FIFOkid

Cashing In on the Haynesville Shale Hoopla

I happen to like the prospects for CXPO with its potential reserve growth. From my research another well from another company was recently drilled in the same county that flowed 21 MMcf/day in addition to their 31 MMcf in early November so I think the exploration risk here is very low with very prolific gas flows.


I feel as long as the company is in a financial position to continue drilling exploration wells which can be perpetuated for many years by forward selling into this gas market with huge contango built in the stock price woes here should reverse on the expected positive newsflow.

The Secret to Success at SilverCrest Mines: Dedication to Details

In my analysis of this stock I agree this project is above average and modestly undervalued but there certainly are some hidden detractors like the high stripping ratio, a portion of the project being completed at a later stage (capex and feasibility risk ), poor recovery rates in the oxide formations which is likely due to a high clay content of the ore and most of all the really punitive terms of their financing with Sandstorm Resources.

Forced to sell 20% ALL of their gold production at prices very close to their cash costs is a major detractor here especially if cash costs should happen to rise and there is an additional 55K oz forward sold at $926/oz which leaves very few ounces available to sell on the spot market. In an investment analysis one can be easily fooled by the very high rates of return on the project whereas the true average price received for gold will be $400-$500 under spot which is dangerous in the current environment of rising cash costs.

Investors here have to hope for average higher grades than the 43-101 which I will admit the probability is high given the recent infill drilling results and I feel there could be room for improvement in the recovery rate of their silver byproduct where the company gets to keep 100% of production.

Andrew Mickey: Are Markets Headed for a 25% Drop?

AM I agree with your comments on Nevsun. Not too many large projects can generate enough cash flow to pay off the debt within one year.

Peak Oil: Still Headed for a Train Wreck

Now we are changing the true definition of peak oil here. I don't have any disagreement the costs for deepwater and for that matter any exploration is going to be expensive but would the costs been that exorbitant if our currency had the same purchasing power from the 1960s

I hate to say but the strength of our currency is going to be a larger determinate in the price of all commodities moving forward.

Peak Oil: Still Headed for a Train Wreck

I can count 5 MB of current idled spare capacity right now without even adding another 5 MB addition from Iraq and this addition excludes the finds off the Santos Basin. So the IEA's105 MB I think is a realistic all time peak provided economic activity is in healthy shape.

Is Exxon Betting on $100 Oil?

The P50 recoverable at Jubilee now stands at 1 BB with P10 at 1.8 BB. with Kosmos owning 23.7% of the project

Addax recently received 17.50 per bbl for its P2 reserves in areas I see politically riskier than Ghana.

Jubilee IMO is worth at least

1BB *.237 = 237 MMbbls * 17.5= 4.147 bil. minus .500 capex left= 3.647

This number excludes the valuation of the natural gas and the upside from the two other proven areas Odum and Tweneboa and the other low risk prospects.

The big surprise here in this bid is XOM is interested in buying into this venture without assuming operatorship.

Sprott's Peter Hodson Likes Gravity

I tend to agree Sprott does pump and dump small caps. Timminco was his biggest pump from a penny stock into a mid $30 stock of which the company was really nothing. However, I will admit this stock even at its high of $2.62 is undervalued given the free cash on the balance sheet of $2.05/share and its peer group trades at 20 times earnings.

One comment on the last earnings report is the numbers were considerably an improvement from last year's comparable quarter. I will accept the CEOs seasonality reason for the lower earnings number in comparison to the prior quarter.

Jaguar Mining Top Pick of Junior Golds - Blackmont

Insiders are dumping because the stock does not necessarily have a cheap valuation anymore. The only thing going here is momentum.

I think the best value in the junior gold universe is Orvana Minerals where you are highly likely to get similar production volumes by Q4 of 2010 and are only paying 1/10th the market cap.

Western Lithium Stands to Profit from Electric Car Stimulus

Right now given the crazy momentum in the sector it is pretty easy all a junior miner has to do right now is to issue a press release and have the word lithium contained in it or have the word contained in its stock name and it will go higher. After these spetacular runs of those stocks (CLQ is up 20 fold from the low) I feel it is suicide to chase performance on speculation and hold these names long term knowing not one of those juniors has any cash flow nor the cash on their balance sheets to develop a property in a stingy debt market.

If I had to pick a junior name at this point with lithium exposure I would probably opt for Globestar Mining since they have never bothered to promote its lithium asset however, I feel the company may be forced to promote it given its poor operational results of its recently opened copper mine which was supposed to operate at only 40 cent cash costs.

Sprott's Peter Hodson Likes Gravity

I happen to think the risk/reward for GRVY is also excellent.

Mining Sector: Q2 Earnings Should Help Ward Off Summer Slump

FCX is a good stock to own if you want maintain liquidity and if metals prices continue to surge higher. The main visible risk here is the new terms of the renegotiation of the T/F Mine in the DRC.

Capstone Mining IMO is a play to accumulate after the damage is done from a fast drop in metals and sector equity prices as it is best hedged for a bear market scenario. In this period of rising metals prices above their collars its earnings power will lag and explains the stock's recent underperformance.

HudBay is one to watch since it is in a great position to expand due to a massive cash hoard and the stock has greatly underperformed the sector. I think the major catalyst for the price of the stock will be reliant on what acquisition it will make and when it was made.

Teck Comico strategists almost bankrupted the company by overpaying for assets at a top in the cycle and what saved it was the fast rebound in commodity prices assets sales at a bottom and a debt restructuring.
After a more than 10 fold increase in the price of the stock since these huge blunders I would be happy enough with the generous increase in the stock.

Quadra's Mega-Project a Game Changer - Canaccord Adams

The only comment I will like to make here is Quadra IMO is the best run mining company in the world. They have been very effective at expanding assets at low points in the cycle and raising equity at highs.

Sprott Continues to Play Defense

I admire Sprott for what they have done in the past decade however, I feel they really blew it not calling for a rebound in the equity markets given the massive printing of money by governments worldwide with really no investment alternative remaining given extremely low interest rates.

If they maintained that March 31 portfolio intact the fund would have generated subpar returns since on balance gold/gold stocks underperformed and the shorts were generally in sectors that rebounded sharply. You have to place confidence that they were able to adjust their portfolio in time.

The Bullish Case for Copper

Copper Mountain has a nice property with great potential. The problem is the deep discount in the stock has vanished.


Globestar Mining WAS the value stock in the sector to own as it had higher grade nickel reserves than Xstrata only 8 km from their Falcondo operation with a decent portfolio of exploration prospects in the DR, a lithium asset they seem to never promote and a operating copper mine that was supposed to run at 40/lb cent cash costs but unfortunately the company since the start of the operation has been having major operational difficulties with their byproducts due to the high clay content in the ore at Cerro de Maimon. Recoveries of byproducts are way below bench tests and head grades are below what is reported in the 43-101 making it just another run of the mill small copper mine. Unless the company gets smart and begin to promote its lithium asset I feel the stock will at best be a market performer.

The quasi copper stock I feel has some decent upside going forward is Orvana Minerals whose market cap is below its free cash on its balance sheet. Its mainly promoted as a gold company but has a copper asset in Michigan with resources of 2.1 billion lbs in situ.

Four Reasons to Buy Sherritt - RBC

I definitely see the author's point in liking the stock if you take the same view that Teck Cominco rebounded so should Sherritt but it doesn't hide the fact they expanded at a top in a cycle.

I think the biggest risk here is the ballooning capex requirements in all HPAL nickel laterlite projects as the cost so far for Ambatovy have been totally out of control and the tight credit markets don't help out matters.