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  • The Oil And Solar Divergence Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    My observation is stock prices are blatantly politically manipulated in all directions many sectors impacted and it is much more obvious during this bull market. In the case for oil supply fundamentals were ignored for years until Putin became rogue. Gold prices were manipulated lower because it undermined the dollar. Coal as a fuel is anti EPA and as a result the industry is becoming obsolete. For profit education has been questioned on the viability of the effectiveness of student loan repayment and that sector has been decimated. OTOH companies that are pro government in aiding of their spying like FB near record highs.
    Apr 16, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John B. Sanfilippo: Severely Mispriced With Significant Near-Term Upside [View article]
    I still remain cautious because on a historical basis the stock price is well beyond all time highs on a price/sales ratio. If you look at the data typically the valuation would peak at .3 times sales in this commoditized business. So I think the sector is in a major bubble. On a comp basis this stock is cheap but herd investing is not my style.

    Obviously, these high valuations are due to the nirvana conditions in the food processing industry in general with low borrowing costs and the business has been able to maintain historically high margins from low commodity prices, shrinking their product sizes and very high selling prices using regional drought and shortages as an excuse for it even though it is very easy to procure commodities at low prices .
    Mar 30, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Afren Plc.: ~$112mm Of Equity Value About To Be Wiped Out [View article]
    I agree the stock is nearly worthless to current equity holders.

    They certainly did a super job covering up the fraud ongoing at this company with the non performing asset in Kurdistan where they actually paid a 30 million dollar donation/bribe just to get the concession and then hid the problem for quite some time. Past management bails out by creating a diversion of receiving payments and then the new management does really nothing by playing totally ignorant and in effect pardoned them when they paid back the slush money but the company never disclosed the scam of the nonperforming asset for years.

    I still don't know how they could burn through that much cash in just one quarter without any attempt to salvage the company at an earlier date and I am also still quite puzzled their hedge was also worth approximately 350 million was never monetized. It could at worst bought it could have bought them time to raise equity at a relatively decent price.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy EPS of $1.61 [View news story]
    Funny how numbers can be spinned. I highly doubt the consensus estimate included the value of the tax credit of $1/gallon. Value of the blenders credit is 95 million or 2.25/share. So the Q4 operating loss technically was approx 63 cents.

    Guidance for Q1 2015 is a 10-30 million dollar loss. .23-.69 loss range. So the company can tolerate 56 cent quarterly losses to break even assuming same rate of production.

    This really a quirky company to figure out from an investment end because operations are showing losses and then back ended to the blenders credit and the reason why this trades at such a discount to book value but I can see the appeal on any improvement on industry fundamentals if the BTC is expected.
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Nevsun Doubles The Size Of Its Indicated Resources, Inferred Resources Grow 18-Fold [View article]
    I am curious why you like GORO other than the ability to potentially receive your dividend in Au or Ag coins. The stock is not cheap and P/P reserves are like a year and a half. Even though they have potentially extended mine life with new drilling results AISCs are likely to substantially rise to get access to the new stopes provided it is economic to do so.

    With regard to NSU yes its peak earning years from Bisha are past them but it is likely going to perfectly time the zinc cycle.

    If you look at NSU on an EV basis however its future earnings remain heavily discounted with 14 years of open pittable mine life remaining excluding any potential from an underground operation which should start to become be delineated in 2015.

    I see you like GTE for its balance sheet strength think of NSU is the GTE of mining but even better yet pays you a return (dividend) to hold shares.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agnico Eagle Outperforms Gold Peers, Expects To Produce 12% More Gold In 2015 [View article]
    Assuming you are going to strictly stick with acceptable jurisdictions to AEM and gold only. Aura and Claude look ridiculously/comparati... cheap to me and both have turned around/restructured operations.

    Aura is expected to show a large impairment charge in Q1 but even with the charge the remaining book value is still going to be 50 cents a share. Its EV/EBITDA for 2015 at 1200 gold is less than 1 even with its carried debt load and the firm will be LT debt free in 2016.

    Claude should show net earnings of 10 cents a share US implying a 3 PE. Claude has outperformed AEM in 2014 since its recovery has been much more obvious and well under way for a few quarters.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agnico Eagle Outperforms Gold Peers, Expects To Produce 12% More Gold In 2015 [View article]
    I have never understood why this firm has not been aggressively acquisitive of smaller profitable one mine operations that show a consistent similar aisc cash cost profile using their stock as the medium of acquisition. No other gold miner receives such a rich premium .
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil supply will outpace demand for years, BP predicts [View news story]
    I agree this oversupply argument is stupid. Markets have always been in oversupply. Saudi Arabia always had trouble marketing heavier crudes and Cushing has been awash in oil which explains the 10-15% discount of gasoline prices in the midcontinent region.

    Prices have been rigged to stay artificially high for quite some time ignoring supply/ demand fundamentals to spur development of higher cost energies be it conventional or green .

    Oil prices in this instance were deliberately dropped for political reasons (to punish Putin's economy) that happened to become exacerbated by the convenience of this condition by Saudi Arabia's refusal to cut production to potentially curb additional development of marginally economic crude supply.

    Since it appears Putin is behaving for now I think prices will continue to slowly recover barring an economic depression lurking on the horizon.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nevsun Resources: Substantial Upside In Eritrea With A Huge Margin Of Safety [View article]
    This is also my largest mining position. Solid balance sheet and one of very few companies financially able to capitalize on the woes in the sector.

    Can't quibble holding when you can buy shares at or below book value at a decent yield.

    Other than a few minor tactical issues I disagree with management like Davis' comparatively high compensation, the lack of mine diversification and lack of hedging this company is the Ferrari of one mine operations given its quality.

    For one I am not a big bull in copper because the subsector has enjoyed prices above all in costs until very recently. Cu producers hasn't undergone any long term pain and suffering endemic of the other metals. Zn for instance it has been long 7 years the price has been below the P50 cash costs until this year.

    I also believe most of the state Chinese buying is being stockpiled off the books as a hedge against the dollar and not being consumed.
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Aura Minerals Continues To Turn Around - Q3 Results Were Very Strong [View article]
    Tim since you have much influence in the board room why not suggest a share buy back should the share price stagnate. Shutting down their achilles heel in Aranzazu and was the event for my investment dollars. At $1200 gold they should now generate 42.7 million in annual EBITDA and at $1300 gold the number rises to 54 million in annual EBITDA with their hedge kicking in at $1206 at their low end of production guidance and high end of cash costs.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Aura Minerals Reports Strong Production At San Andres [View article]
    I have been a recent buyer of shares on the same premise of anticipated forward valuation at current prices of approximately 1 time EV/EBITDA which is very cheap IMO.

    I am also hoping the industry guidance remains conservative and has tempered the positive impact of lower oil prices in expectations.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koven: Many reasons for takeover interest in Nevsun, and one big negative [View news story]
    The Eritrea issue is really overblown other than for a great opportunity to scale into the company. I think the risk of a nationalistic communist coup is zero. Arabs don't believe in communism. A coup with a capitalistic doctrine will continue to honor the lease. Centamin Egypt had a similar regime change twice in a period of 2 years and the company is still intact and the stock is about the same price it was before all of the political changes and this is under fundamentals with much lower gold prices.

    The bigger fear is the EPA in good ol' USA. It has virtually dismantled the coal industry to nonexistence.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ethanol Company REX American Resources Severely Undervalued On Solid, Growing Earnings [View article]
    No arguments about the company I agree it is the best run fuel grade ethanol producer and gives you the most leverage in the sector with its small float. When common sense prevails this stock is very oversold and has not reflected any of the 33% recovery in ethanol prices off of the October lows bucking the trend for other finished energy commodities. No one is paying attention to this at the moment and is myoptically focused on the crude bottom from a trading perspective for the potential of a strong January effect on the E&Ps.

    But I have a serious doubt there will be new high in the next 52 weeks for the stock. A cyclical market can be very fickle unless everything goes right for it. Although margins theoretically can improve and hit new records on stable volumes however, if gross ethanol prices do not eclypse the last cycle high I see little hope for a new high during this bullish cycle from experience. I also highly doubt if they can materially expand volumes with the current price for wholesale unleaded as I know a few states have eliminated the mandate under those conditions in the past.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mawson West Trades At 1x 2015 Cash Flow With A Clear Catalyst In Sight [View article]
    Well you can now buy this at the "bargain" price of 2 cents CDN now and it looks like more dilution is in the cards at this price range and I am sure a bunch of warrants will be attached to it.

    Apparently you were wrong in believing the snake oil salesmen here. I learned my painful lesson when the Dikulushi open pit project serially disappointed and generated profits nowhere near original expectations and moved on. Now they are experiencing mining dilution issues with the underground mine.

    In addition, the recent 43-101 at Kapulo did everything to mislead you. If you note the 10% NPV figure did not even include capex costs and used a copper price 10% higher than the current than it is currently in its calculation which is a first. I think at this price level the mine is going to operate very close to all in costs which implies there is no equity gain to the shareholder on that project.

    Dec 9, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • African Gold Group: Recent Dumping Of Junior Mining Shares By Pinetree Capital Provides A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    As expected the revised feasibility came in and in the case of the 5000tpd plan the numbers were lower but still very respectable. This remains one of the highest rate of return gold projects in the world yet in the cases of the other competing high return projects the market caps are pretty close to their 5% discounted NPV. The price here even with today's upside still trades at a significant discount on that measure.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment