kebu77's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/211083/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/171465-a-new-economic-indicator?source=feed#comment-746664 746664
Would a lot of unemployed women with time on their hands go out and buy guns and ammo? Men are out there compensating for loss of status and identity.

This is a simpler answer than politics or some other second derivitave explanation. Obama is clearly no threat to the gun lobby and crime is falling or flat.]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:05:01 -0500
Would a lot of unemployed women with time on their hands go out and buy guns and ammo? Men are out there compensating for loss of status and identity.

This is a simpler answer than politics or some other second derivitave explanation. Obama is clearly no threat to the gun lobby and crime is falling or flat.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171113-warren-buffett-s-bet-on-rail-and-america?source=feed#comment-744488 744488 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 12:13:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168787-forecaster-gerald-celente-there-is-no-economic-recovery?source=feed#comment-731017 731017
Another San Francisco earthquake or another Katrina are white swan events.

While you're at it, at least you could pick a black swan event, like a large portion of the Canary Islands Cumbre Vieja volcano, above the water line, breaking loose during the next eruption and causing a sunami that floods the entire east coast of the U.S. 10 miles inland. Forty million people evacuate in eight hours (if we get the news timely) or die trying (more likely). Game over, end of empire. We can hope the computer guys were backing up our data someplace high and dry...

But wait... if you can identify it as a possibility, does it then turn white...]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:06:20 -0400
Another San Francisco earthquake or another Katrina are white swan events.

While you're at it, at least you could pick a black swan event, like a large portion of the Canary Islands Cumbre Vieja volcano, above the water line, breaking loose during the next eruption and causing a sunami that floods the entire east coast of the U.S. 10 miles inland. Forty million people evacuate in eight hours (if we get the news timely) or die trying (more likely). Game over, end of empire. We can hope the computer guys were backing up our data someplace high and dry...

But wait... if you can identify it as a possibility, does it then turn white...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167758-if-the-middle-class-crumbles-what-happens-to-political-stability?source=feed#comment-723676 723676
The great expansion of the US middle class from 1945 to 1973 corresponds with a DOUBLING of US oil consumption every 10 years (while population was increasing 20%/decade). During this period of really cheap oil, the ratio of oil recovered to the energy invested to recover it (EROEI) was really high - - around 100:1.

With the '70s oil crises, oil consumption flattened, as did incomes. Per capita oil consumption peaked and began to gradually decline in the '80s to present, and overall oil consumption peaked earlier in this decade. EROEI has been falling during this period as the world has had to resort increasingly to deep water, polar, heavy oil, ultra deep water, and oil sands to increase supply. Average EROEI now is running at under 20:1 and falling.

Pretty soon, the cost of recovering energy supplies (including coal and natural gas) will increase to the point where this (as of now) hidden tax on the economy will exceed efficiency gains. Then, avoiding energy waste via conservation is the last step before real declines in the overall standard of living occur.

The above is, of course, a tad oversimplified, but to make the point: The middle class is in jeopardy for real, secular-trend resource reasons having nothing to do with economic cycles or political matters.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:16:57 -0400
The great expansion of the US middle class from 1945 to 1973 corresponds with a DOUBLING of US oil consumption every 10 years (while population was increasing 20%/decade). During this period of really cheap oil, the ratio of oil recovered to the energy invested to recover it (EROEI) was really high - - around 100:1.

With the '70s oil crises, oil consumption flattened, as did incomes. Per capita oil consumption peaked and began to gradually decline in the '80s to present, and overall oil consumption peaked earlier in this decade. EROEI has been falling during this period as the world has had to resort increasingly to deep water, polar, heavy oil, ultra deep water, and oil sands to increase supply. Average EROEI now is running at under 20:1 and falling.

Pretty soon, the cost of recovering energy supplies (including coal and natural gas) will increase to the point where this (as of now) hidden tax on the economy will exceed efficiency gains. Then, avoiding energy waste via conservation is the last step before real declines in the overall standard of living occur.

The above is, of course, a tad oversimplified, but to make the point: The middle class is in jeopardy for real, secular-trend resource reasons having nothing to do with economic cycles or political matters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163919-marc-faber-equities-safer-than-dollars?source=feed#comment-696966 696966
I'm talking oil flows, not oil in the ground. There's a lot of oil in the ground, more than we've taken out in 150 years. The trick is, the accessible cheap oil has all been found and most of it has been pumped. The percentage of energy used to get energy is rapidly rising. So, while the price of oil has tripled, total world production has basically flat-lined at 2005 levels (now actually down, but due to demand destruction). Economists say if you want to get more of something, raise the asking price. So what gives?

"Mistakes were made" is not a plan for the future. Just think about the next few years, not 20 or 30. Whatever Mexico does to reform its energy sector, won't help in the next five years, during which it will probably become a net importer (unless its ecomony and internal oil consumption crash).

Hope is not a plan. Yes, EEStor is likely a scam (or at least not much of an improvement). Polywell stays alive cuz the Navy is covering its bets - - were Polywell to prove out, it'd be a really great carrier-driver.


On Sep 30 11:43 AM MSimon wrote:

> The US could supply its oil needs from oil shale for the next century
> if the government got out of the way. Not to mention Alaska and off
> shore.
>
> EEStor is a scam IMO. The jury is still out on Polywell.
>
> The greens have done a LOT to cripple the US. Can it be turned around
> - depends on who controls Congress and if the current President wants
> to be re-elected.
>
> Most of our wounds are self inflicted.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:21:15 -0400
I'm talking oil flows, not oil in the ground. There's a lot of oil in the ground, more than we've taken out in 150 years. The trick is, the accessible cheap oil has all been found and most of it has been pumped. The percentage of energy used to get energy is rapidly rising. So, while the price of oil has tripled, total world production has basically flat-lined at 2005 levels (now actually down, but due to demand destruction). Economists say if you want to get more of something, raise the asking price. So what gives?

"Mistakes were made" is not a plan for the future. Just think about the next few years, not 20 or 30. Whatever Mexico does to reform its energy sector, won't help in the next five years, during which it will probably become a net importer (unless its ecomony and internal oil consumption crash).

Hope is not a plan. Yes, EEStor is likely a scam (or at least not much of an improvement). Polywell stays alive cuz the Navy is covering its bets - - were Polywell to prove out, it'd be a really great carrier-driver.


On Sep 30 11:43 AM MSimon wrote:

> The US could supply its oil needs from oil shale for the next century
> if the government got out of the way. Not to mention Alaska and off
> shore.
>
> EEStor is a scam IMO. The jury is still out on Polywell.
>
> The greens have done a LOT to cripple the US. Can it be turned around
> - depends on who controls Congress and if the current President wants
> to be re-elected.
>
> Most of our wounds are self inflicted.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163919-marc-faber-equities-safer-than-dollars?source=feed#comment-696874 696874
Canada will need some of its declining and increasingly expensive oil for itself.

Mexico's overall production is declining at roughly 8-9% a year, and its exports are declining at 20% a year, or more than that net, since it re-imports considerable oil as refined products (ironically, during the high gas price period last year when Mexico was selling gas for less than cost of re-imported refined gas from the US, San Diego gas customers could cross the border and get cheap
Tiajuana gas).

About three years ago, Jeffrey Brown (westexas on the oil drum) began talking about how oil exporting countries (e.g., US and Indonesia at an earlier time, UK, Venezuela, Mexico) continued to increase their internal consumption even as their exports decline down to zero and they become importers. Google: "Export Land Model"

Economies are based on energy. Notwithstanding climate issues, the US will move to a lower-carbon, lower-energy economy. The only issue is whether this happens voluntarily within societal mechanisms or is imposed upon us by reality.

We can do nothing and rely on magic bullets, like Polywell or EEStor, to save us. Are you feeling lucky?


On Sep 30 09:53 AM MSimon wrote:

> America gets most of its oil from:
>
> America
> Canada
> Mexico]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:28:47 -0400
Canada will need some of its declining and increasingly expensive oil for itself.

Mexico's overall production is declining at roughly 8-9% a year, and its exports are declining at 20% a year, or more than that net, since it re-imports considerable oil as refined products (ironically, during the high gas price period last year when Mexico was selling gas for less than cost of re-imported refined gas from the US, San Diego gas customers could cross the border and get cheap
Tiajuana gas).

About three years ago, Jeffrey Brown (westexas on the oil drum) began talking about how oil exporting countries (e.g., US and Indonesia at an earlier time, UK, Venezuela, Mexico) continued to increase their internal consumption even as their exports decline down to zero and they become importers. Google: "Export Land Model"

Economies are based on energy. Notwithstanding climate issues, the US will move to a lower-carbon, lower-energy economy. The only issue is whether this happens voluntarily within societal mechanisms or is imposed upon us by reality.

We can do nothing and rely on magic bullets, like Polywell or EEStor, to save us. Are you feeling lucky?


On Sep 30 09:53 AM MSimon wrote:

> America gets most of its oil from:
>
> America
> Canada
> Mexico]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163639-japan-possible-culprit-to-drive-u-s-interest-rates-higher?source=feed#comment-694110 694110
Without a deadline - when the Japanese behavoirs will occur, the article is unhelpful. Descriptive, not predictive.


On Sep 28 11:28 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I follow the author's logic, but how far down the road are we talking?
> To me, it sounds like this would be a fairly slowly evolving problem.]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:32:20 -0400
Without a deadline - when the Japanese behavoirs will occur, the article is unhelpful. Descriptive, not predictive.


On Sep 28 11:28 AM Old Trader wrote:

> I follow the author's logic, but how far down the road are we talking?
> To me, it sounds like this would be a fairly slowly evolving problem.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163220-initial-unemployment-claims-drop-again?source=feed#comment-689631 689631
Btw, due to higher UE rates among men, women may make it to 50% of the workforce by the end of the year. Good news, women have jobs; bad news, men have beer and guns...]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:45:10 -0400
Btw, due to higher UE rates among men, women may make it to 50% of the workforce by the end of the year. Good news, women have jobs; bad news, men have beer and guns...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163240-jobless-claims-fall-to-the-lowest-level-in-34-weeks?source=feed#comment-689365 689365 Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:26:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163099-are-we-destined-to-repeat-the-mistakes-of-1937?source=feed#comment-689249 689249
Isn't it still 1931?]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:06:37 -0400
Isn't it still 1931?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162455-book-review-niall-ferguson-s-the-cash-nexus-offers-much-needed-perspective?source=feed#comment-685079 685079
The UK had booming oil exports from the North Sea up to 1999. In 1998 crude dropped to $10 a barrel and the Economist suggested that it might fall to $5. The UK had a strong balance of payments surplus. North sea oil production peaked in 1999.

Both the trade surplus and oil exports went into decline in the early 2000s and the country now is in deficit and imports oil.

Not the whole story of course, but an interesting back drop...]]> Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:46:11 -0400
The UK had booming oil exports from the North Sea up to 1999. In 1998 crude dropped to $10 a barrel and the Economist suggested that it might fall to $5. The UK had a strong balance of payments surplus. North sea oil production peaked in 1999.

Both the trade surplus and oil exports went into decline in the early 2000s and the country now is in deficit and imports oil.

Not the whole story of course, but an interesting back drop...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161911-senator-isakson-here-s-why-extending-the-home-buyer-program-is-a-big-mistake?source=feed#comment-680604 680604
Under his bill, Isakson gets to buy houses for all his children and grandchildren, undoubtedly thru his realty business, plus vacation and rental houses for himself. He may be robbing grandchildren, just not his own...]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 10:28:08 -0400
Under his bill, Isakson gets to buy houses for all his children and grandchildren, undoubtedly thru his realty business, plus vacation and rental houses for himself. He may be robbing grandchildren, just not his own...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161815-japan-to-the-u-s-we-don-t-want-to-exclude-you-but?source=feed#comment-679675 679675
Someone up thread mentioned their coastal defenses, conveying the idea that their country is safe from a security threat. The last figure I saw, some time ago, was that their food travels on average about 4,000 miles. They are less than half self-sufficient in food and densely-populated at about 800 people per sq. mi.

Given China's large and growing navy, esp. subs, this would be a classical siege, entirely possible without the US nuclear umbrella.


On Sep 16 01:51 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> You're misunderstanding one thing. Japan has no resources....]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:10:57 -0400
Someone up thread mentioned their coastal defenses, conveying the idea that their country is safe from a security threat. The last figure I saw, some time ago, was that their food travels on average about 4,000 miles. They are less than half self-sufficient in food and densely-populated at about 800 people per sq. mi.

Given China's large and growing navy, esp. subs, this would be a classical siege, entirely possible without the US nuclear umbrella.


On Sep 16 01:51 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> You're misunderstanding one thing. Japan has no resources....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158558-clunkers-and-home-buyer-tax-credit-all-the-same-thing?source=feed#comment-649472 649472
Just sayin']]> Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:06:25 -0400
Just sayin']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158384-does-the-world-have-a-peak-oil-problem?source=feed#comment-647379 647379 www.theoildrum.com/nod...
Open Thread for "Peak Oil is 'A Waste of Energy'" NYTimes Article

Many facts and much wisdom in the comments section...]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:30:46 -0400 www.theoildrum.com/nod...
Open Thread for "Peak Oil is 'A Waste of Energy'" NYTimes Article

Many facts and much wisdom in the comments section...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153353-oil-is-still-the-key-to-u-s-economic-future?source=feed#comment-614876 614876 www.washingtonpost.com...
"If Nuclear Power Has a More Promising Future ... Seth Grae Wants to Be the One Leading the Charge
The president of Northern Virginia-based Thorium Power Ltd. says he has a way to make nuclear energy safer, less expensive and more effective. So why isn't he getting more reaction?"

A brief excerpt shows how nuclear power got derailed from being peaceful and safe - -
"Like some other early reactors, Shippingport ran uneventfully for a few years on thorium-based fuel. But in civilian reactors, thorium was soon eclipsed by uranium. The United States and the Soviet Union, along with a few other countries, had already built vast infrastructures to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, which provided full-blown uranium-based industrial complexes. Also, Cold War powers believed they could muddy the waters of intent by enriching uranium for military purposes and for civilian nuclear energy in the same buildings.
"With thorium in its core, Shippingport became the first U.S. commercial nuclear plant to be decommissioned, in 1982. But by then the whole industry had turned on its head. Nuclear's growth in the United States was already slowing for a mix of economic reasons in the late '70s. In 1979, the near-core meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear station near Harrisburg, Pa., dealt the industry's prospects a body blow by turning public opinion against it.
"And that is where those prospects have mostly stayed...."

It seems that the nuclear industry is now so wedded to uranium that "not invested here" is the biggest threat to a transition to thorium.
]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 12:41:58 -0400 www.washingtonpost.com...
"If Nuclear Power Has a More Promising Future ... Seth Grae Wants to Be the One Leading the Charge
The president of Northern Virginia-based Thorium Power Ltd. says he has a way to make nuclear energy safer, less expensive and more effective. So why isn't he getting more reaction?"

A brief excerpt shows how nuclear power got derailed from being peaceful and safe - -
"Like some other early reactors, Shippingport ran uneventfully for a few years on thorium-based fuel. But in civilian reactors, thorium was soon eclipsed by uranium. The United States and the Soviet Union, along with a few other countries, had already built vast infrastructures to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons, which provided full-blown uranium-based industrial complexes. Also, Cold War powers believed they could muddy the waters of intent by enriching uranium for military purposes and for civilian nuclear energy in the same buildings.
"With thorium in its core, Shippingport became the first U.S. commercial nuclear plant to be decommissioned, in 1982. But by then the whole industry had turned on its head. Nuclear's growth in the United States was already slowing for a mix of economic reasons in the late '70s. In 1979, the near-core meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear station near Harrisburg, Pa., dealt the industry's prospects a body blow by turning public opinion against it.
"And that is where those prospects have mostly stayed...."

It seems that the nuclear industry is now so wedded to uranium that "not invested here" is the biggest threat to a transition to thorium.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152792-will-high-unemployment-prevent-recovery-from-recession?source=feed#comment-610115 610115
High govt deficit, trade deficit, personal debt, corporate debt = flat line economy if not a double-dip recession. No vigorous GDP growth for many years = long-term high UE rate.]]> Fri, 31 Jul 2009 15:16:23 -0400
High govt deficit, trade deficit, personal debt, corporate debt = flat line economy if not a double-dip recession. No vigorous GDP growth for many years = long-term high UE rate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152150-foreclosure-chart-of-the-day?source=feed#comment-607071 607071
What to do if, as in two cases I'm directly aware of, the servicer is a call center across the country that retains a foreclosure law firm in your state?

Bankruptcy law needs to allow cramdowns on primary residences. A bottom-up partial solution. Judges would only allow cramdowns where the person validly qualifies for bankrput adjudication, typically along with the wiping out of a lot of unsecured debt. If this option were in place, the issue of non-meritorious principal and/or interest mods (where the borrower is actually solvent but under water) would not apply. Most of these cases would then be efficiently resolved between servicers and bankruptcy attys in out-of-court settlements.]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:37:30 -0400
What to do if, as in two cases I'm directly aware of, the servicer is a call center across the country that retains a foreclosure law firm in your state?

Bankruptcy law needs to allow cramdowns on primary residences. A bottom-up partial solution. Judges would only allow cramdowns where the person validly qualifies for bankrput adjudication, typically along with the wiping out of a lot of unsecured debt. If this option were in place, the issue of non-meritorious principal and/or interest mods (where the borrower is actually solvent but under water) would not apply. Most of these cases would then be efficiently resolved between servicers and bankruptcy attys in out-of-court settlements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151486-bp-scientist-ethanol-easier-than-biodiesel?source=feed#comment-603833 603833
Good enough for the Iranians, should be good enough for us... ;) But seriously, there is a lot of wasted NG, in the form of stranded gas released during oil recovery, that is flared, but could be converted into methanol via portable plants...]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:59:09 -0400
Good enough for the Iranians, should be good enough for us... ;) But seriously, there is a lot of wasted NG, in the form of stranded gas released during oil recovery, that is flared, but could be converted into methanol via portable plants...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151558-rail-car-count-signals-turnaround-for-coal-producers?source=feed#comment-603791 603791
Always a need to look back when relying on yoy data, esp. when giving significance to only one month.]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 12:33:52 -0400
Always a need to look back when relying on yoy data, esp. when giving significance to only one month.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150010-bank-walkaways-caught-many-by-surprise?source=feed#comment-596995 596995 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:13:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149812-remember-20-oil-looks-like-it-s-coming-back?source=feed#comment-595437 595437 Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:44:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148814-daniel-gross-the-recession-is-over?source=feed#comment-589521 589521 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:52:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148798-transport-reform-never-waste-a-crisis-mentality-fades?source=feed#comment-589393 589393
Trains are incredibly efficient at moving goods. Electric trains even more so. Electricity from coal is far more carbon friendly used in an electric train than is natural gas used to power trucks. Even as people-movers, electric trains are better for short trips than airplanes (again the coal is domestically-produced and cheaper than jet fuel).

Over-developed countries are at risk as world oil production peaks and energy becomes more expensive. We need to save energy in a hurry. See the following for one approach (of many) that could help - - www.theoildrum.com/nod...
"Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads"]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:04:01 -0400
Trains are incredibly efficient at moving goods. Electric trains even more so. Electricity from coal is far more carbon friendly used in an electric train than is natural gas used to power trucks. Even as people-movers, electric trains are better for short trips than airplanes (again the coal is domestically-produced and cheaper than jet fuel).

Over-developed countries are at risk as world oil production peaks and energy becomes more expensive. We need to save energy in a hurry. See the following for one approach (of many) that could help - - www.theoildrum.com/nod...
"Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148707-are-loan-modification-programs-working?source=feed#comment-589334 589334
The missing ingredient that would drive effective loan mods is the lack of recourse to bankruptcy for home buyers who live in their own homes.

Bottom-up loan mods obtained case-by-case, mainly via pre- and post-bankruptcy filing negotiated settlements, are better than top-down government-driven schemes that exclude folks who would be included with good underwriting and include folks that good underwriting would exclude.]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 13:25:50 -0400
The missing ingredient that would drive effective loan mods is the lack of recourse to bankruptcy for home buyers who live in their own homes.

Bottom-up loan mods obtained case-by-case, mainly via pre- and post-bankruptcy filing negotiated settlements, are better than top-down government-driven schemes that exclude folks who would be included with good underwriting and include folks that good underwriting would exclude.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148814-daniel-gross-the-recession-is-over?source=feed#comment-589271 589271 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:57:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148844-american-enterprise-institute-and-consumer-financial-protection?source=feed#comment-589219 589219
Is the corruption so rampant that only a jubilee can fix it?]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:27:03 -0400
Is the corruption so rampant that only a jubilee can fix it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148877-what-do-inventories-mean-for-the-economic-outlook?source=feed#comment-589192 589192 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 12:13:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148505-boomers-in-trouble-the-unheralded-economic-mega-trend-part-1?source=feed#comment-587981 587981 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 15:13:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148604-truck-tonnage-more-evidence-of-rising-pressure-on-transport-sector?source=feed#comment-587737 587737 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 13:16:32 -0400