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jarco

jarco
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  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    Your intro comment that you don't know much about the oil patch is quiet evident. While it will take some time for the dust to settle, oil shale's future depends upon the status of the Keystone Pipeline. It is thought that Tar Sands is the world largest oil reserve. Unleashing it will flood the western hemisphere with crude. Yes, it may be a few years away but time has a way of accelerating as the world economic supply/demand model slowly adjusts.
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: The Only Way I Would Buy Its Stock [View article]
    The interesting REIT issue aside, there is limited competition in this space over-all. They're all vying for spectrum and minimizing wireless churn but at the end of the day, T and VZ will be the only ones standing, in my opinion. Something revolutionary will redoubtably come along either by some start up ala Google, et al or the likes of a China Mobil. Technically, it's hard to visualize this ultimate scenario costing a mint to construct/implement. Meanwhile, I'll take the dividend from both. Given the current interest rate conditions, this combination is now 10% of my portfolio. An investment first in a lifetime.
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:21 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan And The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Truth Regarding Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    OPEC (Saudi) refusal to drop production AND the oil shale glut indeed caused the market drop further bolstered by the general market sentiment souring. This is classically exponential rather than a pure linear function.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Has Oil Dropped So Quickly? What Are We Doing About It? [View article]
    Why is it when the U.S. oil shale boom flooded the domestic market we blame the Saudi's for not cutting production? While it's well known our friends in the desert feed their population with oil revenues sustaining their feudal economic system, assuming an ignorance among the oil minister clan is a dangerous path, in my view.

    The Saudi's are a world wide investment machine. Over the past decade, western enterprises have been "forced" into joint ventures supplying plastics and other oil related by-product industries within the Kingdom and elsewhere. These are wide spread enterprises both in terms of product diversity and non-mid east geography. Beyond that, a recently implemented program is geared to put their population into the workforce replacing decades of expensive imported labor. While generations into the making, the feudal system is gradually being steered into oblivion.

    On balance, it's too easy the point the correctly identified supply side as the culprit. Quite an investment challenge for those of us with decades worth of trying to understand the oil patch. From that perspective, this article's conclusions appear problematic, in my opinion.
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    The infrastructure is in place and new discovery wells are minimal relative to the number already in production. Saudi finding costs are the worlds lowest. They simply vary the pumping volume to fit their needs and can well afford to do so in the current pricing environment. As prices drop, U.S shale and Canadian Tar Sands production AND new drilling will decline and the % of Saudi oil to the rest of the world will normalize. Bottom line, oil shale business will suffer. For crude oil, he party's over, in my view. NG is another story and undoubtedly where the investment opportunities are much better. This likely is reflected in XOM's stock price decline much less than most competitors.
    Dec 14, 2014. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Even With Capex Cut Production Growth Continues [View article]
    What's your take on the impact to COP's Tar Sands and other Canadian production (24% of their total) if the Keystone Pipeline is not approved? The CEO thinks its crucial as is reversing the ban on exports.

    It's my view the approval, while creating short term construction jobs, Keystone will create such a glut in La and Tx, most of the flow will be exported. The dream of $2 gasoline will evaporate for the sake of "stabilizing" the worlds oil market. Not sure I give a hoot about the world when the 90% of my portfolio not invested in the oil patch would enjoy the uptick in the U.S. economy via $2 gasoline (jet fuel, diesel, etc) would create. Comments?
    Dec 11, 2014. 08:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisit Bank Of Nova Scotia In 2015 [View article]
    A good time to consider BNS? The Canadian economy is weakening due to the over reliance of Tar Sand crude. This is further complicated by the decline in mining and associated industries. Can't be a good time to consider any bank as the effects will trickle down and could possibly look like a flood in the longer term.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Plains All American Pipeline Down So Much? [View article]
    Nice article. Thanks for your work here.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Plains All American Pipeline Down So Much? [View article]
    The worst is yet to come. The oil industry (ref: COP CEO comments last week) want the crude export ban lifted to "stabilize" the world's oil market. Beyond that, Tar Sands via Keystone is essential. Seems the refineries in La & Tx can't handle the lighter % of sweet crude coming out of oil shale. They need to add Tar Sands highly sour to the mix. Anyone looking for $2 gasoline won't see it on a sustained basis

    As a consumer and investor holding COP, PAA, and others, pleas of this nature and magnitude are outrageous . . . . and given the mentality in Washington, Keystone may likely be approved.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • As Jobs Surge, Term Structure Of U.S. Unemployment Remains Distorted [View article]
    The debate over whether we need more H-1B visas for tech workers originates from the long range view that the U.S. educational system is a failure. A look at the student loan debt supports the view that no one . . . . . government, industry, secondary school systems, etc. have a supply/demand clue. The U.S. Department of Education is more focused on student lunches than student career planning.
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal Is Another Canadian Bank I Am Analyzing For My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Plotting Canadian bank stocks vs. selected U.S. institutions suggest its still time to stay away from Canada. 3 mos, YTD, 2 yr charts all show BAC and C are up double digits while TD and BMO are in the red.
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Conversation With Rye Patch Gold's Bill Howald [View article]
    Why is this article listed in S/A under "Electric Utilities"?
    Dec 7, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Santander: Why Was The CEO Fired? And What Does That Mean? [View article]
    With SAN's banking operations in a number of very different locals, one would wonder how open the UK people being promoted by Botin will perform. Her father had an uncanny understanding of the global business climate and the people it took to execute over that broad range. While I would not suggest alerting ones investment in SAN, in my view it clearly adds some level of uncertainty.
    Dec 5, 2014. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: Are Lower Oil Prices Going To Cripple Growth Going Forward? [View article]
    Hopefully our friend Jeff will step down.
    Dec 3, 2014. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's talk $2 gas [View news story]
    In response to the article, "Lets Talk $2 Gas", the goal is a dream never to be realized. A prime detriment is approval of the Keystone Pipeline. This project, while creating needed short term construction jobs, will swamp the Texas and Louisiana refineries that already are at full capacity with no new ones on the horizon. Recently, the CEO of ConocoPhillips urged a reversal of the crude export ban suggesting if we export it will, in his words, stabilize the world oil market. I read that as good for the world (and COP) but bad for U.S. gasoline consumers. He further verified and clarified the refinery problem. Seems our refiners are historically geared to process sour and heavy crude. The inclusion of now copious amounts of sweet shale oil cannot be readily handled. Is the oil company tail wagging the U.S. dog? Or is the oil company dog doing its business upon the U.S. gasoline consumer?

    Readers should note I'm a registered Republican and COP (among other) stock holder. My car requires 93 octane which at times is 30-50 cents above the price of regular. I can afford it but it bothers me to see someone at an adjoining pump having to dole out $3 or more for 2-3 time what I use to fill their truck towing a lawn mower trailer or other small business vehicle. Obama want to re-build the middle class. We're about to see what he thinks about that election theme.

    Keystone serves no one. It'll be a marketing boon to our friends north of the border and a solution for the oil industry. Too bad this and numerous prior administrations can't find the courage to enact a comprehensive energy policy so these debacles will occur less frequently. Stay tuned America . . . . and watch out for that dog!
    Nov 29, 2014. 12:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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