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GJELOSH197

GJELOSH197
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  • Sirius, XM Complete Merger; Investors Still Blue [View article]
    everytime you keep writing about these stocks tyler, the stocks keep collapsing..do you understand since youve been writing about them, they are down each 70%...a bevy of your readers are IRATE considering your reckless journalism..i have come to the opinion that you are an absolute ignoramus!
    Jul 30 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Significant Value in Combined Siri/XM from Merger Synergies - Citi [View article]
    tyler youve been bullish on these stocks to the tune of a 60+ % loss on them since writing about them and posturing a bullish stance bereft of any common sense..WHO CARES ABOUT THESE GESTPO ANALYSTS WHO WRITE THEIR BULLSH***** BUY RATED REPORTS, because if they had ANY credibility THESE STOCKS WOULD GO UP and NOT continue to spiral LOWER and out of control and make 52 week lows!!! DO YOU ONCE CAST A JAUNDICED EYE AT ALL ON WHAT YOU RELAY TO YOUR READERS, IN TERMS OF THESE ASSANINE ANALYST REPORTS?? someone has a target of almost $7, but when sirius falls to sub $1, then that analyst wil cut the target to $1.75..you know the f**** game and we've seen it all...but i know youre not panicking that badly, you and your 10% overweight position on these stocks
    Jul 29 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple’s Samsung Order May Benefit SanDisk [View article]
    you said when sandisk was $28, he was definately a BUY! now at $13, its DANGEROUS?? wtf???
    Jul 23 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Georgetown Partners' Latest Radio Proposal Raises Many Questions [View article]
    tyler if youre 'supposedly neutral' on these stocks, THEN WHY DO YOU WRITE ABOUT THEM INCESSANTLY, ALWAYS NOTING AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR ARTICLES THAT YOU ARE 'LONG SIRI., LONG XMSR'!? you are an veritable LIAR!!!!!!!!!!!! you dont take account for you inaccuracy and stupidity...why dont you owe up to your readers..HOW MUCH MORE WILL THESE STOCKS HAVE TO FALL AS YOU CONTINUE YOUR 'LONG' POMP THESIS YOU LOW-LIFE!!!!!
    Jul 8 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Georgetown Partners' Latest Radio Proposal Raises Many Questions [View article]
    tyler you have been bullish on these stocks like an imbecile for 2 years and you have cost your readers dearly to the tune of 50%
    Jul 7 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Georgetown Partners' Latest Radio Proposal Raises Many Questions [View article]
    why ask tyler for anything since he recommended xm at almost $14..and its been cut in half..thanks for eradicating your readers investment monies you scoundrel! and i read that you only have ten percent in these stocks..you are unqualified to write anything about investments..maybe only comic books
    Jul 7 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SanDisk: Risk Down $3, Reward Up $30 [View article]
    avi what to make NOW of your 'DOWN 3, UP 30' SNDK thesis!!!??
    Jul 4 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sigma Better Designed for 2009 [View article]
    MICHAEL, HOW MUCH LOWER IS THIS DAMNED STOCK IN YOUR ESTIMATION GOING TO GO???????????
    Jun 30 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Did Satellite Stocks Head North Friday? [View article]

    Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing
    by: Mike Stathis posted on: June 29, 2008 | about stocks: MSFT / SIRI / SNE / XMSR / YHOO

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    I just wanted to make something clear with all this talk about satellite radio. I'll be blunt. It's going nowhere. That is why I haven't followed Sirius (SIRI) or XM (XMSR) for several years. Why waste my time when I know how the game will turn out?

    Let me explain. After releasing a research analysis on the sector in my newsletter in 2004-2005, I have not bothered to follow the satellite radio stocks because I already knew their longer-term fate. It's the same action I have taken on other companies that I predicted would go bankrupt or be sold on the cheap. And I have been right about all of them. It's not that I have a crystal ball or that I'm amazingly clever; it's just a matter of using some common sense combined with an understanding of business dynamics and competitive forces. I will summarize the main points of the 2004-2005 analysis I made on Sirius and the future of satellite radio:

    Sirius will not make it. It will either go under or be sold on the auction block. Why? The industry has poor business dynamics as a standalone. It has high churn, short retention, and high customer acquisition costs. Only a diversified company can remain in this business. The wireless providers realized the need to secure a certain level of guaranteed revenues and they came up with contracts. The satellite radio business has not structured any value into their business that would allow them to drive revenues on a contractual basis. As a result, revenues are highly uncertain and will remain volatile, while net revenues per subscriber have little room for growth due to the high churn.

    The enormous debt seen in Sirius and XM is just one indication of the poor business fundamentals of this quasi-sector. Just look at the profit and operating margins. These guys won't be able to turn a profit until they surpass 20 million subscribers. And that simply is not going to happen for a very long time if ever. As it stands today, Sirius is in much deeper trouble than XM. The company self-destructed by giving away most of its equity to its CEO and Howard Stern, as if the stock had little value.

    It turns out that it didn't have much value. Even Stern apparently realized this and sold his stock.

    While XM is fundamentally stronger and will emerge the winner, this won't last long. The big guys in media will force XM out when Internet is installed in autos which is coming in a few years. Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft (MSFT) and others will offer free Internet radio as a way to seize the market. Then they will offer a paid service similar to satellite. This will steal away the customer base of the satellite providers. In the meantime, earnings from their other business lines will enable them to endure difficult transitional periods. If needed, the big media players will create a price war which Sirius and XM will not survive.

    The only one's who will profit from Sirius are the CEO and Stern.

    Things are playing out just as I predicted. Soon you will see how even the XM-Sirius combined entity gets destroyed when Internet radio enters the scene. The only thing that has changed in the four years since my report is that Yahoo has weakened and may not go forward with an Internet radio platform, at least for a while. But you can bet others will. If you do not understand the media war that has been going on now for several years, you really need to get up to speed. The big players in this war are Microsoft, Sony (SNE), Yahoo, some of the telecom and cable providers. The XM-Sirius entity will ultimately have to go up against these guys and they aren't going to win.

    Now, will the combined XM-Sirius entity appreciate in price from here? I wouldn't doubt it. After all, many companies on a downward trend make short-term bounces. But that might only provide an exit for existing shareholders, as the odds of satellite radio surviving long-term are very slim. Internet radio is the future. And the only way satellite will play into the picture is through satellite-Internet radio, which will be a free service, with an optional paid service for no commercials. Once the paid service of XM-Sirius is knocked out, only then will the paid service model be a growing entity. And the only role XM-Sirius will play in this might be after being bought on the cheap by one of the big players.

    You can bet Sirius is desperate for this merger to go through because they realize they're on their last leg. It's similar to the situation with Blockbuster (BBI) practically bending over backwards to merge with Circuit City (CC). Unlike XM, Circuit City has something to offer-a real business with a long history of profits and no debt (only seasonal borrowing or inventories). You can probably tell how I feel about any possible Circuit City-Blockbuster deal. But that's another story.

    Only time will tell if I was completely right in my analysis. But one thing is for certain: those who read my report 4 years ago (quoted above) had a chance to bail out of XM and Sirius at $25 and $7 respectively.

    Sirius was never a stock held by a large percentage of institutions because they realized the risks. I continue to notice the same investors who buy terrible stocks like Sirius have a habit of buying trash like Krispy Kreme (KKD) and a host of others. People, if you really want to play this investment game, you need to start figuring out these things on your own. Otherwise, leave the investing game to the pros because the really sharp guys out there know what's going on and they sure aren't going to tell you. And you cannot count on Wall Street to help you. While the Goldman analyst is dead right, I find it remarkable it took him so many years to issue this report. I'm not sure whether he just isn't that bright or his focus was on landing banking business. Most likely, it was the former since I still have not read any report that provides the insight I have.

    Wall Street makes sure investors have a misguided sense of reality by issuing so many "Buy" ratings. Everywhere you look you see "experts" talk about how good it is to invest in the stock market but you never hear timely warnings when you should get out and wait for the next bull market. The refusal of Wall Street and those who control the media to even hint that there might be a period of a few years when you should stay out of the market is the reason why most investors get caught in bear markets.

    Going forward, if you want to have a chance as an investor you're really going to need to change this mentality. Otherwise, the "do-it-yourself" approach is going to result in a disaster for many. Remember, the promoters of this fantasy – the online brokers – are just as guilty of this deceit as Wall Street. And they are making profits selling you this epiphany. So you might be better off buying ETFs.

    Disclosure: None
    Jun 30 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where’s the Bottom for Satellite Radio Stocks? [View article]
    tyler, NICE GOING on xmsr and siris from your bullish call!!! 50% of your bullish stance... NOONE HERE SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO YOU!!!!!
    Jun 26 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cowen Slams Goldman on Radio Stocks Analysis [View article]
    tyler you dont have to patronize me..to make this as simplistic as possible, various research reports abound (which you know oftentimes are bulls**********..look at the wasteland of stocks out there imploded from their lifetime highs), you, as a board writer, are supposed to ferret out the good from the bad and make an informed decision on behalf of your readers..are you supposed to sell these stocks now at goldmans urging now that the stocks have been hammered to oblivion? thats stealing; taking ppls money after a precipitous fall...all along, for the past year +, you have been disclosing 'long siri, xm' in spite of disparate news on the space..do you not think citi $9 i assanine considering that the stock did not trade up but rather down on the news? bottom line, market speaks and the satellite guys breaching 2 year lows speak volumes..you should have spoken about caveats such as the fact that they are bleeding red ink for the foreseeable future - the next 3 years..they are beholden to the whims of the market..something tells me theres an inherent problem here..these stocks were in the context of a 2 year long downtrending channel..so basically anyone who bought on your articles invariably would go down..its not your fault- you dont control the market..but you should have remained skeptical on the stock side near term- even though you may be bullish longer term..becuase if indeed you were that overtly bullish, you would have loaded up harder than the 10% you have..where is 'support' on these stocks from here? xm and siri almost cut in HALF from the end of last year..and thats in spite of its precipitious drop from a few years back..so basically, we have bought into a falling knife..yea wish me and us luck because we are going to need it
    Jun 24 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Radio Merger Outcome About Two Weeks Away [View article]
    xmsr and siri which tyler is both long, are both in danger of breaking their 52 week lows...they are not going to be profitable for another 3 years..WHY is the smart money apparently so bearish on the damned companies in light of martins approval?? I JUST DONT GET IT; tyler thoughts?
    Jun 18 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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