davesilb

Missing the Early Bull Market Can Be Costly

Yea and if you jump in now and it goes back down to test the lows you have gained nothing when the bull market does actually start because you will need the 40% increase just to get back even!! And in reality you just left the 40% you talked about on the table.

Earnings Are Horrible, But It May Not Matter

I do not trust the earnings reports. They could be cooked just like the rest of the things we are finding in the financial. How could these company"s be making money when spending and consumer borrowing is down????


On Apr 11 12:05 PM InvestBaboo wrote:

> Earnings are down but the market is up. Why you wonder?
>
> It is because the market expects future earnings to be substantially
> higher than what is forecasted. Chart indicators are pointing to
> a bull market rally of the sort that happened after Regan took office.
> Every time I have bet against the chart (Ex. Gold will go up because.....)
> I have lost and my posts from the past would indicate to you. I have
> been part of this same gang that you hear over and over again and
> again making arguments one way or another using their substantive
> intellectual skills to analyze all data available. I have followed
> companies with extraordinary sales and earnings prospects thinking
> that the negative charts would turn positive but have had my investment
> toasted and my head handed over to me. After a few months it would
> come out that the company's prospects were not really all that rosy
> and something was going on beneath the surface that was not obvious
> in the performance.
>
> Given these lessons from the past here is what I do. I do what the
> charts tell me to do. I place my stop losses where the charts tell
> to put them. I turn CNBC on and they are spitting on a stock but
> the charts tell me to buy them -- I buy them. Recent great example
> is Oil. PBR showed strong buy signals yet when oil closed below 50
> every pundit and guru out there was saying that Oil was moving to
> below 40. Wait a minute -- PBR charts said buy and how do you rationalize
> this? I followed the charts and the charts trumped the pundits and
> gurus.
>
> I noticed unusual chart patterns GS and MS when Bank stocks were
> stuck in the gutter and the Dow was at catastrophic lows just a few
> weeks back. I consider GS to be a leading indicator for banking stocks
> because they have historically reacted that way. So when GS registered
> a weekly Buy signal and BAC showed multiple daily buy signals I bought
> wholescale into financials a decision that proved to be very profitable.
> The Gold bulls were making an argument that Gold would soon surpass
> the $1000 marke on its way to far higher shores. However, the charts
> showed sell signals. I dumped Gold and sure enough it fell below
> 900 and is stuck there showing no signs of life.
>
> I also noticed something else unusual. Several commodity, financial,
> industrial, energy, you-name-it stocks that were once trading in
> high double or even triple digits that had gone down to pocket change
> were showing signs of life. When they started registering multiple
> buy signals I bought in (somewhat reluctantly) dozens of the once-great
> companies for pocket change. Over the last 4 weeks this portfolio
> of mine has registered a 30% gain and these stocks keep seeming to
> power higher. I adjust my stop losses on these stocks on a weekly
> basis so as to give them enough room to settle down and breath deep
> preparing for the next run up. I am beginning to think that many
> of these once double and triple digit stocks will hit their previous
> 52 week highs in the next one or two years and if that happens that
> is substantial wealth creation right there.
>
> Ok, coming back to what it is that could be fueling the extraordinary
> bull run I can only think that the lesson of 2008 which delivered
> a kick in the balls to America and the Asian tigers China and India
> is leading a wholescale set of reforms that will provide the market
> the fodder to make new higher highs than before. A lot has changed
> in the past few weeks. There have been significant earnings surprises.
> C'mon people -- how do you discount Best Buy, Bed Bath and Beyond
> and RIM earnings? These earnings are IMPOSSIBLE if you believe the
> economy to the way it is. It clearly is not which tells me that again
> the gurus and the pundits are wrong. Maybe, just maybe, the govt
> has done things right this time and greasing the wheels and the system
> for another remarkable bull run. Just maybe. If true the Dow will
> likely run towards new highs. Past its previous high of 14,000 on
> to newer levels.