kebu77

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

The wild cards are Iraq and Nigeria, esp. Nigeria, which has potential to increase production substantially (quickly) and still be under its Opec quota, if it can begin to solve its political problems... KSA could (briefly) allow the resulting increased world production to continue for a while to cause Iran some pain. Collateral benefits, in addition to world stimulus, would be the incentive for Chavez to do a reality test and for Mexico to be further motivated to allow private sector participation in its now rapidly falling oil production. No predictions, only a reminder that geopolitics is always there lurking in the background...

From Subprime to Meltdown: Is Peak Oil Responsible?

Lionel - -

Peak oil is a theory - - like relativity and evolution - - in the scientific sense of "the consensus of informed opinion." For your masters thesis, you need to go that extra step and write on the additional issue of declining net oil exports - - what Jeffrey Brown calls the Export Land Model.

Peak oil is about flows (current production) not resources (oil in the ground that can be develped for production under current economic conditions) and ELM is about flows available (from "export land") to be imported (by "import land"). The model says that, typically, exporting countries continue to increase their internal consumption even while they reduce their exports. The WSJ recently reported that world oil exports have declined in 2006 and 2007, and look to do so in 2008 (the Saudi oil production burst this summer notwithstanding).

This happened in the US even before the US peaked in 1970. The North Sea peaked in 1999 and UK exports then declined to -0- (happening about now). Mexico peaked in 2004 and their exports are now crashing. It looks like this is just beginning to happen for Russia.

So for all you investors out there, look to ELM as your leading indicator on what is to come... As for peak oil being "the cause" of the financial crisis, of course not. But it has been a contributing factor (along with the rising price of other commodities), as has the drain caused by needlessly exporting organized violence in the main oil producing region of the world.

Charlie Maxwell to Barron's: $300 Oil is Inevitable

$300 oil is quoted as $250 in current dollars - - isn't it a little optimistic to assume that in the next 7 years, inflation will be kept to 20%? Assume some fall in the dollar over the period, and a little more price inflation, $300 is just not that hard to believe.

The WSJ recently reported that world oil exports declined in 2006 and 2007. It that trend continues, $300 may be cheap, air travel will be severely reduced and poor folks everywhere will be in a world of hurt.

'Pickens Plan' Comes in the Nick of Time

You really have to check out Alan Drake's electrified rail proposal at www.theoildrum.com/nod... . Only rail-based transport (including trolleys and light rail) is efficient enough to allow coal to be continued to be used while still reducing overall CO2 emissions. Electric rail is almost 20:1 more efficient that diesel trucks for moving goods.