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Jolly_Rancher

Jolly_Rancher
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  • OHA Investment Corporation: A BDC Trading At 30% Discount To NAV With Significant Margin Of Safety [View article]
    True, but Castex has much of it hedged through 2015. 2016 unknown. But I wager they are able to PIF 7/2016.
    Apr 16, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OHA Investment Corporation: A BDC Trading At 30% Discount To NAV With Significant Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Castex is mostly NG.
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OHA Investment Corporation: A BDC Trading At 30% Discount To NAV With Significant Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Looks to me like OHAI hasn't been willing to pay the ATP lawyers' extortion so they took it back into bankruptcy where it could be for a long time because the case turns on the testimony of the lawyers who created the original agreement. You know lawyers can say anything. Maybe new management is more willing to settle at a higher price to avoid the legal fees or maybe they are content collecting the disgorgement while gradually writing off the ORRI knowing they will probably win in court -- eventually.
    Apr 9, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OHA Investment Corporation: A BDC Trading At 30% Discount To NAV With Significant Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Regarding your two major overhangs...

    1) The ATP is a lawyer's dream case. It will not be resolved anytime soon.
    2) Castex is one of their best assets states G. August on the conf call. PIF ==> 7/2016
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom's Not In----Why This Market Is Dumber Than A Mule [View article]
    1. Major topping pattern. NO
    2. Increase in price volatility. YES
    3. Internal divergence with respect to the NYSE advance/decline line. NO
    4. Internal divergence with respect to NYSE new highs as a percentage of issues traded. NO
    5. Weekly momentum divergence(s) on the major indices. NO.
    6. Hot group melt up. YES.
    7. Weakening relative strength small/mid vs large. NO.
    8. Sentiment blow-off. MAYBE.
    9. Heavy selling of leader stocks. NO.
    10.Topping action in the relative strength leaders. Financials, YES?
    11. Flattened yield curve. NO.
    12. Low priced stocks melt up. NO.

    Many more NO than YES. Most of this checklist was mentioned in a recent Ritholtz article. He gets credit.
    Mar 26, 2015. 11:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • King Dollar And The Deflationary Growth Steamroller.  [View instapost]
    You sound like a really smart guy, so I don't really understand why you don't think commodities can't be in a bear market while companies that produce winning noncommodities are in a bull. It's simple, commodities are going down, while those companies that produce winning noncommodities are going up and are added to the indexes. Those companies that produce losing noncommodities are going down and are dropped from the indexes. Therefore the indexes go up. I agree that someday the piper calls all to go down, but don't shoot till you see the whites of their eyes.
    Mar 20, 2015. 10:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Explaining Lumber Liquidators' Reckless Strategy, And Rebutting Its Claims About Deconstructive Testing [View article]
    In the end game, the loser always plays the bluff. Cut costs to the bone, deny everything, pump sales. More often it means going out in flames. But sometimes the bluff wins. There are only a few relevant questions. 1) Can the attorneys dredge up a "significant" number of people who can show they actually bought high formaldehyde flooring and show bloody noses, a cough and/or head ache? Answer: No. There will be a manageable settlement eventually. 2) Aren't reduced margin, high inventory, high legal costs and flagging sales enough to send this stock back into the teens from whence it came? Answer: Yes.
    Mar 15, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Overpriced At $40 And Has Legitimate Risk Of Going To $0 [View article]
    Maybe technically you're correct, but from a legal point of view you have no leg to stand on. See here for case precedent: http://tinyurl.com/mw4... where 55,000 Katrina evacuees successfully sued and received settlement in the amount of $42 million. There were no floors to replace or inventory to write down. That was pure damages for headaches, nose bleeds and breathing difficulties.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Overpriced At $40 And Has Legitimate Risk Of Going To $0 [View article]
    It seems about 1/4 of inventory will be written off. Usually that would be a noncash transaction followed by a heavy discount to move the inventory. Obviously the company can't sell this inventory because a) no one wants it and b) it may fall under an injunction as evidence. Not a pretty picture.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vulcan Materials upgraded at RBC [View news story]
    The stock price has appreciated from $33 in 2012 to $85 today. Just how "early stage" is this?
    Feb 26, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CareTrust REIT: Deeply Undervalued Spin-Off [View article]
    A big round of applause is in order. Great call. Great first article. I already owned it at $10 (before the special dividend), but bought a lot more at $11.20 after your article.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Anti-austerity Syriza set to sweep Greek elections [View news story]
    There aren't many examples of austerity working anyway, nor a monetary union. The monetary union should have also been thought through a little more. At any rate, the Greek election itself is not of great importance, except for the fact that it sets a precedent, and we know that Spain will follow the example. Spain cannot endure the status quo. And THAT will unravel markets because the debt they owe is huge and tangled.
    Jan 25, 2015. 02:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Williams not averse to additional QE [View news story]
    This is the best string of comments I've read in a long time on seekingalpha, full of luny tune bearish gold bug numnuts. I LIKE IT!
    Oct 14, 2014. 02:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on payrolls: Wages and participation rate slip [View news story]
    The stock market votes YES to Obama. It voted NO to Bush. Obama is stable. Bush is a loose cannon. Obama cut government payrolls; increased nondiscretionary spending and recession relief payments. Bush spent heavily on nondiscretionary programs and needless wars. Get a grip. It isn't about politics. It's about what works.
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: September Fleet Status Report [View article]
    not a discussion without calculating ability to make debt payments.
    Sep 18, 2014. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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