Joe Public's Comments

Despite Massive Layoffs Nationwide, These 28 Companies Are Hiring

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 12:49:47 -0400

The author states: "Disclosure: The author owns none of the securities in his portfolio". I wonder who owns them, if not him? ;^)

A Natural Gas Centric Strategic Long-Term Comprehensive Energy Policy

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 16:40:21 -0400

One point in your plan seems oddly out of place IF the objective is to drastically reduce dependence on oil in general and gasoline in particular, and that is the recommendation to cease building coal-fired power plants. Your social engineering suggestions also smack more of ideology than of offering a practical solution to a given problem. But then, when people go to your personal website/blog they can see that you are kind of "out there" in some of your political views. You are entitled to your views, of course, but sometimes I think your analysis loses objectivity and utility because of them. If our predicament is as dire as you suggest -- and I tend to agree with you that it is -- then we can't afford the luxury of ruling out the use of coal with pollution-mitigation technologies that exist today.

Paper Companies Gaming the Tax Credit System?

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:28:23 -0400

More evidence, if any was needed, that government should quit trying to pick winners and losers in the economy. Or at the very least, craft laws better.

Disclosure: long IP (< 0.2% of portfolio).

Restaurants: Is a Correction Coming?

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:25:55 -0400

Good article, Chris. But I suspect you are "wary" of BWLD, not "weary" of them.

Schumer Takes on Ticketmaster

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:53:55 -0400

Somewhat off-topic, but reselling of tickets ("scalping") should not be illegal. I buy something (e.g., a ticket) for "x". It's mine. I can do with it what I want: use it, not use it, or sell it to someone else either at a loss or a gain. What's the problem?

Behind the AP's Plan to Become the Web's News Corp

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 01:38:53 -0400

AP is hastening its own extinction.

Best Buy's Online Shopping Freefall

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 16:06:16 -0400

Maybe people accellerated purchases they would have made this spring into January & February due to Circuit City AND due to the February DTV transition? Now that CC is closed, and DTV is put off until June, maybe there's a lull? I don't know, I'm just speculating.

Microsoft to Shut Down Encarta, Can't Compete with Wikipedia

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 17:39:52 -0400

I use Wikipedia a lot myself, but it has its shortcomings. Wikipedia's content is community-edited, and not all of those who create content are experts. Hence, the content can be unreliable, and it is not always apparent where it is unreliable.

Why Isn't McDonald's Targeting the Fish Crowd During Lent?

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 10:53:06 -0400

For what it's worth, MCD also currently has outdoor advertising for the filet-o-fish. There's one such billboard near my house on the interstate. There is no overt Lent theme, however. Maybe they feel that it is better (i.e., safer) not to include religious references in their marketing?

April's Little-Known Bullish Trend

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:47:28 -0400

I would have said that the market reached its nadir on March 9, instead of the "market plummet reaching its zenith", but that's just me. Nitpicky, I know.

How Will Lionsgate Shareholders React to Icahn's Latest Offer?

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:34:26 -0400

I was doing the math to see how 45 jobs could equate to a $20 million annual savings. That would come out to an annual savings of $444,444 per person, which seems kind of high even for the movie industry.

I went back and checked the AP story on this and found that LGF is eliminating 45 positions by letting 27 people go and not filling 18 vacancies, which gives the 8% reduction figure. According to the AP, "combined with a move last year to trim 41 staff positions, the cuts will save $15 million to $20 million a year off corporate overhead of about $135 million." According to the Daily Variety from November 10, the 41 positions consisted of 17 people let go and 24 open positions being deallocated.

So LGF's actual savings is probably around half of the reported range, which would be $9 million (rounded), using the $15-20 million range of savings compared to budget. That's worthwhile, but not as dramatic as the figure initially reported.

Also, I wonder if LGF will rehire any of these people as contractors? That would simply mean that LGF is moving expenses from one bucket to another. I have no knowledge of this, I'm just conjecturing.

Interpreters of Data Should Exercise Care to Get Facts Right

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 17:04:27 -0400

Jeff, you might have missed one when he said "There is no conspiracy here." (from the 4th excerpt you provided) It's an opinion. Many observers have wondered if the government chooses methodology that reports more favorably than is warranted (e.g., CPI).

On your YOY Change in Home Sales chart, it's true in retrospect that the July 2006 and March 2008 data points might have been viewed as indications of stability or the start of a rebound, but in order to see that, one would have needed at least one or two more months of data. Without such perspective, those points simply indicate further decline.

Yahoo Closing Travel Site FareChase, What's Next?

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:53:07 -0400

Yahoo also sold off Yahoo Music Unlimited music-on-demand service to Rhapsody (RealNetworks) last year (October) and outsourced its Yahoo Music site, including the Launchcast "radio" streaming music service, to CBS this past February.

Is Music Moving to the Cloud?

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 18:43:13 -0400

Heyweed and Peter02I make excellent points. All music subscription services so far recognize only the individual person (or sometimes the individual device), but not the couple or the family, as the subscribing unit, making the service pretty expensive for some. This is unlike cable TV, a successful subscription model, which recognizes the household as the unit customer.

Nicholas, the technical problems that you would like to assume have been solved are a significant impediment to more widespread adoption of of cloud music. I understand you want to examine other aspects of the problem, but if the technical issues were magically gone, a lot more people, young and old alike, would be content to get their music from the cloud. The technical issues are are more numerous and are a lot less solved in the real world than you think they are, I believe.

But putting technical issues aside, there are still matters of trust and dependability. It would be stupid to assume that the company you buy your music service from will always be there. We have already seen several music services disappear, Yahoo Music Unlimited for one. If you put a lot of work into your music profile and organization, I guarantee you will be very unhappy when you have to start over from scratch when your old provider goes belly up.

Another factor, which you give some mention to, is the content owner. Going back again to Yahoo Music Unlimited as an example which which I am familiar, users found that record labels would UN-license their content from time to time. Your favorite artist might all of a sudden become unavailable simply because of a contract issue with the label, or simply on the whim of the label.

I think cloud music will continue to grow, but there remain many populations for whom the current business models have little appeal. I also think subscription (rental) music and music ownership will co-exist for quite some time, unless one or the other is made very unattractive by regulation, taxation, etc.

GeoEye: Back on Track?

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:42:43 -0400

I wouldn't call downward revisions of 13 and 15 cents, respectively, to diluted EPS "minor". That said, I agree that the future is what matters.

Washington Post to Fold Business Section, Move Stocks to the Web

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:36:47 -0400

I hate to say it, but I think this move makes sense on the part of the Post. I think business news loses its freshness more than most other categories of news. And it just isn't cost-effective to run multiple pages of yesterday's closing stock & mutual fund prices. If you want that type of presentation, buy the WSJ or the IBD. Or Barrons for the weekly closes.

Yellow Pages Companies: Sinking into Oblivion

Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:10:18 -0400

Draw your own conclusions, Dave. Do you want to mess with stocks trading at 9 cents and 4 cents? It's a total gamble. You could hit it big or go to zero, likely the latter. I don't think there's any in between. Unless you are intimately familiar with either companies' situation, how can you make an intelligent evaluation? Besides, Savitz isn't a securities analyst. He's mostly a reporter.

Obama: Rush to Judgment

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 12:30:54 -0400

In fact, Rush did criticize GWB on his and Paulson's stimulus plan. He ripped him on the Medicare drug bill and on many other areas where Bush parted ways with conservatives. Rush is consistent in his views. Rush wants Obama to fail to convert the US to a socialist society, deeply in hock forever. So do I. If Obama would see the light and adopt a better strategy, I then would wish him (and all of us) to succeed.

Sun CEO's Claim That JavaFX Is the Fastest Growing RIA Platform: Completely Untrue

Sun, 22 Feb 2009 13:15:27 -0500

I think Dan is Right On with this post. When a supposedly leading company feels the need to try to put this much of a happy face on their communications, one wonders whate else they are spinning that we may not pick up on so easily. This speaks to a lack of integrity and/or a situation where management is drinking its own Kool-Aid. Neither is good.

I'll agree with Akiso: choices are good for developers. But what about users? Sun put JavaFX on users' PCs as part of the Java Update process. Where was the choice there? With Flash, you download it if/when you need it the first time, and it is optional. With Silverlight, it is an optional download from Microsoft Update. With JavaFX, it piggybacks on a Java Runtime security update. Sun deserves to be taken to the woodshed on this one. And I submit that Sun is down due to "suboptimal" management decisions over the years.

Netbook Sales: Cannibalizing Notebooks or Incremental?

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:34:20 -0500

Anectodal: Our story is that I bought a netbook for my wife for Christmas. It was an incremental purchase, and I was attracted by the $300 price point. I would NOT have bought a notebook PC. She wanted something small and convenient for web surfing - something smaller than a notebook. I think the notebook is partly a new product category and partly cannibalizes notebooks. Good for Microsoft perhaps, but maybe a wash for chip makers and PC makers.

PC Demand: No Recovery in Sight, Netbooks a Bright Spot

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 10:20:08 -0500

And with Windows 7 coming out at the end of this year, some consumers will delay making PC purchases until then, to avoid having to buy and use Vista. I 'm one of those.

The Importance of Being Earnest in Investment Research

Thu, 15 Jan 2009 15:37:19 -0500

This is an excellent post by Mr. Hill. Thank you. You said a lot in a few words.

This is also a good and gracious reply by Mr. Jacome, who might be a little rough around the edges himself. Nothing wrong with that.

Did Intel Misjudge Success of the Netbook?

Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:09:46 -0500

I agree that not every netbook purchased is a notebook not purchased. Far from it. We bought a netbook for Christmas. At this time, we would not have bought a notebook or other PC if netbooks didn't exist. There would have been some other present under the Christmas tree. The netbook fills a somewhat different need than a larger notebook. We already have a 2 notebooks and 2 desktops in the family. We didn't need another notebook. I'm sure many other consumers view the netbook the same way.

Apple Drops DRM from iTunes Music; What We Really Need Are DRM Free Videos

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:40:44 -0500

Dan, I disagree in part. Maybe for Apple's bottom line, DRM-free in the iTunes store is not a big deal. And maybe it is not a big deal for users who view their purchased music as somewhat expendable. But I know there is a significant number of people who will not buy DRMed music. It's too much hassle to insure that your licenses are properly backed up and that you can transfer your music to other devices you may own in the future. What is the life span of the typical iPod, two or three years? If I buy a music track, I don't want to lose it simply because my old player gets replaced.

I happily buy DRM-free downloads from the Amazon MP3 store and from lala.com. I have never bought a DRMed MP3, and I don't expect to in the future.

The Commoditization of Music

Sun, 04 Jan 2009 02:19:41 -0500

I too spent all of my accumulated points (far fewer than your total) in the last couple of days of the promotion. The promotion worked, as we did buy Pepsi over Coke just to get another point per 2-liter bottle. I had never used the Amazon MP3 store before, and I was generally pleased with the experience. I wish you could buy more than one song at a time. All the downloads I bought were encoded at 256 kbps. I had to convert them to 160 kbps so they would play on my MP3 player.

I can't believe you never bought Dark Side of the Moon on CD. You are one of the few, I think.

I refuse to buy DRMed songs, so I was happy to give Amazon a try. I expect to go back and buy some more songs on my own dime.

As far as buying music from other sources, don't forget eBay and half.ebay.com for used CDs. Also, there is a site called lala.com where you can buy "web access" to songs for 10 cents each, and often whole albums are available for less than $1. "Web access" means that you can log on to the web site and listen to the entire song or album (streamed) as often as you want whenever you want - so long as lala.com stays in business, I guess. To entice you to buy a song, you can listen to the entire song for free once. After that, it's the usual 30 second sample. You can also buy MP3 downloads from them, and there is a CD trading feature as well. I have had a (free) user account on lala for a couple of years for CD trading, but have not yet used the web access feature.

Rick’s: Still Entertaining or Ready to Slide?

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 13:45:29 -0500

To oneslip... I think some people DO have a compulsion. From an investor's perspective, that is one of the attractive traits of a company like Rick's.

(no position in Rick's, but am following the story)

Gift This Book: The Return of Depression Economics, by Paul Krugman

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 00:55:19 -0500

Your use of the word "gift" as a verb makes me cringe. "Give this book...". "It's certain to be one of the most given books this holiday season...". Thank you.

Bill Ackman's Investment Thesis: Wendy's

Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:54:48 -0500

Locally, Wendy's mystifies me. A year or two ago, there was some major problem with the franchisee for the entire metro St. Louis area, and all Wendy's closed in a several county area. I don't know how many stores that was... maybe 50? They are still closed. It seems to me that it would be a priority for Wendy's to reopen in this major market, but nothing seems to be happening. Maybe that says something about Wendy's management, or maybe it doesn't. I don't know, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Fri, 12 Dec 2008 13:26:04 -0500

Not that I was ever tempted to do this, but I won't be taking market timing advice from Harry "it's not going to be a pleasant sight" Reid. As I write this, the S&P is up a point on the day. Bravo to the Senators who just said no to this multi-billion dollar band-aid. But a big Thumbs Down to every single one of them who value their December vacations more highly than continuing to work on this problem. Didn't we rip the Iraqis for taking their August vacation instead of working on their constitution? What's so different here?

Another Bear Market Theme: S&P 500 vs. Consumer Discretionary Sector Strategy

Sat, 22 Nov 2008 11:50:08 -0500

I'm a little confused on this one. On the SPY vs. XLE post, Mr. Stokes speaks of the daily closes, implying that the comparison is to the daily price movement and that the position is subject to daily rebalancing. Here, he speaks of a "Thursday" close. Is that an editing mistake, or is he suggesting a weekly comparison and a weekly rebalancing? I'm assuming the former, but a clarification would be welcome.