Rokjok777's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/211411/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175060-another-crisis-looms-right-around-the-corner?source=feed#comment-777657 777657 I now live in Australia, with a tax rate of 48%. In return I get excellent health care for practically no fee (house calls! they pay for a taxi back to your house!); college tuition at excellent schools costs me $1000 per year; my employer is required by law to put 11% of my income into my own segregated self-directed retirement fund. After five years of employment they are required to offer a paid five-month sabbatical. Don't get me started about the number of paid holidays....Oh, and GDP per capita is about the same as the US.

So the rates may look comparable...but what do you get for your money? Oh, I forgot, in the US you get the pleasure of knowing your tax dollars went to kill a bunch of goat herders on the other side of the world. 37% of tax receipts go to the Pentagon, wake up folks.


On Nov 25 11:27 AM ACCOUNTANT wrote:

> For the most part - what garbage!!!
>
> However, great comment by verdae. There is so much disinformation
> running around that it is actually very nice to read a comment from
> someone that has actually done their homework on what they post.
>
>
> just saw a thing in USA Today regarding tax rates. US is at bottom
> of developed world. We could raise taxes by 5% of GDP and still be
> lower than the vast majority of developed world. In fact, federal
> revenues in 2009 are estimated at 15.1% of GDP, or 5% below the average
> for the years 1970-2000. That is the biggest reason for the huge
> deficit - revenues have just totally dropped off the table.
>
> Combine that with TARP spending and stimulus spending, you have your
> budget deficit. The last two will go away by themselves, and the
> first will need to be addressed. What most people don't realize is
> that the biggest items of Bush's tax cuts were back-ended so they
> wouldn't look so expensive when the 10-year analysis were done back
> in 2001. those back-ended provisions started going into effect in
> 2008.
>
> To illustrate, in 2010, my wife and i could have (in our particular
> circumstances) a non-earned income of about $102,000 and not pay
> one nickel of federal taxes - in my opinion, that is ridiculous.
>
>
> How is this possible? Well, non-earned income implies NO payroll
> taxes. No income taxes will apply because of standard deduction,
> 2 exemptions, HSA deduction, $10,000 passive activity loss carryover,
> and $67,000 of qualifying dividend income or long-term capital gain
> income, which is only taxable if your marginal tax rate is 25% or
> higher. Based on this scenario, we would be just below that tax rate
> - thus - no taxes on that $67,000, and the various deductions above
> will cover the rest of the income. Thus - no taxes on $102,000 of
> income - great for me but sheer public policy stupidity!!!!!
>
> Tax rates will not go back to 70% or 90% or anything close - look
> for a top rate of between 39% and 43%.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:50:26 -0500 I now live in Australia, with a tax rate of 48%. In return I get excellent health care for practically no fee (house calls! they pay for a taxi back to your house!); college tuition at excellent schools costs me $1000 per year; my employer is required by law to put 11% of my income into my own segregated self-directed retirement fund. After five years of employment they are required to offer a paid five-month sabbatical. Don't get me started about the number of paid holidays....Oh, and GDP per capita is about the same as the US.

So the rates may look comparable...but what do you get for your money? Oh, I forgot, in the US you get the pleasure of knowing your tax dollars went to kill a bunch of goat herders on the other side of the world. 37% of tax receipts go to the Pentagon, wake up folks.


On Nov 25 11:27 AM ACCOUNTANT wrote:

> For the most part - what garbage!!!
>
> However, great comment by verdae. There is so much disinformation
> running around that it is actually very nice to read a comment from
> someone that has actually done their homework on what they post.
>
>
> just saw a thing in USA Today regarding tax rates. US is at bottom
> of developed world. We could raise taxes by 5% of GDP and still be
> lower than the vast majority of developed world. In fact, federal
> revenues in 2009 are estimated at 15.1% of GDP, or 5% below the average
> for the years 1970-2000. That is the biggest reason for the huge
> deficit - revenues have just totally dropped off the table.
>
> Combine that with TARP spending and stimulus spending, you have your
> budget deficit. The last two will go away by themselves, and the
> first will need to be addressed. What most people don't realize is
> that the biggest items of Bush's tax cuts were back-ended so they
> wouldn't look so expensive when the 10-year analysis were done back
> in 2001. those back-ended provisions started going into effect in
> 2008.
>
> To illustrate, in 2010, my wife and i could have (in our particular
> circumstances) a non-earned income of about $102,000 and not pay
> one nickel of federal taxes - in my opinion, that is ridiculous.
>
>
> How is this possible? Well, non-earned income implies NO payroll
> taxes. No income taxes will apply because of standard deduction,
> 2 exemptions, HSA deduction, $10,000 passive activity loss carryover,
> and $67,000 of qualifying dividend income or long-term capital gain
> income, which is only taxable if your marginal tax rate is 25% or
> higher. Based on this scenario, we would be just below that tax rate
> - thus - no taxes on that $67,000, and the various deductions above
> will cover the rest of the income. Thus - no taxes on $102,000 of
> income - great for me but sheer public policy stupidity!!!!!
>
> Tax rates will not go back to 70% or 90% or anything close - look
> for a top rate of between 39% and 43%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175002-high-gold-prices-it-s-the-oil-stupid?source=feed#comment-775715 775715 Give Jimmy Carter a little credit. He faced up to the issue and applied a windfall profits tax of 1 1/2% of oil company profits for one year. That established a fund that lasted for years and delivered energy conservation projects that are still saving energy today.
If Obama really did stand for something new, he would have taken 1/50th of the defense budget (soon to exceed $1 trillion annually) and funneled it straight to conservation projects. Instead, America gets to pay for troops and bases in >100 countries, 50,000 men in Germany, 40,000 in Japan, $1 million per year buys one soldier to shoot goat herders in Afghanistan. THAT's the other elephant in the room. In WWII, General Motors retooled in about 6 weeks to stop making cars and start making Jeeps. This is no different: it's economic war!
Rethink Perpetual War and rethink Big Oil and we'd have plenty of money for all of our other problems.]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:54:10 -0500 Give Jimmy Carter a little credit. He faced up to the issue and applied a windfall profits tax of 1 1/2% of oil company profits for one year. That established a fund that lasted for years and delivered energy conservation projects that are still saving energy today.
If Obama really did stand for something new, he would have taken 1/50th of the defense budget (soon to exceed $1 trillion annually) and funneled it straight to conservation projects. Instead, America gets to pay for troops and bases in >100 countries, 50,000 men in Germany, 40,000 in Japan, $1 million per year buys one soldier to shoot goat herders in Afghanistan. THAT's the other elephant in the room. In WWII, General Motors retooled in about 6 weeks to stop making cars and start making Jeeps. This is no different: it's economic war!
Rethink Perpetual War and rethink Big Oil and we'd have plenty of money for all of our other problems.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175111-eliot-spitzer-on-how-geithner-was-fleeced-by-wall-street?source=feed#comment-775642 775642 Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:04:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174818-artificial-economy-yes-artificial-inflation-no?source=feed#comment-773784 773784 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:35:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174683-global-markets-in-review-share-prices-too-far-ahead-of-economic-reality?source=feed#comment-772069 772069

On Nov 22 01:36 PM Advill wrote:

> Maybe it´s true but:
>
> Real estate will be depressed in the mid term
> Inflation is around the corner
> Commodities are already higher than economy
> Trillions of TARP money moving around......WHERE DO I INVEST MY MONEY
> ? perhaps is the daily question moving billions each day and my small
> account too!
>
> Rgds]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 14:33:13 -0500

On Nov 22 01:36 PM Advill wrote:

> Maybe it´s true but:
>
> Real estate will be depressed in the mid term
> Inflation is around the corner
> Commodities are already higher than economy
> Trillions of TARP money moving around......WHERE DO I INVEST MY MONEY
> ? perhaps is the daily question moving billions each day and my small
> account too!
>
> Rgds]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174573-the-sec-surrenders-to-the-oil-industry?source=feed#comment-771452 771452 "I have a patent for a perpetual motion machine, want to buy some shares in my company?"
So please don't bore us with dribvel from Saint Ronald, history will show he's the one who started us on the path to our current fiasco: gutless regulators asleep at the switch, fantasy insolvent banks or (now) fantasy oil companies. Tulips, anyone?


On Nov 20 05:29 PM tripleblack wrote:

> As Ronald Reagan so famously said: "Government is not a solution
> to our problem, government is the problem."
>
> Until we start to acknowledge that government is just making things
> worse, and is in all probability involved in much of the idiocy,
> it will keep cycling around and around.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:16:09 -0500 "I have a patent for a perpetual motion machine, want to buy some shares in my company?"
So please don't bore us with dribvel from Saint Ronald, history will show he's the one who started us on the path to our current fiasco: gutless regulators asleep at the switch, fantasy insolvent banks or (now) fantasy oil companies. Tulips, anyone?


On Nov 20 05:29 PM tripleblack wrote:

> As Ronald Reagan so famously said: "Government is not a solution
> to our problem, government is the problem."
>
> Until we start to acknowledge that government is just making things
> worse, and is in all probability involved in much of the idiocy,
> it will keep cycling around and around.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174577-the-oil-casino-sec-heading-for-monte-carlo-part-iii?source=feed#comment-770675 770675 Monte Carlo simulations were widely touted in funds management by quants as a way to model risk, but now are quite discredited. Interesting that we see them heading into the petro-investing world now. So the value of oil majors will become as opaque as the TBTF bank balance sheets....oh great.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:58:48 -0500 Monte Carlo simulations were widely touted in funds management by quants as a way to model risk, but now are quite discredited. Interesting that we see them heading into the petro-investing world now. So the value of oil majors will become as opaque as the TBTF bank balance sheets....oh great.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174590-two-takes-on-the-financial-crisis-too-big-to-fail-by-andrew-ross-sorkin-and-how-markets-fail-by-john-cassidy?source=feed#comment-770611 770611 I was prepared to learn about how a secret Goldman plot somehow informed what happened, in the end though this was not really the case. The problem was quite simple: too much risk-taking, no regulatory oversight (the portrayal of Christopher Cox at SEC is hilarious), and BODs asleep at the switch.
We seem to have learned absolutely nothing and so will repeat, like Groundhog Day. Kind of like Vietnam and Afghanistan...]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 14:07:22 -0500 I was prepared to learn about how a secret Goldman plot somehow informed what happened, in the end though this was not really the case. The problem was quite simple: too much risk-taking, no regulatory oversight (the portrayal of Christopher Cox at SEC is hilarious), and BODs asleep at the switch.
We seem to have learned absolutely nothing and so will repeat, like Groundhog Day. Kind of like Vietnam and Afghanistan...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174286-obama-s-fears-of-a-double-dip-recession-are-nonsense?source=feed#comment-767381 767381

On Nov 19 09:32 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> cde I know what keeps Obama awake at night. Let’s say we spend our
> $2 trillion in stimulus and get a couple of quarters of weak growth.
> Then once the effects of the stimulus wear off, we slip back into
> a deep recession, setting up a classic “W.” Unemployment never does
> stop climbing. This happened to Roosevelt in the thirties. So congress
> passes another $2 trillion reflationary budget. Everybody gets wonderful
> new mass transit upgrades, alternative energy infrastructure, and
> bridges to nowhere. But with $4 trillion in spending packed into
> two years, inflation really takes off. The bond market collapses,
> the dollar tanks big time, gold goes ballistic to $5,000, and silver
> explodes to $50. Ben Bernanke has no choice but to engineer an interest
> rate spike, taking the Fed funds rate up to a Volkeresque 18%. Housing,
> having never recovered, drops by half again. This all happens in
> the 2012 election year. Obama is burned in effigy, a Mormon is elected
> president, and the Republicans, reinvigorated by new leadership,
> retake both houses of congress. We invade Iran. Crude hits $500.
> This is not exactly a low probability scenario. Remember Jimmy Carter?
> This is why junk bond yields are still stubbornly high at 12.5%,
> and credit default swaps live at lofty levels. Are the equity markets
> pricing in this possibility? No chance. The risk of Armageddon is
> still out there. Personally, I give it a one in three chance. Pass
> the Xanax.]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:23:31 -0500

On Nov 19 09:32 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> cde I know what keeps Obama awake at night. Let’s say we spend our
> $2 trillion in stimulus and get a couple of quarters of weak growth.
> Then once the effects of the stimulus wear off, we slip back into
> a deep recession, setting up a classic “W.” Unemployment never does
> stop climbing. This happened to Roosevelt in the thirties. So congress
> passes another $2 trillion reflationary budget. Everybody gets wonderful
> new mass transit upgrades, alternative energy infrastructure, and
> bridges to nowhere. But with $4 trillion in spending packed into
> two years, inflation really takes off. The bond market collapses,
> the dollar tanks big time, gold goes ballistic to $5,000, and silver
> explodes to $50. Ben Bernanke has no choice but to engineer an interest
> rate spike, taking the Fed funds rate up to a Volkeresque 18%. Housing,
> having never recovered, drops by half again. This all happens in
> the 2012 election year. Obama is burned in effigy, a Mormon is elected
> president, and the Republicans, reinvigorated by new leadership,
> retake both houses of congress. We invade Iran. Crude hits $500.
> This is not exactly a low probability scenario. Remember Jimmy Carter?
> This is why junk bond yields are still stubbornly high at 12.5%,
> and credit default swaps live at lofty levels. Are the equity markets
> pricing in this possibility? No chance. The risk of Armageddon is
> still out there. Personally, I give it a one in three chance. Pass
> the Xanax.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173965-google-the-not-so-gentle-giant-steps-into-mobile-apps?source=feed#comment-765198 765198
oooh "don't be evil..."

Just keep track of where everyone goes on the internet...and soon phones too with GPS.

If that's not Orwellian, I don't know what is]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:07:30 -0500
oooh "don't be evil..."

Just keep track of where everyone goes on the internet...and soon phones too with GPS.

If that's not Orwellian, I don't know what is]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174011-ibm-gets-cozy-on-the-sidelines-as-oracle-sun-deal-languishes?source=feed#comment-765183 765183 That has seismic significance for IBM Websphere and several others. Once Attila Ellison gets a hold of Java...the long knives will come out.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:01:11 -0500 That has seismic significance for IBM Websphere and several others. Once Attila Ellison gets a hold of Java...the long knives will come out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173775-australia-what-recession?source=feed#comment-764272 764272

On Nov 17 01:14 PM Go Lakers wrote:

> Well written articile. I'm an Australian who lives in the US and
> next to no one here knows this story. For what is supposedly the
> most savvy investing nation in the world, it's quite amazing that
> Americans are, for the most part, oblivious to an investing success
> story right under their noses.
>
> The 4 Pillars bank policy was a saviour for the Australian economy.
> Without it, and the essential ban on those 4 banks being taken over
> by a foreign bank (thank you the FIRB), our banks would have almost
> certainly been players in the sub-prime asset debacle, they would
> have chased higher returns, they would have been bigger players in
> the US and European markets, they would have fed Australian households
> the cheap and, more importantly, easy money that the Poms, the Spanish
> and the Yanks got.
>
> For all its faults, the 4 Pillars policy works in times of stress
> and granted that isn't anywhere near the majority of the time, so
> it arguably contraints growth and innovation. But isn't a time of
> stress exactly when you need it to work the most?]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 15:56:45 -0500

On Nov 17 01:14 PM Go Lakers wrote:

> Well written articile. I'm an Australian who lives in the US and
> next to no one here knows this story. For what is supposedly the
> most savvy investing nation in the world, it's quite amazing that
> Americans are, for the most part, oblivious to an investing success
> story right under their noses.
>
> The 4 Pillars bank policy was a saviour for the Australian economy.
> Without it, and the essential ban on those 4 banks being taken over
> by a foreign bank (thank you the FIRB), our banks would have almost
> certainly been players in the sub-prime asset debacle, they would
> have chased higher returns, they would have been bigger players in
> the US and European markets, they would have fed Australian households
> the cheap and, more importantly, easy money that the Poms, the Spanish
> and the Yanks got.
>
> For all its faults, the 4 Pillars policy works in times of stress
> and granted that isn't anywhere near the majority of the time, so
> it arguably contraints growth and innovation. But isn't a time of
> stress exactly when you need it to work the most?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173139-ten-most-prominent-underperformers-in-corporate-america?source=feed#comment-759251 759251 Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:15:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173172-micropayments-data-point-of-the-day?source=feed#comment-759248 759248 Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:10:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173240-two-more-myths-about-business-in-china?source=feed#comment-759229 759229 Wake up folks, the global standard of living is leveling out, rising in the developing world, and ________________ in the developed world (fill in the blank).]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:01:57 -0500 Wake up folks, the global standard of living is leveling out, rising in the developing world, and ________________ in the developed world (fill in the blank).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173255-weekly-recap-is-the-u-s-going-bankrupt?source=feed#comment-759190 759190

On Nov 13 11:44 AM User 353732 wrote:

> The interesting question is not whether the US is bankrupt; it is.
> That is what negative net worth means.
>
> The 3 interesting, presently, unanswerable questions are:
>
> 1. What mechanism or mechanisms will the US Regime use to manifest
> the default?
> 2.How will the world and what is left of the American Middle Class
> respond?
> 3. Post response, will the USA as we know it exist as a legal, sovereign
> entity?
>
> No flourish of trumpets will announce the defaults and its cascading
> consequences. The night before, it will be business as usual for
> the US Regime; the next dawn will be a dawn like no other in American
> history.
>
> The night is far spent. There is a last day for economic wickedness
> and financial depravity. Reality and truth do prevail and will prevail.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:49:36 -0500

On Nov 13 11:44 AM User 353732 wrote:

> The interesting question is not whether the US is bankrupt; it is.
> That is what negative net worth means.
>
> The 3 interesting, presently, unanswerable questions are:
>
> 1. What mechanism or mechanisms will the US Regime use to manifest
> the default?
> 2.How will the world and what is left of the American Middle Class
> respond?
> 3. Post response, will the USA as we know it exist as a legal, sovereign
> entity?
>
> No flourish of trumpets will announce the defaults and its cascading
> consequences. The night before, it will be business as usual for
> the US Regime; the next dawn will be a dawn like no other in American
> history.
>
> The night is far spent. There is a last day for economic wickedness
> and financial depravity. Reality and truth do prevail and will prevail.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172077-ten-reasons-to-invest-in-malaysia?source=feed#comment-751232 751232 Tourism is probably a pretty good industry but stories of girls receiving 20 lashes for the crime of drinking a beer at a resort don't help much. See William Pesek's recent article on Bloomberg for additional views...they recently cancelled Beyonce's show but that's the least of their worries.
Overall 6 out of 10, IMO.]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 15:48:13 -0500 Tourism is probably a pretty good industry but stories of girls receiving 20 lashes for the crime of drinking a beer at a resort don't help much. See William Pesek's recent article on Bloomberg for additional views...they recently cancelled Beyonce's show but that's the least of their worries.
Overall 6 out of 10, IMO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171986-u-s-handling-of-financial-crisis-a-less-optimistic-view?source=feed#comment-750482 750482 As I say, I used to be a hardened Dem from California, now I'm a sunburned Aussie from Sydney...]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:48:41 -0500 As I say, I used to be a hardened Dem from California, now I'm a sunburned Aussie from Sydney...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171441-the-unspoken-threat-facing-telecoms?source=feed#comment-746836 746836 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:46:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171484-knocking-on-norwegian-wood?source=feed#comment-746806 746806 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:24:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170657-plenty-of-upside-remaining-for-microsoft?source=feed#comment-741632 741632 Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:55:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170241-today-in-commodities-vindication-as-markets-make-sense?source=feed#comment-738086 738086 Sat, 31 Oct 2009 02:27:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168697-why-apple-is-worth-80?source=feed#comment-729738 729738 The stock could be $50 or it could be $300, with good arguments either way.]]> Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:49:42 -0400 The stock could be $50 or it could be $300, with good arguments either way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168708-world-recovery-is-in-the-hands-of-opec?source=feed#comment-729723 729723 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 17:26:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168499-if-u-k-is-still-in-recession-why-are-london-house-prices-hitting-new-records?source=feed#comment-727647 727647 The only word for this system is "kleptocracy". Disgusting.]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:26:56 -0400 The only word for this system is "kleptocracy". Disgusting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166678-jp-morgan-cashes-in-at-taxpayers-expense?source=feed#comment-716200 716200 It's an obscenity. Everyone sitting on their couch and flicking the channels, and not ringing the phone off the hook of your local, state, and federal politicians....well, you're getting what you deserve. That is: nothing.
]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 09:37:34 -0400 It's an obscenity. Everyone sitting on their couch and flicking the channels, and not ringing the phone off the hook of your local, state, and federal politicians....well, you're getting what you deserve. That is: nothing.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165645-when-volcker-saved-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-710974 710974 Again the geniuses in Washington are asking the wrong questions. They shouldn't ask "should we send more troops to Afghanistan". Instead they should ask "should we imperil our nation's future by BORROWING more money to send more troops to Afghanistan". Or, even better, "should we BORROW more money to spend in an uneconomic activity that does nothing to advance America's future by trying to convice a bunch of goat herders to accept a completely foreign way of life and culture".
FYI, the Taliban has little or nothing to do with Al Qaeda...
Afghanistan is unwinnable, no matter how you define "winning".
1. The US military doesn't even speak the language, the Taliban does.
2. The US Military doesn't live there, the Taliban does. We send palette loads of bottled water via Federal Express just to keep our guys alive over there...yeah that's a smart use of BORROWED money.
3. The Taliban can deliver their program, AND WE CAN'T. The Taliban wants to return to the 12 century: goat herding and prayer calls. What do we want them to do, BUILD SHOPPING MALLS AND WATCH THE DISNEY CHANNEL???????
Sorry for the yelling but this issue does not get nearly enough play. And yes it does belong in an article about Paul Volcker and the decline of the dollar.


On Oct 09 03:52 PM Broxburnboy wrote:

> Yes.. the inflation of the late 70s - 80s was caused by the expenses
> incurred for the disastrous Vietnam War, and the malinvestment and
> destruction of wealth associated with that event.
> No establishment economist seems to want to come to terms with the
> wealth destruction and inflation associated with the current forever
> war on foreign soil. As long as the unfunded, malinvestment continues,
> the dollar will worsen, unemployment rise and wealth destruction
> continue.
> Buy gold...]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:58:35 -0400 Again the geniuses in Washington are asking the wrong questions. They shouldn't ask "should we send more troops to Afghanistan". Instead they should ask "should we imperil our nation's future by BORROWING more money to send more troops to Afghanistan". Or, even better, "should we BORROW more money to spend in an uneconomic activity that does nothing to advance America's future by trying to convice a bunch of goat herders to accept a completely foreign way of life and culture".
FYI, the Taliban has little or nothing to do with Al Qaeda...
Afghanistan is unwinnable, no matter how you define "winning".
1. The US military doesn't even speak the language, the Taliban does.
2. The US Military doesn't live there, the Taliban does. We send palette loads of bottled water via Federal Express just to keep our guys alive over there...yeah that's a smart use of BORROWED money.
3. The Taliban can deliver their program, AND WE CAN'T. The Taliban wants to return to the 12 century: goat herding and prayer calls. What do we want them to do, BUILD SHOPPING MALLS AND WATCH THE DISNEY CHANNEL???????
Sorry for the yelling but this issue does not get nearly enough play. And yes it does belong in an article about Paul Volcker and the decline of the dollar.


On Oct 09 03:52 PM Broxburnboy wrote:

> Yes.. the inflation of the late 70s - 80s was caused by the expenses
> incurred for the disastrous Vietnam War, and the malinvestment and
> destruction of wealth associated with that event.
> No establishment economist seems to want to come to terms with the
> wealth destruction and inflation associated with the current forever
> war on foreign soil. As long as the unfunded, malinvestment continues,
> the dollar will worsen, unemployment rise and wealth destruction
> continue.
> Buy gold...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165657-faces-of-death-the-u-s-dollar-in-crisis?source=feed#comment-710955 710955 USD has had "home court advantage" on both of these for decades. First as the wordwide trade currency and secondly as a good, visible, safe, transparent, and popular place to invest, both for institutions and individuals. This home court advantage has saved the US tens of billions of dollars by allowing US interest rates to remain relatively low because there is a background demand for our currency.
But this "home court advantage" is slipping on both counts. Cross-border trade MAY increasingly be done in other currencies, but the shift will be slow. IMF says the USD share of trade transactions will fall from 60% to 52% in the next ten years.
The real effect IMO will be because of the second factor, investor appetite for USD assets. In the last 30 years, the American myth has been propagated throughout the world via Hollywood, mainstream media, and indeed, the US military. Everyone "knew" America was not only the strongest country but also the smartest, and also the best place to be an entrepreneur. America rescued the world from fascism and put a man on the moon. Most giant pools of investor assets are still controlled from NYC and London, and in most cases those investors didn't know anything about the rest of the world, didn't understand those locations, hadn't heard of their brands, didn't like their political instability and sketchy contract law. And let's face it, inherent racism also played a role: they didn't want to invest their money with someone with yellow or brown skin.
As giant pools of money are increasingly directed from places like Dubai and Beijing and Moscow and Rio and Norway and Singapore, however, many of those knee-jerk biases will be much less powerful. Yes America can and will create the next Google and Apple and Microsoft, but so will Brazil and China and India. And as America slips in things like education, taking care of its citizens, regulatory oversight (Bernie Madoff?) and replaces private capital formation with public entitlements, The USD will be less and less attractive to investors. It will be a generational change, kind of like sterling after WWI. IMO.]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:39:09 -0400 USD has had "home court advantage" on both of these for decades. First as the wordwide trade currency and secondly as a good, visible, safe, transparent, and popular place to invest, both for institutions and individuals. This home court advantage has saved the US tens of billions of dollars by allowing US interest rates to remain relatively low because there is a background demand for our currency.
But this "home court advantage" is slipping on both counts. Cross-border trade MAY increasingly be done in other currencies, but the shift will be slow. IMF says the USD share of trade transactions will fall from 60% to 52% in the next ten years.
The real effect IMO will be because of the second factor, investor appetite for USD assets. In the last 30 years, the American myth has been propagated throughout the world via Hollywood, mainstream media, and indeed, the US military. Everyone "knew" America was not only the strongest country but also the smartest, and also the best place to be an entrepreneur. America rescued the world from fascism and put a man on the moon. Most giant pools of investor assets are still controlled from NYC and London, and in most cases those investors didn't know anything about the rest of the world, didn't understand those locations, hadn't heard of their brands, didn't like their political instability and sketchy contract law. And let's face it, inherent racism also played a role: they didn't want to invest their money with someone with yellow or brown skin.
As giant pools of money are increasingly directed from places like Dubai and Beijing and Moscow and Rio and Norway and Singapore, however, many of those knee-jerk biases will be much less powerful. Yes America can and will create the next Google and Apple and Microsoft, but so will Brazil and China and India. And as America slips in things like education, taking care of its citizens, regulatory oversight (Bernie Madoff?) and replaces private capital formation with public entitlements, The USD will be less and less attractive to investors. It will be a generational change, kind of like sterling after WWI. IMO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165420-the-great-shift-china-rising-u-s-falling?source=feed#comment-709368 709368
Though I didn't see any reference to the core value systems that have underpinned these shifts.
In the US we've been encouraged to live for today, appearances are everything, if your nose is too big or your boobs are too small well then just borrow some money to get plastic surgery, if your neighbor got granite countertops then you should borrow money to get them too, etc etc. Borrow and spend, not save and invest. Take a look at the movies and TV shows and music videos of the last 30 years, it's all there. Add in a little Texas-style bragging about "We're Number 1" (and if you disagree then we'll send our military and $1 trillion to change your regime...)
Contrast that to Confucianism: save, invest, get educated, sacrifice, pay your debts, think about family, think about the future.
Two completely different value systems ]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:28:53 -0400
Though I didn't see any reference to the core value systems that have underpinned these shifts.
In the US we've been encouraged to live for today, appearances are everything, if your nose is too big or your boobs are too small well then just borrow some money to get plastic surgery, if your neighbor got granite countertops then you should borrow money to get them too, etc etc. Borrow and spend, not save and invest. Take a look at the movies and TV shows and music videos of the last 30 years, it's all there. Add in a little Texas-style bragging about "We're Number 1" (and if you disagree then we'll send our military and $1 trillion to change your regime...)
Contrast that to Confucianism: save, invest, get educated, sacrifice, pay your debts, think about family, think about the future.
Two completely different value systems ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163919-marc-faber-equities-safer-than-dollars?source=feed#comment-696070 696070 That's how.


On Sep 29 03:41 PM Thomas J. Gordon wrote:

> Faber is an interesting guy. I watched the videos. I have a question.
> Faber said the stock market was going up be Bernanke was giving people
> money to buy stocks. What is the mechanism for that? When I took
> macroeconomics, the fed increased the money supply, the banks applied
> the multiplier affect, and overall prices rose. Overall prices aren't
> rising (yet?). How does money printed by the fed wind up in the hands
> of people that want to buy the overall stock market? I have a problem
> with the recurring statements that excess money printed by the fed
> ends up in some particular market (real estate, oil, etc..)]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 19:04:38 -0400 That's how.


On Sep 29 03:41 PM Thomas J. Gordon wrote:

> Faber is an interesting guy. I watched the videos. I have a question.
> Faber said the stock market was going up be Bernanke was giving people
> money to buy stocks. What is the mechanism for that? When I took
> macroeconomics, the fed increased the money supply, the banks applied
> the multiplier affect, and overall prices rose. Overall prices aren't
> rising (yet?). How does money printed by the fed wind up in the hands
> of people that want to buy the overall stock market? I have a problem
> with the recurring statements that excess money printed by the fed
> ends up in some particular market (real estate, oil, etc..)]]>