Respirate's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/213020/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174028-marc-farber-gold-will-never-fall-below-1-000-again?source=feed#comment-765264 765264
... maybe not if you're omniscient like Faber.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:39:07 -0500
... maybe not if you're omniscient like Faber.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/353266-justin-m-hall/34703-spectrum-sppi-and-ariad-aria-pharma-are-you-paying-attention?source=feed#comment-750044 750044
Looking forward to hearing more about Ariad (as well as SPPI). Can you suggest some sources to learn more about Ariad?

I'm usually reluctant be invest in biotech and small pharma. They tend to swing violently on events that are not well publicized and difficult to monitor. Any advice is appreciated, and from following your posts @ SA I believe that you're a trustworthy guy.

Thanks.
Long SPPI]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 14:54:55 -0500
Looking forward to hearing more about Ariad (as well as SPPI). Can you suggest some sources to learn more about Ariad?

I'm usually reluctant be invest in biotech and small pharma. They tend to swing violently on events that are not well publicized and difficult to monitor. Any advice is appreciated, and from following your posts @ SA I believe that you're a trustworthy guy.

Thanks.
Long SPPI]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170852-spectrum-pharma-cms-rules-in-favor-of-zevalin?source=feed#comment-742409 742409
Are you buying shares prior to the earnings announcement? (ie, confident of positive news?)

-- R
Long.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:26:41 -0500
Are you buying shares prior to the earnings announcement? (ie, confident of positive news?)

-- R
Long.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168775-more-reasons-to-break-the-plastic-habit?source=feed#comment-730547 730547 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:59:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166396-why-intels-earnings-don-t-signify-u-s-recovery?source=feed#comment-714703 714703 Wed, 14 Oct 2009 07:20:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166377-marc-faber-dollar-weakness-a-symptom-of-inflation-in-the-system?source=feed#comment-714681 714681
That in a deflationary environment gold retains value better then some other commodities is welcome and no surprise, but is largely irrelevant because as he clearly states, "inflation is the system" as evidenced by the chronically weak USD.

discl.: long gold E&P companies]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 06:38:17 -0400
That in a deflationary environment gold retains value better then some other commodities is welcome and no surprise, but is largely irrelevant because as he clearly states, "inflation is the system" as evidenced by the chronically weak USD.

discl.: long gold E&P companies]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/353266-justin-m-hall/31093-update-10-9-09?source=feed#comment-711047 711047
The author Mr Hall would do a service to novice investors by including such advice when discussing stocks like SPPI.

Long SPPI & still holding a modest position. ]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:34:26 -0400
The author Mr Hall would do a service to novice investors by including such advice when discussing stocks like SPPI.

Long SPPI & still holding a modest position. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/353266-justin-m-hall/31093-update-10-9-09?source=feed#comment-710875 710875
SuperPiker, why did you post this sad little blurb with no explanation?
If your portfolio is so weak that it is destroyed by a single speculative stock falling 18%, you shouldn't be investing in stocks ... or anything else for that matter. Invest in S&P proxy ETFs or US Savings Bonds until you learn that equity markets are not a safe place to play. You have to know what you're doing. Grow up. ]]> Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:18:47 -0400
SuperPiker, why did you post this sad little blurb with no explanation?
If your portfolio is so weak that it is destroyed by a single speculative stock falling 18%, you shouldn't be investing in stocks ... or anything else for that matter. Invest in S&P proxy ETFs or US Savings Bonds until you learn that equity markets are not a safe place to play. You have to know what you're doing. Grow up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165479-buy-and-hold-isn-t-dead-yet?source=feed#comment-708302 708302
I must question your choice of Aetna in your investment group. They may be profitable and investable (yes to both), but Aetna is the kind of health insurer you hope others do NOT emulate. As a healthcare administrator and provider I can say Aetna is the poster child for poor operational performance on behalf of both health providers and the insured. Just an ugly company to deal with - there are better choices in this sector.

I'd also suggest Conoco Philips COP as a well-run buy and hold substitute for BP. COP is poised to drastically increase earnings when NG demand rises in step with a gradually improving economy. COP recently announced a 6% increase to an already generous dividend, coupled with the sale of $10B of productive assets to improve its balance sheet.

Discl.: Long COP]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 07:31:38 -0400
I must question your choice of Aetna in your investment group. They may be profitable and investable (yes to both), but Aetna is the kind of health insurer you hope others do NOT emulate. As a healthcare administrator and provider I can say Aetna is the poster child for poor operational performance on behalf of both health providers and the insured. Just an ugly company to deal with - there are better choices in this sector.

I'd also suggest Conoco Philips COP as a well-run buy and hold substitute for BP. COP is poised to drastically increase earnings when NG demand rises in step with a gradually improving economy. COP recently announced a 6% increase to an already generous dividend, coupled with the sale of $10B of productive assets to improve its balance sheet.

Discl.: Long COP]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165343-is-microsoft-s-bing-losing-its-bling?source=feed#comment-707321 707321
2. "You will need 20 gigs of free disk space for the upgrade, which will put it out of reach of many laptops." Most modern laptops have ample space to accommodate 20 gb.

3. "... still using the antiquated XP operating system ... ." XP is hardly antiquated, and is preferred by knowledgeable users and businesses to Vista.

4. Mad Hedge's comments begin with a focus on Win-7, but he piles on about what a pain installation is when he can't find installation disks and product keys. Since when is poor housekeeping Microsoft's problem?

Take his advice with a grain of salt. Listen to tech professionals you can trust. ]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:30:18 -0400
2. "You will need 20 gigs of free disk space for the upgrade, which will put it out of reach of many laptops." Most modern laptops have ample space to accommodate 20 gb.

3. "... still using the antiquated XP operating system ... ." XP is hardly antiquated, and is preferred by knowledgeable users and businesses to Vista.

4. Mad Hedge's comments begin with a focus on Win-7, but he piles on about what a pain installation is when he can't find installation disks and product keys. Since when is poor housekeeping Microsoft's problem?

Take his advice with a grain of salt. Listen to tech professionals you can trust. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165082-s-p-500-testing-downtrend?source=feed#comment-705100 705100 Tue, 06 Oct 2009 11:29:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162828-the-sensationalist-wsj?source=feed#comment-686819 686819 Tue, 22 Sep 2009 19:29:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161952-time-to-invest-in-tech-stocks?source=feed#comment-680370 680370 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 06:43:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161008-procter-gamble-projecting-a-resumption-of-organic-growth?source=feed#comment-672584 672584
-R
long PG shares]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:53:00 -0400
-R
long PG shares]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159996-amedisys-a-great-short-term-trading-opportunity?source=feed#comment-662003 662003
It may be good for the longer term, until "investors regain their confidence". Some analysts opine that it was due for a pullback in light of the price nearly doubling from Mar09 lows, a powerful move for a company in this sector. Uncertainty regarding future Medicare reimbursement rates (also the basis for insurer rates) may also hold it back for a time. Still, this may be an attractive entry point.

Thanks again for the good information. -- R]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 12:43:13 -0400
It may be good for the longer term, until "investors regain their confidence". Some analysts opine that it was due for a pullback in light of the price nearly doubling from Mar09 lows, a powerful move for a company in this sector. Uncertainty regarding future Medicare reimbursement rates (also the basis for insurer rates) may also hold it back for a time. Still, this may be an attractive entry point.

Thanks again for the good information. -- R]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159996-amedisys-a-great-short-term-trading-opportunity?source=feed#comment-661877 661877
The fact that analysts have raised earnings guidance is somewhat irrelevant, as so many of them simply echo words from the companies they cover. Agree that the 9/7 presentation could bump the share price.

I hope you do very well with it. I don't trust management at Amedisys and will pass. Thanks again.

-- R No current AMED pos'n. ]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:42:32 -0400
The fact that analysts have raised earnings guidance is somewhat irrelevant, as so many of them simply echo words from the companies they cover. Agree that the 9/7 presentation could bump the share price.

I hope you do very well with it. I don't trust management at Amedisys and will pass. Thanks again.

-- R No current AMED pos'n. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159996-amedisys-a-great-short-term-trading-opportunity?source=feed#comment-661561 661561
The steep decline in the share price due to the departures was exacerbated by seeds planted previously. A year ago (8/08) CitronResearch reported the following: "Citron has been interviewing Amedisys’s former employees in an attempt to confirm or disprove the implications of accounting red flags. The results were startling. Some points that were consistently reported by former employees:
- Amedisys pressured employees to manipulate OASIS scores in order to increase billings.
- Local offices would receive calls from headquarters to influence the scores on Medicare patients. (to justify higher billing).
- The billing system is set up for failure and there are no checks and balances. "

I wish you well on this as a short term play, but this company's accounting (and the questionable history of at least one corporate officer) makes many investors distinctly uncomfortable. ]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:10:23 -0400
The steep decline in the share price due to the departures was exacerbated by seeds planted previously. A year ago (8/08) CitronResearch reported the following: "Citron has been interviewing Amedisys’s former employees in an attempt to confirm or disprove the implications of accounting red flags. The results were startling. Some points that were consistently reported by former employees:
- Amedisys pressured employees to manipulate OASIS scores in order to increase billings.
- Local offices would receive calls from headquarters to influence the scores on Medicare patients. (to justify higher billing).
- The billing system is set up for failure and there are no checks and balances. "

I wish you well on this as a short term play, but this company's accounting (and the questionable history of at least one corporate officer) makes many investors distinctly uncomfortable. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156694-preview-from-europe-the-bear-comes-to-town?source=feed#comment-658425 658425 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 12:07:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159441-baker-hughes-plus-bj-services-doing-some-simple-math?source=feed#comment-657380 657380
I agree with you that the deal is a good fit for both companies. When the market threw a minor tantrum when the deal was announced, it provided a better opportunity (by nearly 10%) to those of us with cash in hand.

I've been holding onto the opposite end of the deal, namely BHI. Hopefully the addition of BJ Services will integrate some significant earnings potential before the next spike in oil.

For another SA take on the BHI-BJS deal:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Thanks again.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 18:28:07 -0400
I agree with you that the deal is a good fit for both companies. When the market threw a minor tantrum when the deal was announced, it provided a better opportunity (by nearly 10%) to those of us with cash in hand.

I've been holding onto the opposite end of the deal, namely BHI. Hopefully the addition of BJ Services will integrate some significant earnings potential before the next spike in oil.

For another SA take on the BHI-BJS deal:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Thanks again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158829-unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions?source=feed#comment-650392 650392 Thanks for the rational message that the sky, again, isn't falling. ]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 06:17:39 -0400 Thanks for the rational message that the sky, again, isn't falling. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/162115-tom-armistead/21030-ttm-technologies-close-to-target-taking-profits?source=feed#comment-616600 616600
I really like TTMI and the way they run their business. The stock is very volatile, making it a good combination to buy very low and ride it up.

Where we differ is in expectations -- I look for it to rise another 50% in the coming 6-12 months. It will undoubtedly go lower in the meantime, but as a good company is safe to hold through the drop.

-- R]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:28:51 -0400
I really like TTMI and the way they run their business. The stock is very volatile, making it a good combination to buy very low and ride it up.

Where we differ is in expectations -- I look for it to rise another 50% in the coming 6-12 months. It will undoubtedly go lower in the meantime, but as a good company is safe to hold through the drop.

-- R]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153677-the-anti-mechanic-act-of-2009-hurts-autozone-and-o-reilly-automotive?source=feed#comment-615108 615108 Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:20:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150176-u-s-commercial-real-estate-prices-down-7-6-in-may?source=feed#comment-596761 596761 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:21:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148911-behavior-of-industrial-commodities-is-for-real?source=feed#comment-588676 588676 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 07:42:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146207-why-i-m-still-drawn-to-bjs-services?source=feed#comment-583388 583388
Taking another look at the chart data shows that the 2001 NG price spike correlates well with the marked decrease in the number of producing wells, and was preceded by a drastic cut in rig count. The current drop in rig count is even more significant than 2001 on a percentage basis, but it also looks like we have a higher base to work off before the slack is taken up.

However, there's one more item that may or not be a factor: capped "new" wells. The huge drilling activity from 2006-08 created a corresponding increase in new high productivity wells, but many of those were taken out of production, where they presumably wouldn't show up in the "producing" well numbers. If that's the case, there will be an additional lag of a least a year between work-off of surplus supply and a pickup in drilling activity, with a softer rise when it does ramp up. My thought is that the current slowdown for land drillers, field service providers, and well equipment & supply manufacturers could lag much longer than we (investors) would like -- well into mid-2011.

If you can snag a chart for the 2008 "producing wells" data, thanks in advance. I was unable to find the 30 June 09 data, and would like to compare the extent of increase in producing wells.

Regards -- R]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:37:34 -0400
Taking another look at the chart data shows that the 2001 NG price spike correlates well with the marked decrease in the number of producing wells, and was preceded by a drastic cut in rig count. The current drop in rig count is even more significant than 2001 on a percentage basis, but it also looks like we have a higher base to work off before the slack is taken up.

However, there's one more item that may or not be a factor: capped "new" wells. The huge drilling activity from 2006-08 created a corresponding increase in new high productivity wells, but many of those were taken out of production, where they presumably wouldn't show up in the "producing" well numbers. If that's the case, there will be an additional lag of a least a year between work-off of surplus supply and a pickup in drilling activity, with a softer rise when it does ramp up. My thought is that the current slowdown for land drillers, field service providers, and well equipment & supply manufacturers could lag much longer than we (investors) would like -- well into mid-2011.

If you can snag a chart for the 2008 "producing wells" data, thanks in advance. I was unable to find the 30 June 09 data, and would like to compare the extent of increase in producing wells.

Regards -- R]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148137-carbo-ceramics-value-plus-volatility?source=feed#comment-583356 583356
"Now, if instead of just drilling the well vertically I turned and drilled it out horizontally through the rock, then the hole would now have the 10,000 psi squeezing down vertically, and the 3,000 psi coming in from the side. So the first thought that we have is that the casing (the lining that we put into the hole to make sure that it stays open) has to be a bit stronger. Life gets, however, a bit more complicated than that. "
bittooth.blogspot.com/...

The increasing use of horizontal drilling through the huge shale formations (Barnett, Bakken, Marcellus, Haynesville) likely increases the use of high strength ceramic premium proppants -- that bodes well for Carbo.

That Halliburton locked in multiyear supplies presumably at current discounted prices tells us that they expect the proppant price to increase in the future -- late 2010- 2011 is my estimate.

Best -- R]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 09:26:33 -0400
"Now, if instead of just drilling the well vertically I turned and drilled it out horizontally through the rock, then the hole would now have the 10,000 psi squeezing down vertically, and the 3,000 psi coming in from the side. So the first thought that we have is that the casing (the lining that we put into the hole to make sure that it stays open) has to be a bit stronger. Life gets, however, a bit more complicated than that. "
bittooth.blogspot.com/...

The increasing use of horizontal drilling through the huge shale formations (Barnett, Bakken, Marcellus, Haynesville) likely increases the use of high strength ceramic premium proppants -- that bodes well for Carbo.

That Halliburton locked in multiyear supplies presumably at current discounted prices tells us that they expect the proppant price to increase in the future -- late 2010- 2011 is my estimate.

Best -- R]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148137-carbo-ceramics-value-plus-volatility?source=feed#comment-582626 582626
CRR looks like an attractive play on the depressed NG prices and the prospect of future increases in drilling, hence well services, in shale formations. I'd be concerned about the 3@78% customer base concentration, but the long term agreement with HAL helps that, along with limited competition.

Frankly I have very limited understanding of options trading, so I'll place an initial position order to go long the stock at what I consider an attractive price.

Thanks again. --R]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:17:14 -0400
CRR looks like an attractive play on the depressed NG prices and the prospect of future increases in drilling, hence well services, in shale formations. I'd be concerned about the 3@78% customer base concentration, but the long term agreement with HAL helps that, along with limited competition.

Frankly I have very limited understanding of options trading, so I'll place an initial position order to go long the stock at what I consider an attractive price.

Thanks again. --R]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147955-t-boone-pickens-epic-wind-fail?source=feed#comment-581858 581858 Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:05:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148026-the-pickens-plan-where-are-we-one-year-later?source=feed#comment-581828 581828
It will take a long term vision and supportive national policy initiatives beyond the immediate gratification focus of market trading to be able to exploit all abundant domestic resources in a timely manner. There's no need to wait for a crisis to develop.

Contributor Michael Fitzsimmons has carried that banner for some time. As you both state, "the fundamental realities of worldwide oil supply/demand are the biggest threat to the United States economy" and our national security. While precise numbers concerning reserves, consumption rates, and years of supply are debatable, the need has been well established by Pickens and others.

Discl: Long CLNE and several companies in the NG E&P / supply chain. ]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:09:23 -0400
It will take a long term vision and supportive national policy initiatives beyond the immediate gratification focus of market trading to be able to exploit all abundant domestic resources in a timely manner. There's no need to wait for a crisis to develop.

Contributor Michael Fitzsimmons has carried that banner for some time. As you both state, "the fundamental realities of worldwide oil supply/demand are the biggest threat to the United States economy" and our national security. While precise numbers concerning reserves, consumption rates, and years of supply are debatable, the need has been well established by Pickens and others.

Discl: Long CLNE and several companies in the NG E&P / supply chain. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147517-does-the-world-need-google-s-operating-system?source=feed#comment-579161 579161
I've found Chrome, the browser, to be not only fast, but also rock solid stable -- most surprising given that it's new. It's also a feat never achieved by Microsoft in anything.

What concerns me most about web-centric computing is durability and availability. Despite its robust and redundant structure, the internet links can fail at many places between an individual station and the destination software application sites. Will it be available when you must do something?

Intentional attack is one of multiple vulnerabilities:
This today: "The powerful attack that overwhelmed computers at U.S. and South Korean government agencies for days was even broader than initially realized, also targeting the White House, the Pentagon and the New York Stock Exchange. Other targets of the attack included the National Security Agency, Homeland Security Department, State Department, the Nasdaq stock market ...".

--R]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:32:42 -0400
I've found Chrome, the browser, to be not only fast, but also rock solid stable -- most surprising given that it's new. It's also a feat never achieved by Microsoft in anything.

What concerns me most about web-centric computing is durability and availability. Despite its robust and redundant structure, the internet links can fail at many places between an individual station and the destination software application sites. Will it be available when you must do something?

Intentional attack is one of multiple vulnerabilities:
This today: "The powerful attack that overwhelmed computers at U.S. and South Korean government agencies for days was even broader than initially realized, also targeting the White House, the Pentagon and the New York Stock Exchange. Other targets of the attack included the National Security Agency, Homeland Security Department, State Department, the Nasdaq stock market ...".

--R]]>