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FIFOkid

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  • Update: Nevsun Doubles The Size Of Its Indicated Resources, Inferred Resources Grow 18-Fold [View article]
    I am curious why you like GORO other than the ability to potentially receive your dividend in Au or Ag coins. The stock is not cheap and P/P reserves are like a year and a half. Even though they have potentially extended mine life with new drilling results AISCs are likely to substantially rise to get access to the new stopes provided it is economic to do so.

    With regard to NSU yes its peak earning years from Bisha are past them but it is likely going to perfectly time the zinc cycle.

    If you look at NSU on an EV basis however its future earnings remain heavily discounted with 14 years of open pittable mine life remaining excluding any potential from an underground operation which should start to become be delineated in 2015.

    I see you like GTE for its balance sheet strength think of NSU is the GTE of mining but even better yet pays you a return (dividend) to hold shares.
    Feb 20, 2015. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agnico Eagle Outperforms Gold Peers, Expects To Produce 12% More Gold In 2015 [View article]
    Assuming you are going to strictly stick with acceptable jurisdictions to AEM and gold only. Aura and Claude look ridiculously/comparati... cheap to me and both have turned around/restructured operations.

    Aura is expected to show a large impairment charge in Q1 but even with the charge the remaining book value is still going to be 50 cents a share. Its EV/EBITDA for 2015 at 1200 gold is less than 1 even with its carried debt load and the firm will be LT debt free in 2016.

    Claude should show net earnings of 10 cents a share US implying a 3 PE. Claude has outperformed AEM in 2014 since its recovery has been much more obvious and well under way for a few quarters.
    Feb 19, 2015. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agnico Eagle Outperforms Gold Peers, Expects To Produce 12% More Gold In 2015 [View article]
    I have never understood why this firm has not been aggressively acquisitive of smaller profitable one mine operations that show a consistent similar aisc cash cost profile using their stock as the medium of acquisition. No other gold miner receives such a rich premium .
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil supply will outpace demand for years, BP predicts [View news story]
    I agree this oversupply argument is stupid. Markets have always been in oversupply. Saudi Arabia always had trouble marketing heavier crudes and Cushing has been awash in oil which explains the 10-15% discount of gasoline prices in the midcontinent region.

    Prices have been rigged to stay artificially high for quite some time ignoring supply/ demand fundamentals to spur development of higher cost energies be it conventional or green .

    Oil prices in this instance were deliberately dropped for political reasons (to punish Putin's economy) that happened to become exacerbated by the convenience of this condition by Saudi Arabia's refusal to cut production to potentially curb additional development of marginally economic crude supply.

    Since it appears Putin is behaving for now I think prices will continue to slowly recover barring an economic depression lurking on the horizon.
    Feb 18, 2015. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nevsun Resources: Substantial Upside In Eritrea With A Huge Margin Of Safety [View article]
    This is also my largest mining position. Solid balance sheet and one of very few companies financially able to capitalize on the woes in the sector.

    Can't quibble holding when you can buy shares at or below book value at a decent yield.

    Other than a few minor tactical issues I disagree with management like Davis' comparatively high compensation, the lack of mine diversification and lack of hedging this company is the Ferrari of one mine operations given its quality.

    For one I am not a big bull in copper because the subsector has enjoyed prices above all in costs until very recently. Cu producers hasn't undergone any long term pain and suffering endemic of the other metals. Zn for instance it has been long 7 years the price has been below the P50 cash costs until this year.

    I also believe most of the state Chinese buying is being stockpiled off the books as a hedge against the dollar and not being consumed.
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Aura Minerals Continues To Turn Around - Q3 Results Were Very Strong [View article]
    Tim since you have much influence in the board room why not suggest a share buy back should the share price stagnate. Shutting down their achilles heel in Aranzazu and was the event for my investment dollars. At $1200 gold they should now generate 42.7 million in annual EBITDA and at $1300 gold the number rises to 54 million in annual EBITDA with their hedge kicking in at $1206 at their low end of production guidance and high end of cash costs.
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Aura Minerals Reports Strong Production At San Andres [View article]
    I have been a recent buyer of shares on the same premise of anticipated forward valuation at current prices of approximately 1 time EV/EBITDA which is very cheap IMO.

    I am also hoping the industry guidance remains conservative and has tempered the positive impact of lower oil prices in expectations.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Koven: Many reasons for takeover interest in Nevsun, and one big negative [View news story]
    The Eritrea issue is really overblown other than for a great opportunity to scale into the company. I think the risk of a nationalistic communist coup is zero. Arabs don't believe in communism. A coup with a capitalistic doctrine will continue to honor the lease. Centamin Egypt had a similar regime change twice in a period of 2 years and the company is still intact and the stock is about the same price it was before all of the political changes and this is under fundamentals with much lower gold prices.

    The bigger fear is the EPA in good ol' USA. It has virtually dismantled the coal industry to nonexistence.
    Dec 19, 2014. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ethanol Company REX American Resources Severely Undervalued On Solid, Growing Earnings [View article]
    No arguments about the company I agree it is the best run fuel grade ethanol producer and gives you the most leverage in the sector with its small float. When common sense prevails this stock is very oversold and has not reflected any of the 33% recovery in ethanol prices off of the October lows bucking the trend for other finished energy commodities. No one is paying attention to this at the moment and is myoptically focused on the crude bottom from a trading perspective for the potential of a strong January effect on the E&Ps.

    But I have a serious doubt there will be new high in the next 52 weeks for the stock. A cyclical market can be very fickle unless everything goes right for it. Although margins theoretically can improve and hit new records on stable volumes however, if gross ethanol prices do not eclypse the last cycle high I see little hope for a new high during this bullish cycle from experience. I also highly doubt if they can materially expand volumes with the current price for wholesale unleaded as I know a few states have eliminated the mandate under those conditions in the past.
    Dec 12, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mawson West Trades At 1x 2015 Cash Flow With A Clear Catalyst In Sight [View article]
    Well you can now buy this at the "bargain" price of 2 cents CDN now and it looks like more dilution is in the cards at this price range and I am sure a bunch of warrants will be attached to it.

    Apparently you were wrong in believing the snake oil salesmen here. I learned my painful lesson when the Dikulushi open pit project serially disappointed and generated profits nowhere near original expectations and moved on. Now they are experiencing mining dilution issues with the underground mine.

    In addition, the recent 43-101 at Kapulo did everything to mislead you. If you note the 10% NPV figure did not even include capex costs and used a copper price 10% higher than the current than it is currently in its calculation which is a first. I think at this price level the mine is going to operate very close to all in costs which implies there is no equity gain to the shareholder on that project.


    Dec 9, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • African Gold Group: Recent Dumping Of Junior Mining Shares By Pinetree Capital Provides A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    As expected the revised feasibility came in and in the case of the 5000tpd plan the numbers were lower but still very respectable. This remains one of the highest rate of return gold projects in the world yet in the cases of the other competing high return projects the market caps are pretty close to their 5% discounted NPV. The price here even with today's upside still trades at a significant discount on that measure.
    Nov 25, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John B. Sanfilippo & Son Is A Strong Buy For Long Term Investors [View article]
    Congrats to the longs here I should have kept my profit shares in stock instead of cashing out in the mid 20s.

    This stock is clearly being valued much differently than historically as it always in the past would put a valuation lid at .3 times sales even when profits were rising.


    Either it is a premium being put here based upon the lack of consistent corporate earnings in the universe of stocks where JBSS has consistently improved numbers or this company is being revalued for its consistent margins which had been elusive from either the company's moves or macro conditions of "shortages" in food commodities allowing price stabilization in weaker segments from substitution.
    Nov 19, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Nevsun Resources Earnings [View article]
    When NSU spoke in the past they were open to Au Cu and Zn projects. Nothing in Cu is really off of the charts in economics. Of all of the metals I think it is overvalued in comparison and price manipulated. Most of the high grade projects are in the DRC and Zambia but the value added taxes really takes away the appeal of them. I was surprised how low the profitability of Mawson West when they were processing 2000 tpd of open pit 6% Cu with a 6oz /ton Ag byproduct.

    In terms of grade I like Ivanhoe's Kipushi project but again its in the DRC and highly doubt it is for sale at an attractive price.

    My parameters for a decent project is at least a 50% IRR and a discounted NPV about 200% or more than the capex. Bisha is one of very few mines that met this parameter.

    I think the surprise is how NSU avoided an approach by a larger player as cash will be king in this sector as it continues to struggle and their financial strength poses some threat.
    Nov 14, 2014. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blonder Tongue: Starting To Realize Its Potential [View article]
    Richard a very nice call and congrats I know this stock has the value parameters I definitely like but a word of caution literally it would be a first in 20 years if they can string three quarters together of sequential profit improvement off of a strong number. Just in case this is a first time hopefully you were able to to take your cost out of the stock towards the top of today's range while you have the volume to do so but if they do meet this elusive parameter its off to the races with this one.

    A stock price this low and with such a small float I usually have a greater return expectation for it and the past few times I attempted to invest here off of a new product cycle conditions were much too short and it didn't end up well at all.
    Nov 14, 2014. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia Aims At U.S. Fracking Industry, Hits Its Own Foot [View article]
    The price of oil have ignored these underlying oversupply fundamentals for quite a few years. Most of the fracking industry is now better than 50% hedged for their production at much higher prices for years out and have significantly reduced break even costs into the $60s/bbl so Saudi Arabia will have to undergo a major long term campaign of overproduction to make any major dent.

    I totally agree this price fall is being manipulated to finally reflect supply fundamentals is really intended to damage Putin's rogue foreign policy and damaging his economy.
    Nov 12, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
193 Comments
58 Likes