kebu77

Corporate America Is Inadvertently Helping Obama

Notes on the 13 Keys - -

1. They predict a popular vote "win" - - not the deciding electoral vote count. This time around, so many keys are flipped, that a "split decision" like 2000 is a black swan.

2. The model is very robust, surviving civil war, world wars, and the depression. The EEO identity of a candidate is such a small blip (Bradley effect to the contrary notwithstanding) as to be irrelevant (model makers would probably say, the dynamic of the keys has already discounted for this, e.g., the protracted primary season).

3. The model is based on a political system that is based on our Constitution and the "meme" of economic growth that have co-existed since the founding. Theoretically the model could be upset on one of three ways - -

a. Most improbable, a radical change in the 148-yr old two-party system, without a radical change in the Constitution or economy;

b. Less improbable, but still unlikely, by constitutional amendment, such as elimination of the "natural-born citizen" requirement or repeal of two-term limit.

c. Possible: An energy crash drives a prolonged period of economic contraction, giving the two keys based on economic conditions a new interpretation... If the peakists are right, 2012 may be the last election we can play this parlor trick. ;-(