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Jolly_Rancher

Jolly_Rancher
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  • Insiders Signaling More Upside In Amtech [View article]
    Seems like a cheap valuation at $5.0. I bought a few. Will buy more if a few key insiders buy, like a CFO or SVP.
    Aug 27, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    "I don't need to ask what DGI enthusiasts get out of writing and praising these articles."

    Indeed I think you should ask what they get out of it. Most of these DGI articles are simply cloaked pump jobs for REITS, BDCs and MLPs. Notice how most of these DGI stock lists are comprised of top blue chip stocks like PG which are supposed to lend credence by association to a low grade investment like DLR.
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Investors' Flipping Offers A Compelling Entry Point Into SunEdison Semiconductor [View article]
    SEMI is too leveraged for my liking but I decided that it was worth the gamble at $13.15 today. If what we are experiencing in the world economy shall be called a smooth landing rather than the beginning of a recession, SEMI stock should roar back to new highs within a year. If not, bad timing on my part.
    Aug 19, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: You don't hike rates with junk bonds at 4-year low [View news story]
    I think what JG is asking is, "Where's the punch bowl?"
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • St. Louis Fed official takes on Bernanke-era memes [View news story]
    The Fed can "normalize" rates. They can go back to speaking circumlocutions and enigmas. But they cannot convince investors that ours is a normal healthy economy, especially with market inflation expectations falling and risk spreads widening.
    Aug 18, 2015. 03:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even At $16, Lumber Liquidators Can Keep Falling [View article]
    I'm beginning to nibble at $13.50
    Aug 5, 2015. 01:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Start Looking For A Bottom On International Shipholding [View article]
    Check out the street view 864 S Peters St, New Orleans, LA which cost $3.5 million. Looks like they are actually building a parking garage for a hundred people. The 10Q states that they are presently abandoning their lease in Mobile and may be on the hook for $3.5 million and are moving 100 office employees to temporary location in New Orleans. In return they get $10.27 million economic incentives from the state of Louisiana, probably income tax credits which they can sell immediately. So the move will end up costing about $5-7 million. Are we still looking for a bottom or is this really bottomless?
    Aug 3, 2015. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TAL International: Current Decline Reaching An Outrageous Point [View article]
    I think it would be appropriate to mention the gorilla in the room: China. If the Chinese economy unravels, it would not be unreasonable to expect trade to lock up globally and cause TAL to earn significantly less than $3.00. Commodity prices and shipping stocks are suggesting this is a highly probable event.
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    It's a little known fact that a portfolio of randomly selected stocks will on average outperform the index from which they are selected. Try it for yourself: http://tinyurl.com/qdj... Select 20 stocks to select randomly from the S&P 500 to see the 10 year returns compared to the S&P 500 return. Why is the return of a random portfolio greater than the index from which it is chosen randomly? http://tinyurl.com/qdn...
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    Usually a new discount brokerage customer is given a few free trades, possibly 25. Wouldn't using those free trades to buy 25 random stocks listed in the holdings section of a few index funds be cheaper than buying the lowest fee ETF? He would diversify, probably have beta equal to the market's, and incur no fees. Money added to the account could be placed in a commission-free ETF until next year when he gets 25 more free trades.
    Jul 14, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Beta: The World's #1 Passive Fund [View article]
    "You get 25 free trades per year if you keep over $1 million and you get 500 free trades per year if you keep over $10 million at Vanguard"

    Seems to me that a guy with your intelligence and time could use the free trades to construct your own ETF very similar to Vanguard's by buying some of the stocks in its holdings and adjusting your portfolio occasionally, maybe even trying to anticipate the fund's next purchases. There. Zero fee ETF!!
    Jul 7, 2015. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore The 'Buffett Indicator' [View article]
    CAPE is not correlated with or predictive of anything. Period. It's strictly coincidental: http://tinyurl.com/o8c.... Average investor equity allocation actually correlates much more with 10 year equity returns: http://tinyurl.com/pmu... but is just as much of a goose chase. Both theories fall victim to numerator-denominator fuzzy math, selective curve fitting and/or conveniently cancelling errors.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudia Arabia set to pump maximum crude, analysts predict [View news story]
    "With an increasingly compelling picture of lower oil prices over the next 10-20 years" -- I'm personally very happy with low oil prices, but 10-20 years is an extremely long time, quite a limb to go out on, unless no one actually remembers this prediction... A distinct probability over the next few hours.
    Jun 19, 2015. 07:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Will Slow Down [View article]
    I am quite excited about the ETF movement. It creates an entire class of investors who would seem by nature to be long term oriented and by definition blind to firm risk, whose automaton fund managers sell stock in firms whose market cap is falling because the index is market cap weighted. Everyone wins. Those investors get their 6-9% per year. But I'm more interested in risk adjusted irrationally priced companies with good management and decent prospects. You might say no one can actually beat the market long term with the latter, but actually the ETF movement itself creates that opportunity. It's as if a huge number of people at the race track started betting on every horse using some kind of long term horse winnings formula, blind to things like age of horse, jockey, track condition, etc. It screws up the odds in favor of bookies and race mavens.
    May 23, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators lower after Cantor capitulates on bull call [View news story]
    Looks good at $15. Not worth the risk above that. Switching cost is very low. Product differentiation poor. Cyclical risk somewhat high.
    May 19, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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