jarco

GE Results Validate Theory: Severe Economic Contraction

While I sense the gloom and doom may be over-rated, this is an excellent article; a real thought provoker. Thanks for your work.

Having worked for GE and followed the business since departing, their current posture should be of prime interest going forward. Clearly very “industrial”, GE’s market was set up to be dominate in the respective segments; no more being #2 Avis for them. Aside from the all-important and singularly the largest business known as GE Capital, each of the hard good producers deserves study in light of this article. In essence, where will the recovery and subsequent growth come from?

GE medical, while technically robust particularly through important pseudo partnerships in Japan and France, will face greatly diminished hospital and lab testing CapEx. In striving for growth, technology improvements fueled sales now no longer sustainable.

Turbines face declining airframe business but growing large-scale power demands. Competition among wind turbine and nuclear power is worse than stiff. GE is almost off the table in both arenas.

Locomotives, appliances, etc. may go the way of toasters. This adding to the problem all US based companies face; namely, insufficient numbers of technically trained prospective employees. Coupled with anti-terrorist driven quota cutbacks, industrial innovation is moving off shore. Along with any hope for business recovery.

Does this scenario mirror US business? All taxes, budget deficit, and universal medical issues aside, perhaps the road ahead is much steeper than even this article suggests. What do you think?

How Larry Summers Lost Harvard $1.8 Billion

Summers has very little of "real world" success which is why Obama likely picked him. Scorecard so far C-

Not All Dividend Stocks Are Overvalued

They must be robbing banks or investing in very risky drivatives to guarantee those kinds of returns. Think about it. All thats after paying very high sales commissions, management fees, adminstrative fees, and insurance premiums.


On Sep 10 09:42 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> You can get "returns" like this from a CD without the risk of share
> price dropping.
>
> Unless you're buying them in a tax advantaged account like a Roth
> IRA, the dividends are taxable. These sub-4% returns are less than
> inflation and taxes. Plus they have risk.
>
> Last week I put a small chunk into a fixed Allianz annuity with a
> 10% bonus, guaranteed 7.5% annual interest PLUS it has an opportunity
> for market gains, should there be any. The interest accumulates tax
> free. It is GUARANTEED to at least double in less than 10 years.
> And it is written by a RESERVE insurance company. Not one person
> has ever lost a penny with a reserve product. No risk. It is semi-liquid,
> you lose the bonus and pay a penalty to close it. If I die, it goes
> tax free to my kids.
>
> I don't have enough money to buy risky low-return dividends that
> don't keep up with inflation and taxes. So I don;t "get" these piddling
> dividend stocks.
>
> Yes, there are many kinds of annuities, most of which are risky and
> written by non-reserve companies. Yes, you have to know what you're
> buying. But in this market and what I see on the horizon, I see no
> future for sub-4% dividends to keep up with inflation and taxes.
>
>
> I have no interest in Allianz.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

A PhD from where?

The gist of the article addresses the incremental cost for all those who would not normally be in the buying mode. One can argue the exact math and thereby miss the entire point of the article. The question is: How many got a windfall bonus who would otherwise have traded-in whether or not this program ever existed.


On Aug 01 11:23 AM hajimow wrote:

> I recommend either the author or the web site take this article off
> to respect the readers. I have PhD in math and I started to cry when
> I read this article. Don't they teach math in US? The only conclusion
> that I can get is that the author is a hard core republican who does
> not waht to get it. The fact is that 2 billion will be used when
> 2 billion divided by $4000 { average of $4500 and $3500} =500,000
> cars are sold under this plan and not with 22000 cars !!!

Forget Green Shoots: These Are the Brown Shoots Turning Black

Interesting take. I'll let the Kudlow responses speak for themselves. He prompts a quick channel change in my pad.

GE Is David Hartzell's Highest Conviction Holding - Here's Why

Having previously worked for GE and as a modest pension receiver followed the company in great detail, I tend to agree with most commentators.

GE Capital provided most of the profits and has all but disappeared as a contributor and more importantly is still a huge liability. Their exposure to a multitude of debt holders including the aircraft/airline industry is not only extensive but likely unrecoverable.

GE's linkage to the US economy should worry everyone. The US dollar is in serious trouble. Our government is becoming more dysfunctional; unable to grasp the root of many problems and unwilling to tackle those it sees and likely doesn't understand.

I recommend Tom Freidman's very recent interview with Charlie Rose as an educational tool. GE as an investment. Run don't walk away from Jeff & Co.


On Nov 23 09:25 AM Mrudula Shah wrote:

> None of the commentators above have personally invested in, studied
> GE affairs, and actually worked for GE as the author has. Yet, they
> claim to know better!! Strange. I think they are trying to mislead
> readers in the game of "shorting"..

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

This article needs national newsprint circulation so more of the masses can understandably misconstrue the main point of this well written article. I suspect the wider the circulation the greater the ignorance.

Petrobras’ Long-Term Prospects Look as Strong as Ever

Perhaps the better question is whether Brazil joins OPEC?

The Age of Turbulence: Preparing for the Crash

Speaking of oil prices . . . . . Similar to Marlboro cigaretts and Levi jeans in the 1970-80's in Europe, the Chinese fell in love with the US dating back to our early black & white movies. You know, with all those Buicks.

This was followed by their admiration of our power dam projects. They studied our designs on a first hand basis and proceeded to institute very large flood control and power projects. China is on a path to replicate the US in power generation and consumption.

Eisenhower's 1950's Interstate highway system was next. They are currently building a massive highway system that will give birth to an automobile revolution. China will put enough cars in use to double the worlds count within the next ten years.

Coal and auto pollution aside, demand for fuel will drive oil prices through the proverbial roof. Think about it. While US auto production peaked at what 15 -17 million annually, China will produce 100 million/year for the foreseeable future.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Right on. Unfortunately, the comments you refered to reflect badly upon the readership IQ of this blog site


On Jul 31 01:34 PM Philman wrote:

> You guys need to learn economics. You either didn't read the article
> or can't understand the concept being discussed.
>
> The math is absolutely correct. The idea is that a certain number
> of cars/trucks would have been sold anyway - Edmunds says 200,000
> clunkers are traded in for fuel efficient vehicles EVEN WITHOUT GOVERNMENT
> SUBSIDIES!
>
> The cost to the government of a "stimulus" is NOT $3,500 - $4,500
> per car, because many buyers are getting the money even though they
> WOULD HAVE BOUGHT ANYWAY, without the program.
>
> At $4,500 per extra car, the program costs the government $45,354
> for each extra sale, above those that are normally sold anyway, exactly
> as the article states.

Does the Auto Industry Deserve To Be Bailed Out?

To the author Nirav, your statement "The execs for the Big Three automakers each took private jets to their testimony before Congress yesterday. Average cost for the flight from Detroit to Washington? $20,000… Northwest had flights available that day for $288 coach, $837 first-class." deminishes ones interest in the remainder of your comments.

If I'm likely paying an executive $2500 plus an hour, his/her 12-15 hour day is worth more than the cost of the trip. How many conference call minutes could occur between the exec and his staff in Detroit on a Northwest flight. Zero. Aside from whatever he/she could accomplish while testifying, the whole day is shot and right at time critical in the business.

Since you haven't been there, you're excused.

Energy Impoverishment: Heading Back to Coal?

Based upon the number of comments, a provocative article. Bottom line, its hard to compare coal or oil to solar. Make no mistake however, coal is dead. While it generates the majority of power in the US, utilities with the lions share will sooner than later feel the negative publicity. When stock prices reflect investor sentiment, coal will be under merciless attack.

What Happens When the Government Stops Propping Up Housing?

The bigger question is what happens to the entire domestic economy when the government stops propping it up? Everywhere one looks its "stimulus" money being spent without any synergy. We're not teaching anyone to fish merely feeding for the moment.

Any recovery cannot be sustained without continuous Fed $. Meanwhile the public debt increases and our ability to re-pay it becomes more and more of an impossibility.

GE to Close Its Only U.S. Solar Panel Factory

Simply adds to the notion that GE is slowly but surely becoming an also ran.

Geithner's Plan Is a Waste of Time

The real waste in reading this article was the total lack of an alternative plan or, as a minimum, a brief outline of differing tactics.

While we all recognize the ease of fault finding, absent constructive comments of this issue, serious readers go elsewhere.