squark62

Which Way Market?

independent of head & shoulders, most indicators i watch point down. for one, the RSI of the S&P is around 43. second, SSO is over-leveraged compared to SDS. there needs to be more equilibration to bring the rates of change of these 2 ETF in line with each other. that equilibration took place from mar-9 to 6-16-09 and significantly overshoot to the upside in my opinion. i think there's longer way to go down that people realize before we would reach a meaningful bottom in the S&P 500.

Weekly ETF Rewind: Correction Should Have More to Go

agreed that the S&P 500 index is headed down and could have a ways to go before it establishing a new meaningful bottom.

Oh, So Now There Are No Green Shoots?

there's been lots of good comments here already, but i have to side with roger on where the market may be going before it gets better. some analysis i do has indicated the S&P 500 has gotten far more out of balance than where we were at the index lows of 666 this past march relative the top around 950 or so. the time rate at which it will take to get back to equilibrium is unknown. however, there's a very strong likely hood we will overshoot again to the down-side when it comes. that means to me the march lows in the S&P are in jeopardy of being taken out later this year, perhaps around the same time in october as last year.

Buying SDS to Hedge the Downside

from a pure technical perspective, the "vector" has been pointing down for the last 8 consecutive trading days despite the apparent sideways motion of the S&P 500. sellers have been in control of the market particularly in the last hour trading. might be prudent to buy SDS on any market rallies for the next few weeks. that's if there are any market rallies.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

the snoop doogy dawg animation was clever! fits the market tone perfectly.

Rumor has it Morgan Stanley (MS) will begin repaying its $10B in TARP money tomorrow, at which time it says it will cease issuing FDIC-backed debt. In an interesting note today, analyst Dick Bove notes banks paying off TARP in Q2 will incur hefty charges; by his calculations MS will pay $1.00/share.

hmmm....hefty charges huh......probably true but their gona do some hefty sellin to pay those hefty charges.

PIMCO's Mohamed El-Erian says beware of the "business as usual" mindset: "The next few quarters will be dominated by the aftershocks... We are facing a world of lower growth and accelerated country realignments."

in other words, El-Erian is saying to U.S. will have less elbow room to maneuver and influence global economics. this means higher U.S. currency inflation is all but inevitable.

Financial Regulation: Too Much Consensus May Pull All Its Teeth

fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your view of the legislation, consensus is the way government works. in may respects, politics is put on the back burner for the greater good. sure, there could be 'better' ways to govern a particular set of issues. but more times than not, nobody wins except politicians when there is grid lock on capital hill.

FAS and FAZ: A Short-Seller's Dream?

flummoxed could be your new middle name if you fool around with FAS & FAZ with no protection. trojans won't keep you from contracting your middle name either.

Will Rising Oil Prices Prevent a Recovery?

>Will Rising Oil Prices Prevent a Recovery?

probably, but not by itself. we're following nearly the exact same trading pattern as in 2008. as the market starts to go down, the price of oil (& other commodities) will continue it's price trajectory upward.

Investors deluge the SEC with letters supporting the return of the uptick rule. The SEC's proposals to curb short sales are open for comment until June 19.

where was the deluge between mar-09 and now that certain big banks got approval to pay their TARP back????

Goldman says the euro will continue to gain on the dollar as risk tolerance returns to the markets. Firm thinks the timing's right to go long euro/short dollar.

whatever recommendations GS makes in today's market and you believe there's a play, do the opposite.

10 of 19 large banks have been given the go-ahead to repay $68B in TARP loans, Treasury's Geithner says. JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) appear to be among those approved, along with AXP, BNY, BBT, COF, STT, USB and NTRS. Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) likely not.

yulp...get ready for the great sucking sound!!!

On Jun 09 10:28 AM CPAtrader wrote:

> What a scam this has been. Now that the market has been severely
> over-purchased OF COURSE it will be simple for these banks to sell
> stock in order to raise the capital to re-pay these tarp funds.

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

kim is basically right in the article you referred to in my opinion. it will also be more clear what the big banks are going when they report Q1 earnings. it's very likely they will have very weak top-side earnings derived from normal banking operations. be skeptical of a rosy outlook picture (if they give any at all) which will be in stark contrast to normal measures of economic growth.


On Jun 06 11:21 AM HardToLove wrote:

> I like you thesis. But when "extraordinary forces" may be in play,
> we have to be especially suspect of technical indicators. The best
> summation of what I think may be going on is detailed in this seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
> from J.S. Kim.
>
> HardToLove

Exponentially Curb Your Enthusiasm

i agree with your premise & conclusion. generally what you posit is correct. the only thing i can think of at the moment to discount your rational position is that very few people are in control of the market right now. so we're in a golden rule - who has the gold makes the rules - kind of market. these few institutions are sitting a pile of cash given by uncle sam to boost the economy. i'm inclined to be pessimistic and say that instead of making money by using the funds to lend, they are controlling the market to make their gains. who has more many to stop them from doing so? hedge funds? sovereign equity? these institutions know exactly what they are doing.