Seeking Alpha

FIFOkid

FIFOkid
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View FIFOkid's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Update: Aura Minerals Continues To Turn Around - Q3 Results Were Very Strong [View article]
    Tim since you have much influence in the board room why not suggest a share buy back should the share price stagnate. Shutting down their achilles heel in Aranzazu and was the event for my investment dollars. At $1200 gold they should now generate 42.7 million in annual EBITDA and at $1300 gold the number rises to 54 million in annual EBITDA with their hedge kicking in at $1206 at their low end of production guidance and high end of cash costs.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Aura Minerals Reports Strong Production At San Andres [View article]
    I have been a recent buyer of shares on the same premise of anticipated forward valuation at current prices of approximately 1 time EV/EBITDA which is very cheap IMO.

    I am also hoping the industry guidance remains conservative and has tempered the positive impact of lower oil prices in expectations.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koven: Many reasons for takeover interest in Nevsun, and one big negative [View news story]
    The Eritrea issue is really overblown other than for a great opportunity to scale into the company. I think the risk of a nationalistic communist coup is zero. Arabs don't believe in communism. A coup with a capitalistic doctrine will continue to honor the lease. Centamin Egypt had a similar regime change twice in a period of 2 years and the company is still intact and the stock is about the same price it was before all of the political changes and this is under fundamentals with much lower gold prices.

    The bigger fear is the EPA in good ol' USA. It has virtually dismantled the coal industry to nonexistence.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ethanol Company REX American Resources Severely Undervalued On Solid, Growing Earnings [View article]
    No arguments about the company I agree it is the best run fuel grade ethanol producer and gives you the most leverage in the sector with its small float. When common sense prevails this stock is very oversold and has not reflected any of the 33% recovery in ethanol prices off of the October lows bucking the trend for other finished energy commodities. No one is paying attention to this at the moment and is myoptically focused on the crude bottom from a trading perspective for the potential of a strong January effect on the E&Ps.

    But I have a serious doubt there will be new high in the next 52 weeks for the stock. A cyclical market can be very fickle unless everything goes right for it. Although margins theoretically can improve and hit new records on stable volumes however, if gross ethanol prices do not eclypse the last cycle high I see little hope for a new high during this bullish cycle from experience. I also highly doubt if they can materially expand volumes with the current price for wholesale unleaded as I know a few states have eliminated the mandate under those conditions in the past.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mawson West Trades At 1x 2015 Cash Flow With A Clear Catalyst In Sight [View article]
    Well you can now buy this at the "bargain" price of 2 cents CDN now and it looks like more dilution is in the cards at this price range and I am sure a bunch of warrants will be attached to it.

    Apparently you were wrong in believing the snake oil salesmen here. I learned my painful lesson when the Dikulushi open pit project serially disappointed and generated profits nowhere near original expectations and moved on. Now they are experiencing mining dilution issues with the underground mine.

    In addition, the recent 43-101 at Kapulo did everything to mislead you. If you note the 10% NPV figure did not even include capex costs and used a copper price 10% higher than the current than it is currently in its calculation which is a first. I think at this price level the mine is going to operate very close to all in costs which implies there is no equity gain to the shareholder on that project.


    Dec 9, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • African Gold Group: Recent Dumping Of Junior Mining Shares By Pinetree Capital Provides A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    As expected the revised feasibility came in and in the case of the 5000tpd plan the numbers were lower but still very respectable. This remains one of the highest rate of return gold projects in the world yet in the cases of the other competing high return projects the market caps are pretty close to their 5% discounted NPV. The price here even with today's upside still trades at a significant discount on that measure.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John B. Sanfilippo & Son Is A Strong Buy For Long Term Investors [View article]
    Congrats to the longs here I should have kept my profit shares in stock instead of cashing out in the mid 20s.

    This stock is clearly being valued much differently than historically as it always in the past would put a valuation lid at .3 times sales even when profits were rising.


    Either it is a premium being put here based upon the lack of consistent corporate earnings in the universe of stocks where JBSS has consistently improved numbers or this company is being revalued for its consistent margins which had been elusive from either the company's moves or macro conditions of "shortages" in food commodities allowing price stabilization in weaker segments from substitution.
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Nevsun Resources Earnings [View article]
    When NSU spoke in the past they were open to Au Cu and Zn projects. Nothing in Cu is really off of the charts in economics. Of all of the metals I think it is overvalued in comparison and price manipulated. Most of the high grade projects are in the DRC and Zambia but the value added taxes really takes away the appeal of them. I was surprised how low the profitability of Mawson West when they were processing 2000 tpd of open pit 6% Cu with a 6oz /ton Ag byproduct.

    In terms of grade I like Ivanhoe's Kipushi project but again its in the DRC and highly doubt it is for sale at an attractive price.

    My parameters for a decent project is at least a 50% IRR and a discounted NPV about 200% or more than the capex. Bisha is one of very few mines that met this parameter.

    I think the surprise is how NSU avoided an approach by a larger player as cash will be king in this sector as it continues to struggle and their financial strength poses some threat.
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blonder Tongue: Starting To Realize Its Potential [View article]
    Richard a very nice call and congrats I know this stock has the value parameters I definitely like but a word of caution literally it would be a first in 20 years if they can string three quarters together of sequential profit improvement off of a strong number. Just in case this is a first time hopefully you were able to to take your cost out of the stock towards the top of today's range while you have the volume to do so but if they do meet this elusive parameter its off to the races with this one.

    A stock price this low and with such a small float I usually have a greater return expectation for it and the past few times I attempted to invest here off of a new product cycle conditions were much too short and it didn't end up well at all.
    Nov 14, 2014. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Aims At U.S. Fracking Industry, Hits Its Own Foot [View article]
    The price of oil have ignored these underlying oversupply fundamentals for quite a few years. Most of the fracking industry is now better than 50% hedged for their production at much higher prices for years out and have significantly reduced break even costs into the $60s/bbl so Saudi Arabia will have to undergo a major long term campaign of overproduction to make any major dent.

    I totally agree this price fall is being manipulated to finally reflect supply fundamentals is really intended to damage Putin's rogue foreign policy and damaging his economy.
    Nov 12, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blonder Tongue: Starting To Realize Its Potential [View article]
    I will give you much credit for your contrarian stance but historically BDR still showed lumpiness in sales during past new product introductions and there always have been an issue of the carrying value of its inventory on its balance sheet and I hate to admit Luksch can't even run his personal finances and has always been a seller of shares in the market which is a drag on price momentum. However, your expectations of 50% is a very reasonable one on a low priced thinly traded stock which could easily be manipulated as such if the conditions warrant so.

    It will be interesting if this firm will be able to string 3 consecutive quarters of sequential improvement which has always been elusive here. If they are able to achieve this your 50% return expectation is much too low.
    Nov 12, 2014. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods Inc.: 3 Trends To Watch [View article]
    Excellent article CALM's volumes and historical oversupply with strong pricing is benefiting from consumer substitution of severely overpriced meat products and much lower feed costs of corn and the Chinese embargo of DDGs. So I believe you are under a relatively short window of nirvana macro conditions here and a quarter or two of continued of now seasonal and conditional strength.

    The stock price has reacted accordingly to its ability to sequentially improve earnings. I believe when the beef inventory cycle is nearing normal footing I think conditions will return to normalcy as well as its stock price.
    Nov 6, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Integra Gold: Ending Of Lock Up Period Could Provide Buying Opportunity [View article]
    There are two operational risks here the time spent with development ore and mining dilution which seems to be prevalent in the region. Even though we are dealing with using higher head grades on average about 2-3 g/ton higher these two issues have to still be mitigated for this operation to work well in this lower priced environment. This milling complex would have not seen 2 bankruptcies in the last 10 years if these operational issues had not plagued them.
    Nov 4, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Nevsun Resources Earnings [View article]
    Urgen I used to be a SLVC investor but sold my position in Nov. 2012. I never rebought. I believe Ben Kramer-Miller has a very accurate opinion on the stock.

    The new production addition is marginal yet this stock still trades at a premium. The defensive flavor of its heap leach money machine mine has been greatly diluted IMO. You really need a turnaround in pricing for this to shine again

    I think CRJ.TO has become the winning defensive small cap precious metals producer at least in terms of value and strength of operations.
    Nov 4, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • African Gold Group: Recent Dumping Of Junior Mining Shares By Pinetree Capital Provides A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    This is a very misunderstood project IMO as most people just focus on grades. It is the only potential relatively low capex project of very large scale solely using gravity recoveries in the world. I understand the technical and political risks but it is hard to ignore on paper this project is discounted to only about 2 1/2% of its discounted NPV at $1100 gold and shows an IRR at 91%.

    My big qualm with it is the attractiveness of the project will diminish somewhat if the project doesn't fully use the 5 year tax holiday which the case at 20000tpd demonstrates. In no way will AGG be able to initially produce this at 20000tpd and the later expansion potential questionable as the potential return gets hacked by 30% after the tax holiday.
    Nov 4, 2014. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
188 Comments
56 Likes