Macro Monitor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/211371/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/92352-where-will-the-markets-go-from-here?source=feed#comment-238723 238723 HeberWho? I'm sorry you feel that way, though I find it entertaining that you took that time to post such a comment.

Cheers]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 15:10:54 -0400 HeberWho? I'm sorry you feel that way, though I find it entertaining that you took that time to post such a comment.

Cheers]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87369-if-commodities-falter-export-reliant-currencies-could-follow?source=feed#comment-216869 216869
naplsguy - I find it entertaining that you took the effort to make that post.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:03:19 -0400
naplsguy - I find it entertaining that you took the effort to make that post.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-209190 209190 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 23:19:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85180-applauding-the-fed-s-gse-action?source=feed#comment-208701 208701 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:38:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85431-offshore-drilling-isn-t-the-answer-supply-and-demand-is?source=feed#comment-208674 208674
It seems that most criticism comes from my comment that, ‘opening up the artic wildlife refuge will do little to ameliorate prices.’ My reasoning stems from the fact that there are already 68 million acres currently leased offshore that contain an estimated ~70% of our oil reserves. I am not opposed to deep sea drilling in the least; in fact, the future anticipation of increased oil production can influence prices today. So, from a short-run perspective, the answer is not to open the Artic Wildlife Refuge, but to engage in contracts in the 68 million acres already leased.

From initial conception through project completion, offshore drilling rigs take years before becoming operational. An offshore jackup rig, for example, will take approximately 3-4 years before becoming operational. Construct a semi-rig, and you’re in the ball-park of 5 years. But these numbers only include construction times -- there are many other necessary steps (feasibility studies, environmental regulations, etc) that add significant time to these estimates. More information can be found here: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a.... How will this help reduce demand or increase supply in the short run?

In the end, oil prices will ease when demand subsides. Eventually, as ‘Mathman Prophecy’ posted, people will spur demand destruction. This is best accompanied by maximized oil production, and significant investment in alternative energies. The profit motive will accomplish this.


PS – I strongly disagree that speculation plays a key role in the price of oil. I commented on this here: davews.blogspot.com/20....

PPS – Correction (per Investor612): President Bush, not McCain wants to open the ANWR to drilling.]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:24:00 -0400
It seems that most criticism comes from my comment that, ‘opening up the artic wildlife refuge will do little to ameliorate prices.’ My reasoning stems from the fact that there are already 68 million acres currently leased offshore that contain an estimated ~70% of our oil reserves. I am not opposed to deep sea drilling in the least; in fact, the future anticipation of increased oil production can influence prices today. So, from a short-run perspective, the answer is not to open the Artic Wildlife Refuge, but to engage in contracts in the 68 million acres already leased.

From initial conception through project completion, offshore drilling rigs take years before becoming operational. An offshore jackup rig, for example, will take approximately 3-4 years before becoming operational. Construct a semi-rig, and you’re in the ball-park of 5 years. But these numbers only include construction times -- there are many other necessary steps (feasibility studies, environmental regulations, etc) that add significant time to these estimates. More information can be found here: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/a.... How will this help reduce demand or increase supply in the short run?

In the end, oil prices will ease when demand subsides. Eventually, as ‘Mathman Prophecy’ posted, people will spur demand destruction. This is best accompanied by maximized oil production, and significant investment in alternative energies. The profit motive will accomplish this.


PS – I strongly disagree that speculation plays a key role in the price of oil. I commented on this here: davews.blogspot.com/20....

PPS – Correction (per Investor612): President Bush, not McCain wants to open the ANWR to drilling.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84519-good-time-to-buy-chinese-currency-follow-the-hot-money?source=feed#comment-204607 204607 rlirph – That’s a very interesting point, and one that amazes me. China can certainly use a more open / complex financial system. Just look at Chinese firms who wither produce or consume commodities. Can you image being a ‘smaller’ firm not being able to hedge against commodity inflation, or being able to lock in profits??
pldragon - thanks for the comment.
]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 17:16:04 -0400 rlirph – That’s a very interesting point, and one that amazes me. China can certainly use a more open / complex financial system. Just look at Chinese firms who wither produce or consume commodities. Can you image being a ‘smaller’ firm not being able to hedge against commodity inflation, or being able to lock in profits??
pldragon - thanks for the comment.
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