davesilb

Rising Oil Prices: What We Have to Do ASAP

Fred. you were pretty much right on most of your comments but for the one on bio fuels and ethanol. The production of both of them use so much regular fuel to produce that it really is not economically reasonable to produce them. Not only that but they are inferior fuels and do not produce the BTU's of the conventional fuels and in the case of ethanol does do damage to some engines and fuel systems


On Jun 12 01:34 PM Fred Linn wrote:

> --------"Look, you guys know that I am very optimistic about recovery
> generally. You also know that I worry about oil prices. I don’t really
> know how else to say this, but oil prices are about to kill our chances
> at recovery dead. That’s all there is to it"-----------
>
> That is pretty much a given, considering that the skyrocketing price
> of fuel is one of the main precipitating factors that got us into
> this mess in the first place.
>
> --------"This isn’t difficult to understand. If prices behave as
> they have for the past four months for the next month, then that’s
> it; recovery is cooked. If oil crosses $100 per barrel, then we’ll
> be lucky to see a positive growth rate in 2010."------------
>
> Is there any reason to believe that they WON'T continue to rise just
> as they have for the last 4 months?
>
> --------" Here’s what I’d do:
>
> - Beg OPEC for more production."--------
>
> George Bush already tried that. He licked boots and kissed nether
> regions in Saudi Arabia to try to get them to increase production.
> There was a lot of smiling and handshaking, but it had no effect
> on the supply or price of crude. He offered to build nuclear
> reactors for them. In the country that was home to 11 of 19 terrorists
> involved in 9/11. In Osama bin Laden's home country. In
> the place where, more than anywhere else on earth, the ruling elite
> benefit enormously from even the smallest uptick in crude oil prices.
> I think we can say that begging OPEC for more oil won't help----high
> oil prices are in their own best interest. The same with any
> other OPEC country, Canada included.
>
> -------"Authorize the release of substantial amounts of oil from
> the strategic petroleum reserve."---------
>
> This asset is misnamed. It should be Emergency Oil Reserve.
> If we take oil out so everybody can go on a summer vacation, what
> happens if we have an emergency? Murphy's law----Anything that
> can possibly go wrong will, and at the worst possible time.
>
> --------" Provide immediate funding to transit systems nationwide
> to increase service wherever possible."----------
>
> If the price of fuel increases rapidly, transit systems will have
> to use the increased funding just to maintain the services they now
> have, let alone provide any increases to services. Would you
> want to work for a company that was only hiring you as long as the
> price of crude oil remains above $100 a barrel?
>
> ---------"Announce an immediate program of substantial increases
> in the gas tax, to begin in 2011."---------
>
> Increase taxes, always a popular move. How will increasing taxes
> in 2011 increase production in 2009?
>
> --------"Request economic analyses of other proposals, like salary
> subsidies to workers at firms which encourage telecommuting, or a
> temporary four-day work week."----------
>
> More studies and investigations. Now there's a proposal that is
> sure to help. [not---sorry, don't take the sarcasm personally]
> LOL!
>
> The only thing that will help is biofuel production. Every gallon
> of biodiesel produced will offset the need for petrodiesel by one
> gallon. And it can be used immediately----biodiesel can be blended
> and used in any diesel engine with no modification at all.
>
> Increase production of ethanol and increase the blend requirement
> to E20. All conventional cars can run a blend of up to E30----E20
> has been used in Europe in the past to restrict the need for imported
> oil. We should do it again.
>
> Mandate that all new cars sold in the US be Flex Fuel capable.
> Flex Fuel vehicles can use either petroleum gasoline or E85(85% ethanol)
> in any combination, just fill up with whatever is available.
> Flex Fuel vehicles are in manufacture now, and have been for about
> 20 years. Flex Fuel costs the same or only minimally more than
> conventional gas only. If we are going to be riding an oil price
> roller coaster, it only makes sense to me for drivers to have a choice
> that will flatten the hills and straighten the curves. The cost
> of this option would be negligible.
>
> ------" There’s just only so much you can do in a short amount of
> time to minimize the impact of rising oil prices. We should have
> been preparing for this for some time now. Oh well"---------
>
> That is true. We should have been doing more for a long time.
> OPEC has us over a barrel and they know it. And they are laughing
> all the way to the bank.
>
> However, if we bring in a different barrel, it could change the game
> entirely. It think it is very possible that you would see a complete
> change of attitude when it becomes apparent that petroleum is no
> longer the only game in town. That's alright, a psychological
> effect is still an effect. And I think once we put ourselves
> on the road to replacing petroleum, we'll find that there are a lot
> of reasons to just stay on that road.
>
> Besides, biofuels can be made right here, using raw materials from
> right here, paying workers right here. Good for the economy---we
> aren't throwing away money shipping it overseas to buy a commodity
> we are just going to burn.
>
>
>
>

Missing the Early Bull Market Can Be Costly

Yea and if you jump in now and it goes back down to test the lows you have gained nothing when the bull market does actually start because you will need the 40% increase just to get back even!! And in reality you just left the 40% you talked about on the table.

Why Hyperinflation Is Not Coming

We will get hyperinflation but not as quick as the article was saying. The inflation will not take place until home prices and the rest of the falling prices do hit bottom. But once everything does hit its bottom (may be up to 3-4 years out) we will get the hyperinflation that he claims isn't coming. The problem with his article is that he assumed hyperinflation was going to come within a year or two. He is right about that not being able to happen while prices are still falling. Prices will eventually stop falling and then is when hyperinflation takes over and why he is wrong on his thinking.

Earnings Are Horrible, But It May Not Matter

I do not trust the earnings reports. They could be cooked just like the rest of the things we are finding in the financial. How could these company"s be making money when spending and consumer borrowing is down????


On Apr 11 12:05 PM InvestBaboo wrote:

> Earnings are down but the market is up. Why you wonder?
>
> It is because the market expects future earnings to be substantially
> higher than what is forecasted. Chart indicators are pointing to
> a bull market rally of the sort that happened after Regan took office.
> Every time I have bet against the chart (Ex. Gold will go up because.....)
> I have lost and my posts from the past would indicate to you. I have
> been part of this same gang that you hear over and over again and
> again making arguments one way or another using their substantive
> intellectual skills to analyze all data available. I have followed
> companies with extraordinary sales and earnings prospects thinking
> that the negative charts would turn positive but have had my investment
> toasted and my head handed over to me. After a few months it would
> come out that the company's prospects were not really all that rosy
> and something was going on beneath the surface that was not obvious
> in the performance.
>
> Given these lessons from the past here is what I do. I do what the
> charts tell me to do. I place my stop losses where the charts tell
> to put them. I turn CNBC on and they are spitting on a stock but
> the charts tell me to buy them -- I buy them. Recent great example
> is Oil. PBR showed strong buy signals yet when oil closed below 50
> every pundit and guru out there was saying that Oil was moving to
> below 40. Wait a minute -- PBR charts said buy and how do you rationalize
> this? I followed the charts and the charts trumped the pundits and
> gurus.
>
> I noticed unusual chart patterns GS and MS when Bank stocks were
> stuck in the gutter and the Dow was at catastrophic lows just a few
> weeks back. I consider GS to be a leading indicator for banking stocks
> because they have historically reacted that way. So when GS registered
> a weekly Buy signal and BAC showed multiple daily buy signals I bought
> wholescale into financials a decision that proved to be very profitable.
> The Gold bulls were making an argument that Gold would soon surpass
> the $1000 marke on its way to far higher shores. However, the charts
> showed sell signals. I dumped Gold and sure enough it fell below
> 900 and is stuck there showing no signs of life.
>
> I also noticed something else unusual. Several commodity, financial,
> industrial, energy, you-name-it stocks that were once trading in
> high double or even triple digits that had gone down to pocket change
> were showing signs of life. When they started registering multiple
> buy signals I bought in (somewhat reluctantly) dozens of the once-great
> companies for pocket change. Over the last 4 weeks this portfolio
> of mine has registered a 30% gain and these stocks keep seeming to
> power higher. I adjust my stop losses on these stocks on a weekly
> basis so as to give them enough room to settle down and breath deep
> preparing for the next run up. I am beginning to think that many
> of these once double and triple digit stocks will hit their previous
> 52 week highs in the next one or two years and if that happens that
> is substantial wealth creation right there.
>
> Ok, coming back to what it is that could be fueling the extraordinary
> bull run I can only think that the lesson of 2008 which delivered
> a kick in the balls to America and the Asian tigers China and India
> is leading a wholescale set of reforms that will provide the market
> the fodder to make new higher highs than before. A lot has changed
> in the past few weeks. There have been significant earnings surprises.
> C'mon people -- how do you discount Best Buy, Bed Bath and Beyond
> and RIM earnings? These earnings are IMPOSSIBLE if you believe the
> economy to the way it is. It clearly is not which tells me that again
> the gurus and the pundits are wrong. Maybe, just maybe, the govt
> has done things right this time and greasing the wheels and the system
> for another remarkable bull run. Just maybe. If true the Dow will
> likely run towards new highs. Past its previous high of 14,000 on
> to newer levels.

Benefits of Immigration and Migration

You don't need to give facts when God gave you a brain to look around and observe. Facts can be distorted any way you want. If you could not agree or see that what was spoken above to be mostly facts you are a little short on the brains department!!


On Apr 09 09:31 AM lostark98 wrote:

> I would like to propose that those who have made comments provide
> supporting data for their comments. I see no concrete information,
> just a lot of opinion. Perhaps the study being discussed is flawed,
> but I have not read any plausible counter-argument that is supported
> by facts. All I am getting from the comments is conjecture, opinion,
> and lots of hyperbole.
>
> I know this is a great forum to express opinions, but without some
> substance behind the rhetoric none of this advances the discussion
> of an important issue. It just provides more heat to inflame differing
> views.

AIG: If You Can't Beat 'Em, Tax 'Em

Tax them to the Max!!! Taxes can be made retro active they have been before. While at it pass a law that would keep any top executive from any financial institution from going to work at another financial institution for two years if there is any chance of them using their knowledge of former employer to help new employer or hurt former employer. This will eliminate the need for these ridiculous bonus's. If some court system tries to undo this use the means to remove the justices themselves. If they cann't find a way to do that then limit the terms justices can serve and make it retroactive!!!

The Financial System is Finished

Very good point

Was Friday's Rally Just a Hedge Fund Short Squeeze?

The hedge funds do not need money to short stocks!!!! It does not take money to short, it only takes money to cover short positions if the price goes up. So the Hedges could be doing what writer thinks is possible.

The Bottom's Within Sight - Barron's

Yea try to blame the Republicans. But it was the Democrats that demanded the financial institutions load to the homeowners who could not really afford the homes. This in turn drove the prices up to cause the bubble and bad loans that the Republicans have been trying to control with legislation the last 2-3 years but the Democrats would not allow the legislation to past because it would hurt the financial institutions that were contributing to their campaigns. There was a handful of Republicans that did side with the majority Democrats to keep this new legislation from passing. And I would like to see those RINO Republicans lose their job this election!

Why the Financial Markets Haven't Responded

Dagon,
you are the one that has no clue wandering around without a clue and making dumb statements

Why the Financial Markets Haven't Responded

Mase,
Not a good comparision because a quarterback knows the game better then his teammates that is why he can lead. If he did not know the game he could not call the play and he would be better off letting some who knew the game call it!!! That is what happen in this bailout. I however do not agree with the play as I think the play caller and his former teammates (not present teammates),had too much to gain by the play he called.

Why the Financial Markets Haven't Responded

Mase,
Not a good comparision because a quarterback knows the game better then his teammates that is why he can lead. If he did not know the game he could not call the play and he would be better off letting some who knew the game call it!!! That is what happen in this bailout. I however do not agree with the play as I think the play caller and his former teammates (not present teammates),had too much to gain by the play he called.