-osgo-

Today in Commodities: The Perfect Game

Don't forget the risk-premium on fuels right now (Iran); I'm of the opinion that that's the only thing propping up oil & gas.

From a nature/forecast perspective, gas/kerosene/heating oil oughta be a nice long play later on this year and next. Check out the sunspot activity (yes, really) -- we're entering a cold period, and statistically this has created "Little Ice Ages" with ensuing colder temperatures (and need for propane/natgas/heating oil).

Add Venezuela going ape%$#@ in defense of Iran should the Israeli's attack and we'll see commodities skyrocket in flight, no afternoon delight, folks. The time frame is spot-on.

-osgo

New U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Displacing Canadian Gas

One thing I love about living in Japan was seeing how they employ CNG and LNG to power basic transportation. Not only can you usually eat off the floor of a Japanese taxi, you also notice that the thing runs on LNG/CNG and the exhaust is negligible. Think of the millions of belching taxi's u see worldwide...then imagine if a country powered them with clean fuels...Japan does this, and the air quality has improved dramatically...this from the land that gave us the movie, "The Smog Monster..."

Most p/u's are perfect for conversion. This is a resource we have. And while LNG terminals are a terrorist's dream, to think of the terror imposed by gov't hostile to us, especially in an emergency...is an exceedingly dire threat to me.

Why we aren't exploiting this more is beyond me. But then again, the prospect of 11% unemployment hitting my generation was an astounding thought even a year ago.

-osgo

A Mid-Year Look at My 2009 Predictions

Can you please explain your hypothesis on, "Prices for gold and silver have been less impressive than the inventory levels, but the metals have finished up odd-numbered years very strongly in this decade, so $1,150 and $20 are do-able."

Odd-numbered years? That's quite odd indeed! When did roulette rules take precedence in forecasting?

With Commercial Real Estate's Bleak Outlook, Tread Lightly

Is there any other info? What's so screwed about the environment is that in a normal time, SRS would be sky high. Basic assumptions about economic activity have been thrown out the window because of the bail-outs. What should be a screaming buy has become a wealth-destroyer...Eve... You Know Is Wrong and it's not the Fed but the Ministry of Love.

What other reasons are holding it down [SRS]? Elucidation please?

-osgo


On May 23 10:25 AM jdl51 wrote:

> I keep hearing about the commercial real estate crash but SRS keeps
> falling and is near its low. Someone is driving the commercial REITS
> up.

Rare Market Indicator Sighting: T2108 Over 90%

What the author clearly missed reporting on was when T2108 comes back into town, and not nec. in May...this thing is gonna be so mad it may take out the NYSE, NASDAQ, and that fruit market down the way that's way too loud Saturday mornings. Especially today with my hangover.

Remember the Terminator argument: Sophisticated technology carries an amount of existential risk which should be avoided by slowing or stopping the advance of technology.

There, take that, T2108 statistics!

-osgo

Clock Is Ticking for U.S. Equity REITS - Fitch

Yes, SRS was down no less than 18% in one day earlier this week, quite the haircut. Yet from everything I read, everyone is predicting doom in CRE.

Tough call, as contrarians point out that CRE loans are written to a much higher standard, and then there's the "Don't Bet Against the Fed" argument.

While I can't predict the future, I can make some decent observations if I go for a drive. And oh, my lumbar guy says plywood sheets are getting hard to find since they're the same ones used to board up CRE windows. Go figure. DD through my lumbar guy/wife's garden guy. Worx for me!

-osgo




On Apr 04 08:34 AM capital pains wrote:

> Earlier this week there was an excellent article in Alpha on the
> coming debacle in commercial real estate.
> Seems that an excellent way to bet against commercial r.e. is buying
> the ETF which is "SRS" .. Had anyone bought the SRS early last week,
> the buyer would have been slaughtered ..As the SRS price went down
> approx $14 ..Ouch !
> Also, another stock which mirrors the commercial end is "SPG" the
> major mall owner. Contrary to investors opinion, SPG had a fabulous
> week !! The puts on SPG were decimated as well.
> Hence, with all the agreement on the coming commercial crash, the
> market just seems to be sweeping up any and every dog each day. As
> much as the consensus agrees here, the timing seems premature...Wait
> for a train wreck or two, then get on for the ride .

What Happens When You Hold Leveraged ETFs for More than One Day?

Phantasmagorical, masturbatory math theories aside, all I can say is that I started trading these 2x-3x funds in September/Oct, and was able to confirm my shorts contained Brownian concepts, indeed, my wife tends to complain about them.

Yet when the days are done, and I think back to how I started with about $550 in an experiment, and now have 8x that...all without margin...in cash...on a lark...taking into account the three day rule,
I thank the Rydex and Direxion folks every day.

Note that I remained fixed at my computer for nearly 4 months, in my lucky bathrobe, recovering from surgery with a 4yr old accosting me with 'presents' found in the backyard.

It can be done. It's not for the faint. Yet the rewards can be spectacular.

-osgo

The Up-Tick Rule Reimplementation Is Bad for Markets

You folks would be very surprised at how quickly an IM can spread mayhem, disinformation and ultimately become an arbiter for heinous stock manipulation. By its very ease, so would be enforcement -- as an infosec professional, curtailing these comms isn't simple, but it is doable, and implementation of a no IM policy amongst traders would be a step in the right direction.

A Speculative Way to Play the Oil Bubble

Actually, all indicators show this ETF will go up quite nicely, especially as most think oil (at least this month) is headed down, you have the Saudi's Big Meeting on Monday to help lower the price and
market factors that are simply screaming for the price of crude to go down.

This is almost gambling...and very speculative...you could go BOHICA...but on the speculative side, if oil goes near $120, and u sell by the 25th...someone could make a lot of duckets.

I'm in...


On Jun 17 09:48 AM Michael Filloon (legmaker) wrote:

> At this point you are right Georealist, I think you can short DCR
> into the ground as this ETF will go to zero on the 24th.
>
>
> On Jun 02 06:05 PM Georealist wrote:
>
> > On the surface all of this seems reasonable..until you dig a little.

>
> > DCR would be inferior, in my opinion, to simply using DUG (ProShares

>
> > Ultra Short Oil & Gas)...IF you are positing a drop in oil (and
> it's
> > very likely if oil drops 20% nat gas will trail alongside) then
> why
> > the halfway attempt to take advantage. It's alomost inconceivable

>
> > that nat gas would continue to rise in a strongly corrective environment..since

>
> > it stands roughly in relationship to oil as silver does to gold.

>
> >
> > I suppose it would have been above and beyond to actually see your

>
> > reasoning behind a possible near term decline (which is very likely)

>
> > but that is hoping for a bit much.
> > By the by..there was no need to go into the lengthy nonsense about

>
> > UCR...giving some insight into what the market move translates
> into
> > and the REASON that has such a dramatic effect on refiners would