-osgo-

Clock Is Ticking for U.S. Equity REITS - Fitch

Yes, SRS was down no less than 18% in one day earlier this week, quite the haircut. Yet from everything I read, everyone is predicting doom in CRE.

Tough call, as contrarians point out that CRE loans are written to a much higher standard, and then there's the "Don't Bet Against the Fed" argument.

While I can't predict the future, I can make some decent observations if I go for a drive. And oh, my lumbar guy says plywood sheets are getting hard to find since they're the same ones used to board up CRE windows. Go figure. DD through my lumbar guy/wife's garden guy. Worx for me!

-osgo




On Apr 04 08:34 AM capital pains wrote:

> Earlier this week there was an excellent article in Alpha on the
> coming debacle in commercial real estate.
> Seems that an excellent way to bet against commercial r.e. is buying
> the ETF which is "SRS" .. Had anyone bought the SRS early last week,
> the buyer would have been slaughtered ..As the SRS price went down
> approx $14 ..Ouch !
> Also, another stock which mirrors the commercial end is "SPG" the
> major mall owner. Contrary to investors opinion, SPG had a fabulous
> week !! The puts on SPG were decimated as well.
> Hence, with all the agreement on the coming commercial crash, the
> market just seems to be sweeping up any and every dog each day. As
> much as the consensus agrees here, the timing seems premature...Wait
> for a train wreck or two, then get on for the ride .