Carl Martin

http://myblog.com

39 Comments

    • Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011 [view article]
      Think-About-It, Get Real! The only person on this planet, who can waste your own time is you! So stop holding other people responsible for your own foolishness, and start taking some responsibility for yourself. No one wants to hear about how unhappy you are wasting your time at seeking alpha. Only a very desperate loser would make a fool of themselves in public, in order to get some much needed attention. This website was created for serious investors to exchange their opinions and analysis about publicly traded companies, and you are very welcome to join the rest of us in this mutual pastime. Aug 29 05:08 AM
    • In Support of Potash Corp.'s Projected 2008 Gross Margin Increase [view article]
      Tim Plaehn,
      Thanks for your feedback. I agree that the market priced in the 2008 growth in 2007, but I don't agree that the present or future growth is slowing. On the contrary, I'm roughing out an article PROVING that the growth is increasing, but it won't be ready any time soon. I agree, that the market might well THINK that growth is slowing and acting accordingly, but I believe it's only a temporary rotation out of commdities. After all, a lot of, people once rotated in to commodities, well knowing, that they would also soon rotate out. Most "investors" just follow the crowd in the short term market swings.

      I am definitly not assuming that 201% (gross margin) growth or stock growth is going to occur "as far as the eye can see." That quote referred to fertilizer (especially potash) price increases, not gross margin increases, or stock increases. Of course, price increases usually result in gross margin increases, which also sometimes result in stock increases, but only if all else goes well.

      I continue to stand for every word in the article, even though there was some editing by SA.       Aug 26 09:39 AM
    • The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI) [view article]
      GROTY, Check out the volume charts. I think the volume spikes represent the days when management is doing some heavy buying. Thursday, July 24th, 2008 might show up in the financial history books some day. Volume was at more than 25 million shares, compared to almost 11 million average the last three months. Management could have easily bought the remaining 5 million shares at prices between 195 and 205. So maybe the buying program is already over. What do you think? Jul 25 07:18 AM
    • The 2008 Share Repurchase Program At Potash Corp. (Part VI) [view article]
      GROTY, An excellant point! I'm aware that some companies abuse share repurchases, and /or make terrible mistakes, that they and shareholders seriously regret with the passage of time. I chose not to "muddy the waters" with all the relevant facts and pros and cons of buybacks, as I don't think many people quite understand what they are to begin with. You obviously do. The key to understanding whether Potash Corp's repurchase program is likely to be a good idea or not, would seem to hang on whether Warren Buffet's wise words apply to the present situation or not. Notice how the author is carefully hiding behind Warren Buffet's words. That seems like a safe place to hide, so I'll let him take all the heat, if there ever is any. There's not many comments on this article so far. It looks like the other one (The Agriculture Boom Goes Bust) is getting all the heat instead. Jul 24 08:00 AM
    • What You Can - And Can't - Learn from Warren Buffett [view article]
      RICK KONRAD, You have a really clear way of thinking and expressing, on top of a very sharp mind. Jul 21 09:23 AM
    • UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again [view article]
      CYERMAN, No to your first two questions, yes to your third. Your line of thinking and questioning is very good and correct,so keep up the good work, but you are mostly thinking USA. Just use the same type of thinking and ask all the same type of questions, as applied to the whole world. Then you will get the answers you are looking for. Jul 21 09:03 AM
    • UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again [view article]
      WILL, I can't agree with your reasoning, but I feel your anger and frustration. It seems to be overpowering your power of reasoning. Not many people can reason well, when anger is in control of the mind. Try calming down a little and reading this article and blogs over again, perhaps on another day. There is a lot of valuble information being offered to you free of any charge.The price of a company's stock at any moment only represents the balance of supply and demand for the stock at that moment. The price is merely the mechanism that ensures the relative balance between supply and demand. Markets are only as rational as the people who buy and sell in them. Do you actually think that we investor humanoids are rational? Do you think that the going price of any stock somehow does, or should, represent the true value of the company? When a company's stock price is going down, at the same time that the news flow is very positive, and the company and industry fundamentals are very strong, rational investors see that as a great buying opportunity. What you see now is a just a market shake out, and all the scared uninformed bears are selling to the calm well informed bulls. One of those bulls buying heavily is the management of Potash Corp, not with their own money, but with the shareholders money. We who are long POT don't have to do anything. Management does it for us by buying the stock of the scared and uninformed bears, at bargain prices during market turndowns, which is the subject of my next article. If you really want to get angry, try clicking on the July 1st article "The Better Performing Half Of Potash Corp" and subsequent articles. That will really make your day, if anger is what you like best. Second quarter results are due on Thursday, don't miss out on all the fun!!! Jul 21 08:49 AM
    • UBS Raises PotashCorp and Agrium's Price Targets - Again [view article]
      JimPunkrockford, I'm sorry but I can't agree with your view of farmers using other cheaper fertilizers, or cutting back on Potash. The active ingredient in Potash (KCL) is Potassium (K) an element, that cannot be substituted for, as it is an element. In Phosphates, same story. Phosphorous (P) is also an element. Nitrogen (N) also same story. These are the three main fertilizers. The three lesser fertilizers are calcium (CA), sulfur (S), and Magnesium (Mg), also elements. None of these can be replaced by another to achieve a positive economic effect because they are all unique elements. All are necessary for optimum plant growth, but there is still much more. It's the correct balance between them all, that gives the farmer his pay off. Food scientists say that the world needs to double it's use of Potash to get the results needed to feed the whole world. It's the world wide lack of Potash used, that is causing the most problems. Therefore the best solution is to invest in Potash. The best places to get more info are potashcorp.com and monsanto.com, then you will see the light. North American farmers make about three dollars for every dollar they INVEST IN Potash. The rest of the world's farmers can make much more, up to about 10 dollars per dollar invested, because their fields are very depleted of Potassium, because they have never used enough of it, because many of them still don't know what Potassium actually is, and because they don't have any Potash deposits (India), or very few (China,Brazil, Indonesia, and most other countries.) Jul 21 08:04 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      MW92101, Nice blog, why don't you expand it and turn it into an article. All you need to add is disclosure of your position, as required by SA. The only part I don't agree with is your 2 cents evaluation. Your blog is worth exactly as much to any other investor, as they eventually make (or lose), by following, (or not following) your line of reasoning, accepting (or not accepting) the facts you have presented, topped off by your conclusions, which of course represent your well founded opinions. An investment in MOS right now, might well result in a short term loss somewhere in cyber space in the near future, which only an idiot would grab by selling into it, (and then of course holding all others responsible including authors, articles, management,charts, markets etc.) These fertilizer stocks, especially those with Potash are the "no brainers" of this decade. All you need to do is buy at the market price, no matter how high and "over-valued"... that may seem to be and hold, at least 5 or 10 years, until the supply of Potash has even a reasonable chance of equaling the world wide demand. Then you might just start thinking about, considering the possibility of, selling part or all of your enormous profits, or just continuing to hold even longer, because by then the world wide demand, having also increased considerably, might well still surpass the world wide supply.I'm long on MOS and almost all other agricultural investments, especially fertilizers and seeds, which feed each other. The more effective the seeds are at mining the soil for nutrients, the more nutrients (fertilizers) are needed. The higher priced and more effective gene-spliced seeds are bought with the extra profits that, the smart farmer makes from using ever increasing amounts of fertilizers. The vast majority of the world's farmers are not that smart yet - China, India, Brazil, Indonesia etc. That's why the world has an agriculture crises on it's hands. Do you want to be part of the problem, one more noisy yapping mouth to feed, or part of the solution - a well informed investor, who bases investment decisions on FACTS, not opinons. RRealtyPro just beat all the slower readers. Now he gets the benefits of everyone, who buys in at a higher price, but not the ones who buy in at a lower price. Someday soon, all buying and selling will take place at a higher level, and never return to the available price today. Jul 21 06:45 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      Muzie, Thanks for the helpful feedback. I don't have a website at present. I thought that myblog.com was a system to use for people without websites, like the use of "poste restance" in the international postal system, where world travellers can receive personal mail at their next intended destination. I'll get it fixed along with some other matters, like the heavy abuse at this website, when some of the editors from SA return from summer vacation. I'm glad your brave enough to enter the mud bath. Stay clean, and you can contact me through blogs, if you want to Jul 21 05:16 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      Pothead,
      Could you please offer some facts to back up your opinions. Opinions that aren't supported by facts have no value to others, therefore we others can only assume that your comments are only meant to please yourself, and not others. Why not contribute something of value to the general public? I can only assume that you are a potash bear. The Potash bears have never produced the facts that support their position, simply because there are, NO KNOWN FACTS, to support their position. Therefore they attempt to argue with others on the basis of opinions. It all results in a contest of who can shout the loudest. The Potash bears have painted themselves in the corner and experience much pain because of it. When an author chooses to expose the plight of the Potash bears in a series of "slow,difficult to understand, long winded articles," that establish the long term bull case, through the methodical process of laying down undeniable facts; Potash bears will begin to experience ever increasing levels of anguish, as the circle closes in on them. Make no mistake, You are being subjected to a written version of the chinese water torture. You can avoid this unpleasentness by either not reading the articles, or changing your position. Your present level of pain is obvious to us all. Why don't you stop torturing yourself in the public space at SA. Only a fool would torture himself in front of others in order to get attention. Most adults left that kind of behavior behind in their childhood, but obviously some others did not. Apparently you feel threatened by my writings. As fear is born of ignorance, it is clear to us all, that you don't understand what I'm writing. Therefore, I wrote an article on a level that any well adjusted six year old should be able to understand. However, many of the Potash bears could not understand the article, and wrongly concluded that the article was condescending to them personally, as they chose to identify themselves with the six year old, that the story was written about, not for. When a person functioning on the level of a two or three year old, suddenly starts identifying with a six year old, then adults refer to this person as being pretentious. Pretentious is one of those adult words that means - trying to impress by pretending to be more important or better than one actually is. The fact is, the article was way over their heads,and the proof is, they did not understand it. I don't expect you to actually understand any part of this blog either, as it is clearly way over your head. All others will easily understand it, so it's written more for them than for you. You have hereby been exposed!       Jul 18 05:43 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      To Clavis,
      You might need to read my articles a few times, as they are not that easy to understand. I don't recall writing what you apparently are reading. Maybe you are reading something of your own in my articles. I don't know, it seems like almost everyone is doing this. To try to set the record staight, Nitrogen and Phosphate have been very strong in 2007, and it looks like they will remain so in 2008. Potash has been relatively weak in 2007, and is expected to be very strong in 2008, and much stronger than the other two together. It is not me that is confused, it is the investing public, and especially the Potash bears. If people understood this stock, it would be trading at much higher multiples. Those aren't just my words. Management has always been saying this. They can't understand why investors can't see the light and buy the stock now, and then just sit back and enjoy the ride. Just watch and wait for the July 24th numbers. Then we will all know for sure.       Jul 17 11:00 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      To "Strawtogold"...
      The author does not disagree with Mr. Carpenter on anything. The "outrageous" refers more to my own sense of humor and irony, and does not reflect my opinon of any of his numbers. I think your blog is very noteworthy.       Jul 17 09:07 AM
    • The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V) [view article]
      Readers should understand that, the editors at SA have altered the title somewhat, as well as leaving out the last three paragraphs, there fore you are not being allowed to see and read this article as intended. As such don't be surprised, if you feel left hanging or that you feel something valuble is missing. Perhaps,I should blog the entire article as it was originally written. There is a concept called freedom of the press. Jul 17 08:59 AM
    • 2007 Cost Impacts at Potash Corp. (Part III) [view article]
      Thanks for the valuble info, "SHIP", it will show up in a later article no doubt. Why don't you beat me to it.? It's probably months away, and all you need to do is expand your well written and informative blog into a well written and informative article, and you are in. I can almost guarantee that SA will accept it. Jul 17 08:45 AM
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