Breadnight's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/210949/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179543-outlook-2010-moving-towards-a-multi-polar-world-order?source=feed#comment-819947 819947 Thu, 24 Dec 2009 00:42:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119424-nacco-industries-worth-another-look?source=feed#comment-381839 381839 Mon, 09 Feb 2009 22:50:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119424-nacco-industries-worth-another-look?source=feed#comment-381836 381836
Anyone know anything more about this, or what percent historical revenues were derived from these operations please let us know.]]> Mon, 09 Feb 2009 22:49:27 -0500
Anyone know anything more about this, or what percent historical revenues were derived from these operations please let us know.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113846-super-tankers-and-super-volatile-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-350547 350547 Fri, 09 Jan 2009 08:56:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113846-super-tankers-and-super-volatile-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-350544 350544
I believe Reggie's summation, which we hinted at, would be to sell into the strength in these shipping companies. Their business models did not include this storage aspect a year ago. It is a plus to them in the short term, but indicates how weak their core business model is currently performing.

If you believe crude prices will continue to collapse (which I do), shorting these crude transporters is a good high beta play. I would recommend a strategy of shorting the shippers that couldn't make money during the boom times, those will be the ones to go under in the future.

The catch: is the recent strength in the shipping co's due to the storage issues due to crude contango, or is it value investors picking the bottom? Why has DRYS seen recent (huge) strength, they don't have crude vessels (that's not a fact, but I'm moderately sure of it)??

-if you're shorting an equity b/c of a flawed fundamental factor, you should make sure the recent strength is due to that factor. In this case I am not sure that is true... Your thoughts??]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 08:54:42 -0500
I believe Reggie's summation, which we hinted at, would be to sell into the strength in these shipping companies. Their business models did not include this storage aspect a year ago. It is a plus to them in the short term, but indicates how weak their core business model is currently performing.

If you believe crude prices will continue to collapse (which I do), shorting these crude transporters is a good high beta play. I would recommend a strategy of shorting the shippers that couldn't make money during the boom times, those will be the ones to go under in the future.

The catch: is the recent strength in the shipping co's due to the storage issues due to crude contango, or is it value investors picking the bottom? Why has DRYS seen recent (huge) strength, they don't have crude vessels (that's not a fact, but I'm moderately sure of it)??

-if you're shorting an equity b/c of a flawed fundamental factor, you should make sure the recent strength is due to that factor. In this case I am not sure that is true... Your thoughts??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91980-how-you-can-invest-in-the-pickens-plan?source=feed#comment-235510 235510
Most of the nat gas power generators in the US today are operating at a loss due to their own demand for the fuel.

If the Pickens plan were to initialize, the best way to invest in it would be nat gas producers like CHK, DVN, UPL, ect...]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 09:11:12 -0400
Most of the nat gas power generators in the US today are operating at a loss due to their own demand for the fuel.

If the Pickens plan were to initialize, the best way to invest in it would be nat gas producers like CHK, DVN, UPL, ect...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90699-a-new-global-market-for-natural-gas?source=feed#comment-233841 233841 Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:09:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90280-u-s-future-in-coal-burns-bright?source=feed#comment-233824 233824 BTU).

The increased demand from China, in my opinion, will not influence US coal supplies/inventories. The two markets are independent enough, I think to have much affect on each other.

When thinking about the China demand (which is/will be huge) you must ask yourself "what type of coal fired boilers are bing built in China today?" Each boiler is built to a specific coal type, quality, moisture, and sulphur content...

Once you find out what coal specs the Chinese boilers are being built for, you can figure out what coal regions will benefit.

BTW, I have made huge coin on JRCC puts, stay away from that one, and any other coal producer that is not making money currently.

Someone needs to help me with the Chinese coal fired power plants/boiler research... any takers??]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 08:53:34 -0400 BTU).

The increased demand from China, in my opinion, will not influence US coal supplies/inventories. The two markets are independent enough, I think to have much affect on each other.

When thinking about the China demand (which is/will be huge) you must ask yourself "what type of coal fired boilers are bing built in China today?" Each boiler is built to a specific coal type, quality, moisture, and sulphur content...

Once you find out what coal specs the Chinese boilers are being built for, you can figure out what coal regions will benefit.

BTW, I have made huge coin on JRCC puts, stay away from that one, and any other coal producer that is not making money currently.

Someone needs to help me with the Chinese coal fired power plants/boiler research... any takers??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88095-first-solar-spreads-some-sunshine?source=feed#comment-221429 221429
Tell me please how solar is better than wind turbines?? I think both are flawed. The real winner in China is coal. They are building approx 1 coal fired power plant per day!! In the next 3 years they will have added the coal fired capacity that exists today in the US -in 5 years time.

The demand for power generation is so great, that peak load producers like wind and solar are out of the question.

Alternative Energy's only hope is that politicians will do anything for a vote -and current popular belief in global warming will keep these in play. ]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 10:06:35 -0400
Tell me please how solar is better than wind turbines?? I think both are flawed. The real winner in China is coal. They are building approx 1 coal fired power plant per day!! In the next 3 years they will have added the coal fired capacity that exists today in the US -in 5 years time.

The demand for power generation is so great, that peak load producers like wind and solar are out of the question.

Alternative Energy's only hope is that politicians will do anything for a vote -and current popular belief in global warming will keep these in play. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88188-bear-market-bounce-check-up-focus-on-solar-and-gold?source=feed#comment-221420 221420
Quit whining and crying!!]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 09:50:56 -0400
Quit whining and crying!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88520-solar-and-cash-the-big-boys-have-an-answer-do-you?source=feed#comment-221037 221037
Even if they were connected by a magical land bridge, the distances are too far and all of the energy is lost in the transport.]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 12:38:56 -0400
Even if they were connected by a magical land bridge, the distances are too far and all of the energy is lost in the transport.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88520-solar-and-cash-the-big-boys-have-an-answer-do-you?source=feed#comment-220853 220853
What happens at night? Or when the wind isn't blowing? You're telling me that you can store the extra energy accumulated during the day to keep our city powered at night?? You're delusional.

Who wants to live in a city that has power outages 50% of the time and is neighbored by a city of solar panels or wind turbines?? Not me, and not your local politician.

These energy sources are used for peak periods. They are not sufficient for base load electricity. Not to mention they make no economic sense as an investment. Just keep that in mind while you play this fad.]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:39:49 -0400
What happens at night? Or when the wind isn't blowing? You're telling me that you can store the extra energy accumulated during the day to keep our city powered at night?? You're delusional.

Who wants to live in a city that has power outages 50% of the time and is neighbored by a city of solar panels or wind turbines?? Not me, and not your local politician.

These energy sources are used for peak periods. They are not sufficient for base load electricity. Not to mention they make no economic sense as an investment. Just keep that in mind while you play this fad.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88555-crude-reality-big-oil-s-purposely-restricting-supply?source=feed#comment-220851 220851
Someone tell me how a wind turbine spinning in the fields will make my Land Cruiser go? Or, how thousands of solar panels in the desert will provide the energy for me to fly home from Australia in a month?? It won't.

People are confusing the argument. YOU CANNOT REPLACE OIL WITH ALTERNATIVE/RENEWABLE ENERGY (at least not today).

Electric energy is not the same as energy used for transportation. They may both be big issues, but they are unrelated. Please keep this in mind.]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:25:41 -0400
Someone tell me how a wind turbine spinning in the fields will make my Land Cruiser go? Or, how thousands of solar panels in the desert will provide the energy for me to fly home from Australia in a month?? It won't.

People are confusing the argument. YOU CANNOT REPLACE OIL WITH ALTERNATIVE/RENEWABLE ENERGY (at least not today).

Electric energy is not the same as energy used for transportation. They may both be big issues, but they are unrelated. Please keep this in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88576-3-investment-ideas-for-the-rest-of-2008-and-2009?source=feed#comment-220850 220850
You cannot replace oil with wind turbines.
You cannot replace oil with solar panels.

Electric energy is not associated with transportation energy (i.e. planes trains and automobiles). ]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:12:50 -0400
You cannot replace oil with wind turbines.
You cannot replace oil with solar panels.

Electric energy is not associated with transportation energy (i.e. planes trains and automobiles). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88585-massey-energy-posts-big-number-but-big-charge-too?source=feed#comment-220849 220849
Once oil bottoms, go long coal, and bet the house. What a lot of people are missing however, is that US coal is rarely related to coal demand in China -which is THE story.

If you want to play in the coal sector, pick companies with diverse asset bases in Australia and Indonesia -thats where China will be getting the extra coal.

Once the fundamentals begin to matter again, and hedge funds incorporate a less sporadic strategy, coal will be a big winner.

]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 04:05:38 -0400
Once oil bottoms, go long coal, and bet the house. What a lot of people are missing however, is that US coal is rarely related to coal demand in China -which is THE story.

If you want to play in the coal sector, pick companies with diverse asset bases in Australia and Indonesia -thats where China will be getting the extra coal.

Once the fundamentals begin to matter again, and hedge funds incorporate a less sporadic strategy, coal will be a big winner.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87130-profiting-from-the-pickens-plan-fan-clean-fuels-fuel-systems?source=feed#comment-215383 215383
1) If everyone plugged in their electric cars, we would have to build A LOT more coal or nuclear powered plants. Since nuclear doesn't seem likely (dumb politicians), and coal is our most abundant resource, we will be burning a lot more coal to fuel those green electric cars.

2) Wind energy is hopeless. Do some research. It would take a wind farm the size of a city to power a city of the same size. Additionally, that city would have lots of power outages when the wind isn't blowing -like 50% of the time.

3) Natural Gas for electricity consumption has been proven to be a bad idea. Once you build the nat gas power plants, you end up jacking up the price of the natural gas you're using b/c of the demand YOU created. A lot of these plants that were built in the 90's are losing money today.

4) Nat gas for transportation will have the same affect. Once you increase the demand for the nat gas, the price will skyrocket and no one will use it.

All of these ideas SOUND good, but they simply wont work. Build a lot of nuclear plants, and increase spending on clean coal technologies b/c COAL is what we will be increasingly using in the near future.]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 04:52:38 -0400
1) If everyone plugged in their electric cars, we would have to build A LOT more coal or nuclear powered plants. Since nuclear doesn't seem likely (dumb politicians), and coal is our most abundant resource, we will be burning a lot more coal to fuel those green electric cars.

2) Wind energy is hopeless. Do some research. It would take a wind farm the size of a city to power a city of the same size. Additionally, that city would have lots of power outages when the wind isn't blowing -like 50% of the time.

3) Natural Gas for electricity consumption has been proven to be a bad idea. Once you build the nat gas power plants, you end up jacking up the price of the natural gas you're using b/c of the demand YOU created. A lot of these plants that were built in the 90's are losing money today.

4) Nat gas for transportation will have the same affect. Once you increase the demand for the nat gas, the price will skyrocket and no one will use it.

All of these ideas SOUND good, but they simply wont work. Build a lot of nuclear plants, and increase spending on clean coal technologies b/c COAL is what we will be increasingly using in the near future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85667-two-water-transport-plays-besides-dryships?source=feed#comment-209629 209629
The dry bulk market will stay strong due to increased iron ore and coal production/demand. The container ind is more prone to the global slowdown.

I recommend listening to some of these conference calls prior to investing in this industry. It is more complicated than most.

There will be a big increase in world wide dry bulk vessels in the coming years. Depending on how many of the shipyards stay in business (due to higher steel costs), and how many of the older vessels need to be retired, the dry bulk indexes could come down dramatically.

There is also potential for a lot of consolidation in this sector. Once the dry bulk stocks begin to move, I say go with DRYS. Their earnings are impressive compared to their peers. DRYS is better known, and has a higher beta. Therefore, I think it will have more momentum and will work better as a trade.

Lots of research necessary here. Good luck.]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:50:47 -0400
The dry bulk market will stay strong due to increased iron ore and coal production/demand. The container ind is more prone to the global slowdown.

I recommend listening to some of these conference calls prior to investing in this industry. It is more complicated than most.

There will be a big increase in world wide dry bulk vessels in the coming years. Depending on how many of the shipyards stay in business (due to higher steel costs), and how many of the older vessels need to be retired, the dry bulk indexes could come down dramatically.

There is also potential for a lot of consolidation in this sector. Once the dry bulk stocks begin to move, I say go with DRYS. Their earnings are impressive compared to their peers. DRYS is better known, and has a higher beta. Therefore, I think it will have more momentum and will work better as a trade.

Lots of research necessary here. Good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83681-bucyrus-international-a-mixed-bag?source=feed#comment-206655 206655
Also, the oil sands are making so much money these days that they arent utilizing draglines -but truck and shovel instead.

I don't know the % of profit from draglines that BUCY gets (and I will do some research) but I believe draglines are what they're known for. I believe that % will come down in the future.]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 05:29:54 -0400
Also, the oil sands are making so much money these days that they arent utilizing draglines -but truck and shovel instead.

I don't know the % of profit from draglines that BUCY gets (and I will do some research) but I believe draglines are what they're known for. I believe that % will come down in the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81419-something-s-brewing-at-oilsands-quest-inc?source=feed#comment-187254 187254
I will look into Connacher O&G, I have never heard of them. I just have my doubts in the in-situ recovery method. I have never seen production data that indicates it to be economical.

Additionally, investors should ALWAYS be suspicious of junior mining/mineral companies not listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange -due to the additional resource/reserve reporting requirements.]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 15:41:37 -0400
I will look into Connacher O&G, I have never heard of them. I just have my doubts in the in-situ recovery method. I have never seen production data that indicates it to be economical.

Additionally, investors should ALWAYS be suspicious of junior mining/mineral companies not listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange -due to the additional resource/reserve reporting requirements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81419-something-s-brewing-at-oilsands-quest-inc?source=feed#comment-187144 187144
I know that the in-situ recovery method is in use today, but I don't think it is a major precentage of any oil sands operation. Instead, it is viewed as a new technology that will eventually be needed, but not for some time. Therefore, it is in use only for research and development purposes.

If anyone has some numbers and links to an oil sands operation that is actually using this method -for profit, please provide. If any productivity data is available, that would be great too.

]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 12:54:31 -0400
I know that the in-situ recovery method is in use today, but I don't think it is a major precentage of any oil sands operation. Instead, it is viewed as a new technology that will eventually be needed, but not for some time. Therefore, it is in use only for research and development purposes.

If anyone has some numbers and links to an oil sands operation that is actually using this method -for profit, please provide. If any productivity data is available, that would be great too.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81419-something-s-brewing-at-oilsands-quest-inc?source=feed#comment-186160 186160
If you're looking for a pure momentum trade, best of luck. But, if you're looking for a good investment in an oil sands play, pick a company an hour west of this one -that is already mining bitumen at a 1:1 strip ratio.

If someone has some insight to my first 2 questions, please provide... I have been wondering this for some time.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:48:39 -0400
If you're looking for a pure momentum trade, best of luck. But, if you're looking for a good investment in an oil sands play, pick a company an hour west of this one -that is already mining bitumen at a 1:1 strip ratio.

If someone has some insight to my first 2 questions, please provide... I have been wondering this for some time.]]>