Mr BSG

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

Ask your niece which product she would prefer to use;


1 - a product that inhales insulin into her lungs (MNKD)

or

2 - a product that sprays insulin into her mouth/cheeks
(GNBT)

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

Are there any companies or segments of biotech you would recommend investors stay away from in the near term?

We are currently negative on the inhaled insulin segment. Therefore, we have a Sell rating on Mannkind Corporation (MNKD), which develops inhaled insulin.

The inhaled insulin program was once thought to be the garden of blockbusters for diabetes treatment. But things all changed since October 2007 when Pfizer (PFE) withdrew its marketing support of Exubera, the first FDA-approved inhaled insulin on the market.

Following the withdrawal of marketing support of Exubera from Pfizer, Novo Nordisk (NVO)/Aradigm and Eli Lilly (LLY)/Alkermes (ALKS) discontinued their late stage inhaled insulin programs respectively in early 2008. The reason for the withdrawal or discontinuation is apparently the lack of market prospectus for inhaled insulin products which has been evidenced by the very slow uptake of Exubera sales (only $12 million in the first three quarters of 2007). Another reason is the potential risk for lung cancer of inhaled insulin products.

We have a Sell rating on Mannkind based on our general negative view on the inhaled insulin segment. MNKD relies heavily on its inhaled insulin program with a very weak pipeline. Also, the company is burning cash at too high a rate and cash position is a matter of great concern.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

" It merely passes through the lungs in a matter of seconds. "


LOL and how exactly then, does it get into the bloodstream.

DUH !

$1.00 by Dec

You watch.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

I would never allow my child to inhale insulin. The lungs are not designed to process insulin and PFE has already confirmed the demand does not exist.

There's a company out there called Generex - GNBT - that has a product that delivers insulin and is absorbed through the cheeks of the mouth - buccal delivery - where NOTHING EVER enters the lungs.

No health issues and their product Oral Lyn, is currently selling in India and is in Phase III in the US, Canada and Europe.

If interested there's a conference call on Tuesday.

investor.generex.com/r...

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part VI)

" Therefore, the failure of these other three products in the marketplace is totally irrelevant."

" why has Mannkind’s stock fallen to $2.89? That’s down a whopping 87% from its March 2006 price of $22! "


The only thing that's irrelvant is your senseless pumping of this stock. You contradict yourself throughout the 6 Part Pump, to the point of being totally laughable.

MNKD, PFE, NOVO and Lilly are all inhaled and all have or will (MNKD) FAIL.

PFE has the largest Pharma Salesforce in the world and they couldn't convince Dr.s or patients to use exubera.

MNKD has no salesforce

MNKD has no partner and will never find a partner to kick in $1 Billion.

MNKD has an inferior product that has already been rejected by the market.

MNKD will NEVER get FDA Approval.

MNKD will be out of cash by Nov. 2008

MNKD has 600 employees that do exactly WHAT all day!

I stick by my prediction of $1.00 by Dec 2008 and bankrupt in 2009. In fact, both may come sooner than expected.

Buyer beware of this dog, regardless of what you read on the internet.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part V)

Now that was a well written, logical article. Thanks.

No pie in the sky stuff, like the SP will move 5x's todays price, etc ,etc.



" It all boils down to one question, one valuation. Will Technosphere Insulin succeed? If yes, then the stock is crazy cheap. If no, there is no reason in the world to buy it and it probably isn’t worth the paper that it’s printed on"

Actually the stock isn't cheap. It's sitting with a MC of around $300 Mil, with approval of their only product - T1 - years away.

Good luck

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

That $350 Million has to be paid back and the only option MNKD will ever have is to issue stock. Slice and dice it which ever way you please but this is serious MAJOR debt accumulating here.

" In October 2007, we issued and sold a total of 27,014,686 shares of our common stock. Of this total, 15,940,489 shares were sold to our principal stockholder at a price per share of $9.41 and 11,074,197 shares were sold to other investors at a price per share of $9.03. "

"other investors" are on the hook for a $100 Million worth of stock they purchased in Oct 2007. That investment is now worth $30 Million.


Mr Manns investment of $150 M is now worth $42 Mil.

Good luck finding one investor that will throw any serious money at this company.

If it weren't for Mr Manns deep pockets, it'd be bankrupt by now, nevermind 2009.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

Are you purposely trying to confuse people here. What exactly don't you understand about the following;

" Mannkind had $269 million of cash on hand."

" With a burn rate of $100 Mil a Q, this cash will be gone by year end 2008 and no partner in sight."

$100 mil a Q, 3 Q's left in the year is $300 Mil...they only have $269Mil. They will be out of cash BEFORE the end of this year.

What are you talking about?

You keep repeating yourself but don't address the issue I'm raising. They will be out of cash before year end, they aren't even looking for a partner and they have 600 employees to pay, plus all of the expenses associated with this company.

This stock will be at a $1 by year end but for arguments sake, lets use $2.00.

$100 Mil a Q = $400 Mil a year.

Assuming anyone will buy into a PP, that's 200 million shares at $2 to raise the $400 Mil required just to get through 2009.

That takes MNKD's shares to 300 Million, tripling todays numbers.

Now if you use my number of a $1.00 a share, then the total number of outstanding shares hits 500 Million!!



No partner, no FDA approval, no income.

What do you think 300 million shares will be worth.

I say a $1.00 by Dec 2008 and bankrupt in 2009.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

LOL and you're pumping this report on the MNKD Forum on Yahoo!

I see you're not to popular over there.

messages.finance.yahoo...


Hit $2.59 today.....by the time Part VI comes out, MNKD will be at $2.00...lol...good work.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

A pictures worth a thousand words;

139.142.147.19/StockCh...

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part IV)

AW, this is a major issue to MNKD's survival;


" are postponing finding a partner until after all their Phase 3 data is in (at the end of this year) "

" Mannkind had $269 million of cash on hand."

With a burn rate of $100 Mil a Q, this cash will be gone by year end 2008 and no partner in sight.

The FDA will send them back to PIII for a larger trial to counter or disprove PFE's health issues with exubera, including lung cancer. They WILL NOT make the same mistake twice. That will push MNKD into 2011 and with a cash burn of $100M a Q, that will be game, set, match.

The insulin pump comparison is apples to oranges. The pump had technical issues that had to be resolved, not health issues as with inhaling insulin into your lungs.

The success of one product in one area, does not guarantee success in a totally different area. That logic can lose investors a lot of cash, in fact for those that invested in MNKD two years ago, they are well aware of that pain.

I won't say it's impossible but I will say extremely unlikely that any BF will lay out $500 M to $1 Billion to partner with MNKD on a similar product that has already been proven to be a total failure.

In just 2 years, their stock has gone from $22.75 to $2.75 !

My prediction is a $1.00 by Dec 2008.

The writing is on the wall, MNKD is done....investors beware.

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

" Actually, what I quoted from them was that the cash burn rate will drop from its present rate of $100 million per quarter after a few quarters. "

Exactly and that's wrong as I already posted. It will increase for several years, not drop after a few quarters.

From the latest 10Q;


" We expect to make substantial and increasing expenditures and to incur additional operating losses for at least the next several years as we......; "

You stated;

" for a purchaser who buys at the $3 level, he can make quite a nice profit if the shares go up only 2x - 5x, "


Obviously but what will drive it to these great heights. Completing PIII is common knowledge and the stock has dropped significantly. Therefore the completion of PIII will not move it up 2x or 5x's as you project.

Finding a partner to kick in at least $1 Billion into an inhaled insulin product that was pulled by PFE, NOVO and Lilly will be no easy task. In fact I say it will be impossible.



" There is no need to stoop to calling anybody names ...."

When / where did I ever call you a name?

Are you serious?

My posts are all on this page, please show me.

All I'm doing is challenging your report and the facts you posted to support an increase in the share price of MNKD, to the tune of 2x's to 5x's. No need to get so defensive.

My view on MNKD is, the only reason it's still in the $2 plus range is due to all of the institutional support. They are on the hook for 50 million shares so they will support it for as long as they can, while slowly cutting their losses each Q.

Regardless of the technology, the determining factor for it's survival will be convincing Dr's to prescribe it to their patients. Those are the folks in the trenches you need to convince and PFE failed miserably, NOVO and Lilly bailed, so there is no reason to believe that MNKD will be able to convice front line Dr's that T1 is better or safer than exubera. They both go into the lungs and that's the issue. They will not care about any clinical study presented, they will look at their previous experiences logically and pass on it.

Their priority is their patients health, not some product that will make things a little more convenient.


The lung cancer scare was the final nail in the coffin for inhaled insulin. Mr Mann can push all he wants but the clock is ticking and eventually his advisor's will force him to cut his losses.

That is simply the reality of the situation.

Good luck

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

AW,

You stated;

" Mannkind has stated that they plan to find a partner to co-market it with them, ..."


Hmmmm....

MannKind Suspends Insulin Talks
Thursday April 10, 9:56 am ET
MannKind Suspends Partnership Talks for Inhalable Insulin After Pfizer Reports Possible Risk


VALENCIA, Calif. (AP) -- Biotechnology company MannKind Corp. said Thursday that it is suspending partnership discussions for its inhalable insulin drug candidate following Pfizer Inc.'s warning of a potential lung cancer risk for its own inhaled insulin drug


Unless your statement refers to MNKD before April 10th. But then you stated your report was based on current information.

I'm confused.

You also stated;

"a company which is coming out with a significant new drug, "

Insulin is not a new drug, regardless of the fact that it may be injected, inhaled, buccal delivery, pills, etc.

Please post some facts...

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

AW,

" various financings that they have done in the past 25 or so years of their existence, "

From the latest 10Q;

We are a development stage enterprise and have incurred significant losses since our inception in 1991. As of March 31, 2008, we have incurred a cumulative net loss of $1.2 billion.


That's 17 years, not 25 as you stated, that MNKD's been around and it's a net loss of $1.2 Billion.


You also said,

" Mannkind has stated that they project similar cash flow for the next few quarters, after which they expect the cash burn rate to drop. "


From the latest 10Q;


" We expect to make substantial and increasing expenditures and to incur additional operating losses for at least the next several years as we......; "

AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS vs a few quarters, is quite different from your interpretation vs the facts, now isn't it.

A few quarters implies a year at most, yet MNKD clearly states, AT LEAST sereral years.

Hmmm....

I also couldn't find their statement in the 10Q that you apparently quoted;

" after which they expect the cash burn rate to drop. "

Where exactly did you get that? Please provide a link.

You can choose to ignore me but that only puts your credibility further at risk. You twist and exaggerate facts to fit your argument and have been called on them.

It does beg the question though, with this many inaccuracies posted here, just how many are in that little $35 report?


biz.yahoo.com/e/080509...

Mannkind: Overlooked Biotech With Excellent Prospects (Part III)

AW, for a person writing an article and trying to sell it on the internet for $35, you seem awfully misinformed regarding your subject matter.
Your unprofessional responses and inaccurate statements, confirm you are a novice at best, trying to make a quick buck on unsuspecting small investors.

This comment confirms it;

" It doesn't bother me that Al Mann dedicated $1 billion of his own money to Mannkind and it doesn't concern me whether he makes back his money or not. I am simply looking at Mannkind's prospects here and now and judging whether they deserve to be selling for less than $3 a share like they are now, which I have decided they don't. "

HUH?

So your argument is that since its dropped from $14 to under $3 that it won't drop any further, yet you haven't presented a logical argument to support that rationale.

Bizarre.

You prefer to focus on slagging a small biotech as your defense of MNKD?

" I believe that even you will agree that Generex is certainly far away from FDA approval, significantly further than Technosphere Insulin. "

Far from it actually.

Oral Lyn does not EVER enter the lungs. T1 does.

The FDA is well aware of the lung cancer results from PFE and will not allow another inhaled insulin product onto the market without a far larger and longer study than MNKD is currently conducting. They are also well aware of PFE, NOVO and Lilly, 3 very large Pharmas, pulled all of their products off the market, after spending $Billions on them.
The last thing the FDA needs is another failure on their behalf, in protecting the people of the US. The list seems to grow monthly and they will not allow another product onto the market, which is almost identical to one - exubera- that just failed and had many health risks associated with it.

Oral Lyn enters the mouth and is absorbed in the cheeks basically. Nothing ever enters the lungs. The FDA will approve this process far sooner that MNKD's.

" I am claiming, however, that their stock has fallen so far that the risk-reward ratio is quite attractive"

You would never make a statement like that, if you truly understood why it has fallen so sharply.

You criticize GNBT for having so many products in their pipeline and managing all of this with only 25 employees on a $9 Mil Q'ly budget.

That's a compliment if you actually thought it through but it appears you are desperate to slag GNBT and are grasping at straws.

Maybe your focus should be; why does MNKD need 600 Employees with 1 product in PIII and 2 weak products in PI.

Why are they chewing through $100 Mil a Q and rising.

" Author bought MNKD at $2.95 and is considering buying more"


So did you buy more?

It's down 10% since your story hit the net.

Good luck