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  • Why Sales Estimates for Dendreon's Provenge Are Too Low [View article]
    I agree with you. $75,000 for 4 months doesn't look great compared to some drugs in trial that are resulting in a large percentage patient complete remission, like SGEN, MITI, MNKD, CLDX, etc etc. There's going to be a lot of competition in immunotherapy. I am not saying sell DNDN, but I am saying diversification may be the best bet.

    On May 18 05:16 PM tredleon wrote:

    > While it seems plausible that there will be significant off-label
    > demand from earlier-stage patients, I have doubts about long-term
    > pricing and competition. The most troubling thing to me about the
    > data for Provenge is how at the end of the study period, which I
    > believe was 5 years, there was no difference in survival - in other
    > words, the Kaplan Meier curves between the treated and placebo groups
    > merged back together - the same percentage of patients were alive
    > from both groups at the end of the study. And since I would guess
    > 75%+ of the patients suffering from prostrate cancer are under Medicare/Medicaid,
    > pricing will be subject to whatever new rules the Obama administration
    > is going to push through. Call it rationing or whatever you want,
    > I question whether the govt is going to be willing to spend $4Billion+
    > per year to give a small patient population 4 extra months of survival.
    > And even if they do, it is only a matter of time before a better
    > vaccine or treatment comes along - 4 months will not be hard to beat.
    May 19 11:17 am |Rating: +1 -1 |Link to Comment
  • Biotech: The Next Big Bubble? [View article]
    Nova,

    How can you tell if management is honest? What are the things you look for?

    Thanks.
    Jolly Rancher


    On Nov 29 03:00 PM nova wrote:

    > Biotech investing is quite simple:
    > - A company must have a not very corrupt and so-so quality management
    >
    > - Clinical trials data in Ph II and, even better, in Ph III must
    > be solid
    > - Buy these stocks and wait (do not trade)
    >
    > So far, I have succeeded with ABGX, MLNM, IMCL, Biochem Pharma, Gild.
    > The first four were takenover, and the last did very well. But it
    > took 3-7 years.
    >
    > There is very few over-night successes in general. Oncology and HIV
    > are the good areas.
    Dec 01 17:28 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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