Joe Public

Interpreters of Data Should Exercise Care to Get Facts Right

Jeff, you might have missed one when he said "There is no conspiracy here." (from the 4th excerpt you provided) It's an opinion. Many observers have wondered if the government chooses methodology that reports more favorably than is warranted (e.g., CPI).

On your YOY Change in Home Sales chart, it's true in retrospect that the July 2006 and March 2008 data points might have been viewed as indications of stability or the start of a rebound, but in order to see that, one would have needed at least one or two more months of data. Without such perspective, those points simply indicate further decline.