kebu77

A New Economic Indicator?

A possible explanation is the adverse impact of unemployment on men. Women now make up half the employed workforce, not due to their expanding numbers but because far more men have lost jobs in the recession - - construction, manufacturing, finance vs. health care and education.

Would a lot of unemployed women with time on their hands go out and buy guns and ammo? Men are out there compensating for loss of status and identity.

This is a simpler answer than politics or some other second derivitave explanation. Obama is clearly no threat to the gun lobby and crime is falling or flat.

Warren Buffett's Bet on Rail and America

And you double the efficiency if you go to electric rail. Coal-fired electric rail is really green compared with diesel over-the road trucking.

Forecaster Gerald Celente: 'There Is No Economic Recovery'

chris coonan said, "a major earthquake hits California, or worse, it will be the end of the economy as we know it, even as bad as it already is."

Another San Francisco earthquake or another Katrina are white swan events.

While you're at it, at least you could pick a black swan event, like a large portion of the Canary Islands Cumbre Vieja volcano, above the water line, breaking loose during the next eruption and causing a sunami that floods the entire east coast of the U.S. 10 miles inland. Forty million people evacuate in eight hours (if we get the news timely) or die trying (more likely). Game over, end of empire. We can hope the computer guys were backing up our data someplace high and dry...

But wait... if you can identify it as a possibility, does it then turn white...

If the Middle Class Crumbles What Happens to Political Stability?

An economy is only as strong at available energy at an acceptable cost grows to support it (supplemented of course by technology improvements that promote energy efficiency).

The great expansion of the US middle class from 1945 to 1973 corresponds with a DOUBLING of US oil consumption every 10 years (while population was increasing 20%/decade). During this period of really cheap oil, the ratio of oil recovered to the energy invested to recover it (EROEI) was really high - - around 100:1.

With the '70s oil crises, oil consumption flattened, as did incomes. Per capita oil consumption peaked and began to gradually decline in the '80s to present, and overall oil consumption peaked earlier in this decade. EROEI has been falling during this period as the world has had to resort increasingly to deep water, polar, heavy oil, ultra deep water, and oil sands to increase supply. Average EROEI now is running at under 20:1 and falling.

Pretty soon, the cost of recovering energy supplies (including coal and natural gas) will increase to the point where this (as of now) hidden tax on the economy will exceed efficiency gains. Then, avoiding energy waste via conservation is the last step before real declines in the overall standard of living occur.

The above is, of course, a tad oversimplified, but to make the point: The middle class is in jeopardy for real, secular-trend resource reasons having nothing to do with economic cycles or political matters.

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

MSimon. your reply tells me you might be one of Julian's offspring...

I'm talking oil flows, not oil in the ground. There's a lot of oil in the ground, more than we've taken out in 150 years. The trick is, the accessible cheap oil has all been found and most of it has been pumped. The percentage of energy used to get energy is rapidly rising. So, while the price of oil has tripled, total world production has basically flat-lined at 2005 levels (now actually down, but due to demand destruction). Economists say if you want to get more of something, raise the asking price. So what gives?

"Mistakes were made" is not a plan for the future. Just think about the next few years, not 20 or 30. Whatever Mexico does to reform its energy sector, won't help in the next five years, during which it will probably become a net importer (unless its ecomony and internal oil consumption crash).

Hope is not a plan. Yes, EEStor is likely a scam (or at least not much of an improvement). Polywell stays alive cuz the Navy is covering its bets - - were Polywell to prove out, it'd be a really great carrier-driver.


On Sep 30 11:43 AM MSimon wrote:

> The US could supply its oil needs from oil shale for the next century
> if the government got out of the way. Not to mention Alaska and off
> shore.
>
> EEStor is a scam IMO. The jury is still out on Polywell.
>
> The greens have done a LOT to cripple the US. Can it be turned around
> - depends on who controls Congress and if the current President wants
> to be re-elected.
>
> Most of our wounds are self inflicted.

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

US oil production peaked almost 40 years ago and, with the exception of minor, temporary upward blips, has been in decline ever since. No amount of "drill, baby, drill" will ever reverse this trend. The decline will be lessened by tertiary recovery from existing wells, but will never be reversed.

Canada will need some of its declining and increasingly expensive oil for itself.

Mexico's overall production is declining at roughly 8-9% a year, and its exports are declining at 20% a year, or more than that net, since it re-imports considerable oil as refined products (ironically, during the high gas price period last year when Mexico was selling gas for less than cost of re-imported refined gas from the US, San Diego gas customers could cross the border and get cheap
Tiajuana gas).

About three years ago, Jeffrey Brown (westexas on the oil drum) began talking about how oil exporting countries (e.g., US and Indonesia at an earlier time, UK, Venezuela, Mexico) continued to increase their internal consumption even as their exports decline down to zero and they become importers. Google: "Export Land Model"

Economies are based on energy. Notwithstanding climate issues, the US will move to a lower-carbon, lower-energy economy. The only issue is whether this happens voluntarily within societal mechanisms or is imposed upon us by reality.

We can do nothing and rely on magic bullets, like Polywell or EEStor, to save us. Are you feeling lucky?


On Sep 30 09:53 AM MSimon wrote:

> America gets most of its oil from:
>
> America
> Canada
> Mexico

Japan: Possible Culprit to Drive U.S. Interest Rates Higher

Correctamundo!

Without a deadline - when the Japanese behavoirs will occur, the article is unhelpful. Descriptive, not predictive.


On Sep 28 11:28 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I follow the author's logic, but how far down the road are we talking?
> To me, it sounds like this would be a fairly slowly evolving problem.

Initial Unemployment Claims Drop Again

If your chart were normalized for the size of the workforce, the impact of the current recession on claims would be shown to be less than both the '74 and '82 recessions. Our labor force has increased faster than population growth since '74 (when the oldest boomer was 28), mainly due to increases of women working outside the home.

Btw, due to higher UE rates among men, women may make it to 50% of the workforce by the end of the year. Good news, women have jobs; bad news, men have beer and guns...

Jobless Claims Fall to the Lowest Level in 34 Weeks

Claims have fallen for 18 of the 24 weeks since the peak and are now running at 16% below their peak, about a third the way down from the pre-recession level...

Are We Destined to Repeat the Mistakes of 1937?

Don't we have 5 or 6 years to go until we get to the point where we can repeat the mistakes of 1937?

Isn't it still 1931?

Book Review: Niall Ferguson's 'The Cash Nexus' Offers Much Needed Perspective

"The biggest decline in [gov't bond] yields since 1700 for the UK was in 1998."

The UK had booming oil exports from the North Sea up to 1999. In 1998 crude dropped to $10 a barrel and the Economist suggested that it might fall to $5. The UK had a strong balance of payments surplus. North sea oil production peaked in 1999.

Both the trade surplus and oil exports went into decline in the early 2000s and the country now is in deficit and imports oil.

Not the whole story of course, but an interesting back drop...

Senator Isakson: Here's Why Extending the Home Buyer Program Is a Big Mistake

"Senator Isakson reports that he has eleven grandchildren. I am sure that he is a loving and proud grandfather. He needs to think of the consequences of his proposed legislation. He is robbing his grandchildren (and everyone else under twenty-five in America today) of their future."

Under his bill, Isakson gets to buy houses for all his children and grandchildren, undoubtedly thru his realty business, plus vacation and rental houses for himself. He may be robbing grandchildren, just not his own...

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

It's worse than that.

Someone up thread mentioned their coastal defenses, conveying the idea that their country is safe from a security threat. The last figure I saw, some time ago, was that their food travels on average about 4,000 miles. They are less than half self-sufficient in food and densely-populated at about 800 people per sq. mi.

Given China's large and growing navy, esp. subs, this would be a classical siege, entirely possible without the US nuclear umbrella.


On Sep 16 01:51 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> You're misunderstanding one thing. Japan has no resources....

Clunkers and Home Buyer Tax Credit: All the Same Thing

Their timing may help clarify the peak of the "W" in the double-dip recession...

Just sayin'

Does the World Have a Peak Oil Problem?

They're talking about this at The Oil Drum - - www.theoildrum.com/nod...
Open Thread for "Peak Oil is 'A Waste of Energy'" NYTimes Article

Many facts and much wisdom in the comments section...