit on their Yen Shorts. But already - and this is very fast! - pretty much every competing exporter in the world is complaining loudly. It's a completely different kettle of fish from the Euro Short of the Century they were pumping last year. That was based - erroneously, it turns out - on belief the Euro Bloc was terminal. Japanese intervention is based on one thing only: An advantage for Japanese exporters over everybody else.
    Jan 19, 2013. 01:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No day trading for Uncle Sam. Instead, the Treasury Department has reportedly taken the next step in its arrangement to sell its stake in General Motors (GM -1.2%) by initiating a prearranged trading plan. According to the schedule, the entire 300M share position in GM will be liquidated within 12 to 15 months. [View news story]
    Nonsense!

    The massive Yen interventions are only a few trading days old and ALREADY the Big Three are all over it.

    Japan is going to get shot down hard, IMO. There is pretty much no country not furious with them right now - and for it to happen so fast IS extraordinary.
    Jan 18, 2013. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Old Guard Analysts And Their Gold Price Forecasts - Part 2 [View article]
    Once again: GFMS is itself a deep LBMA insider, consisting primarily of top people formerly with the LBMA. They are generally extremely cautious. So their predicting that Silver will touch 50 in 2013 is very significant.

    Even more intriguing is Commerzbank's statement yesterday that Silver will average over 37 in 2013. That presumes its hitting 40 at least a coupla times.

    Commerzbank's statement is extremely significant because Commerzbank now holds most of the Dread Dresdner Mega Silver Short, plague of the sector for three decades.

    Methinks the author of this piece is either very Short or playing for those who are - possibly good ole Simon of the Many Names and his allies Alvin and Theodore.
    Jan 18, 2013. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No day trading for Uncle Sam. Instead, the Treasury Department has reportedly taken the next step in its arrangement to sell its stake in General Motors (GM -1.2%) by initiating a prearranged trading plan. According to the schedule, the entire 300M share position in GM will be liquidated within 12 to 15 months. [View news story]
    This is important, and I am amazed it is not yet "in the market," at least according to CNBC.

    This morning, say several reports, the Big Three US automakers made formal complaints to the Obama administration about blatant Japanese currency manipulation.

    With an auto revival as the centerpiece of a greater manufacturing revival in the US - and with the major automakers poised to report earnings results - that "Yen Short of the Century" - especially with so many rank amateurs in Asia and elsewhere now in the trade - may now get strongly intervened against by the US's own PPTs.
    Jan 18, 2013. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With A 10% Market Correction Possible, It's Time To Sell Overbought Stocks [View article]
    Big Three Automakers made formal joint complaint to Obama administration about Japanese currency manipulation this morning!

    This is a very, very big deal.

    Add to this the EPA's acting like the very best kind of little buddy to Ford - on Ford's side now - after the Consumer Reports story - and F is now a screaming Buy through May, so long as it doesn't disappoint on earnings, which analysts seem to think it will not.

    Now that it's gotten a nice, calm consolidation, it is probably safe to buy before earnings report Tuesday. If good enough, it will get another bunch of raised Targets, with some exceeding 20.

    I could be wrong, but I think I'm right. Let's see what we shall see.
    Jan 18, 2013. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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