-osgo-'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/213073/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/151610-today-in-commodities-the-perfect-game?source=feed#comment-604779 604779
From a nature/forecast perspective, gas/kerosene/heating oil oughta be a nice long play later on this year and next. Check out the sunspot activity (yes, really) -- we're entering a cold period, and statistically this has created "Little Ice Ages" with ensuing colder temperatures (and need for propane/natgas/heating oil).

Add Venezuela going ape%$#@ in defense of Iran should the Israeli's attack and we'll see commodities skyrocket in flight, no afternoon delight, folks. The time frame is spot-on.

-osgo]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 08:52:54 -0400
From a nature/forecast perspective, gas/kerosene/heating oil oughta be a nice long play later on this year and next. Check out the sunspot activity (yes, really) -- we're entering a cold period, and statistically this has created "Little Ice Ages" with ensuing colder temperatures (and need for propane/natgas/heating oil).

Add Venezuela going ape%$#@ in defense of Iran should the Israeli's attack and we'll see commodities skyrocket in flight, no afternoon delight, folks. The time frame is spot-on.

-osgo]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147797-new-u-s-natural-gas-pipeline-displacing-canadian-gas?source=feed#comment-580439 580439
Most p/u's are perfect for conversion. This is a resource we have. And while LNG terminals are a terrorist's dream, to think of the terror imposed by gov't hostile to us, especially in an emergency...is an exceedingly dire threat to me.

Why we aren't exploiting this more is beyond me. But then again, the prospect of 11% unemployment hitting my generation was an astounding thought even a year ago.

-osgo]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:57:00 -0400
Most p/u's are perfect for conversion. This is a resource we have. And while LNG terminals are a terrorist's dream, to think of the terror imposed by gov't hostile to us, especially in an emergency...is an exceedingly dire threat to me.

Why we aren't exploiting this more is beyond me. But then again, the prospect of 11% unemployment hitting my generation was an astounding thought even a year ago.

-osgo]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146138-a-mid-year-look-at-my-2009-predictions?source=feed#comment-568116 568116
Odd-numbered years? That's quite odd indeed! When did roulette rules take precedence in forecasting?]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:38:20 -0400
Odd-numbered years? That's quite odd indeed! When did roulette rules take precedence in forecasting?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139247-with-commercial-real-estate-s-bleak-outlook-tread-lightly?source=feed#comment-515570 515570
What other reasons are holding it down [SRS]? Elucidation please?

-osgo


On May 23 10:25 AM jdl51 wrote:

> I keep hearing about the commercial real estate crash but SRS keeps
> falling and is near its low. Someone is driving the commercial REITS
> up.]]> Sat, 23 May 2009 15:10:22 -0400
What other reasons are holding it down [SRS]? Elucidation please?

-osgo


On May 23 10:25 AM jdl51 wrote:

> I keep hearing about the commercial real estate crash but SRS keeps
> falling and is near its low. Someone is driving the commercial REITS
> up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130455-rare-market-indicator-sighting-t2108-over-90?source=feed#comment-459849 459849
Remember the Terminator argument: Sophisticated technology carries an amount of existential risk which should be avoided by slowing or stopping the advance of technology.

There, take that, T2108 statistics!

-osgo]]> Sat, 11 Apr 2009 11:52:24 -0400
Remember the Terminator argument: Sophisticated technology carries an amount of existential risk which should be avoided by slowing or stopping the advance of technology.

There, take that, T2108 statistics!

-osgo]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129385-clock-is-ticking-for-u-s-equity-reits-fitch?source=feed#comment-451929 451929
Tough call, as contrarians point out that CRE loans are written to a much higher standard, and then there's the "Don't Bet Against the Fed" argument.

While I can't predict the future, I can make some decent observations if I go for a drive. And oh, my lumbar guy says plywood sheets are getting hard to find since they're the same ones used to board up CRE windows. Go figure. DD through my lumbar guy/wife's garden guy. Worx for me!

-osgo




On Apr 04 08:34 AM capital pains wrote:

> Earlier this week there was an excellent article in Alpha on the
> coming debacle in commercial real estate.
> Seems that an excellent way to bet against commercial r.e. is buying
> the ETF which is "SRS" .. Had anyone bought the SRS early last week,
> the buyer would have been slaughtered ..As the SRS price went down
> approx $14 ..Ouch !
> Also, another stock which mirrors the commercial end is "SPG" the
> major mall owner. Contrary to investors opinion, SPG had a fabulous
> week !! The puts on SPG were decimated as well.
> Hence, with all the agreement on the coming commercial crash, the
> market just seems to be sweeping up any and every dog each day. As
> much as the consensus agrees here, the timing seems premature...Wait
> for a train wreck or two, then get on for the ride .]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 20:16:20 -0400
Tough call, as contrarians point out that CRE loans are written to a much higher standard, and then there's the "Don't Bet Against the Fed" argument.

While I can't predict the future, I can make some decent observations if I go for a drive. And oh, my lumbar guy says plywood sheets are getting hard to find since they're the same ones used to board up CRE windows. Go figure. DD through my lumbar guy/wife's garden guy. Worx for me!

-osgo




On Apr 04 08:34 AM capital pains wrote:

> Earlier this week there was an excellent article in Alpha on the
> coming debacle in commercial real estate.
> Seems that an excellent way to bet against commercial r.e. is buying
> the ETF which is "SRS" .. Had anyone bought the SRS early last week,
> the buyer would have been slaughtered ..As the SRS price went down
> approx $14 ..Ouch !
> Also, another stock which mirrors the commercial end is "SPG" the
> major mall owner. Contrary to investors opinion, SPG had a fabulous
> week !! The puts on SPG were decimated as well.
> Hence, with all the agreement on the coming commercial crash, the
> market just seems to be sweeping up any and every dog each day. As
> much as the consensus agrees here, the timing seems premature...Wait
> for a train wreck or two, then get on for the ride .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127744-what-happens-when-you-hold-leveraged-etfs-for-more-than-one-day?source=feed#comment-451010 451010
Yet when the days are done, and I think back to how I started with about $550 in an experiment, and now have 8x that...all without margin...in cash...on a lark...taking into account the three day rule,
I thank the Rydex and Direxion folks every day.

Note that I remained fixed at my computer for nearly 4 months, in my lucky bathrobe, recovering from surgery with a 4yr old accosting me with 'presents' found in the backyard.

It can be done. It's not for the faint. Yet the rewards can be spectacular.

-osgo]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 13:13:14 -0400
Yet when the days are done, and I think back to how I started with about $550 in an experiment, and now have 8x that...all without margin...in cash...on a lark...taking into account the three day rule,
I thank the Rydex and Direxion folks every day.

Note that I remained fixed at my computer for nearly 4 months, in my lucky bathrobe, recovering from surgery with a 4yr old accosting me with 'presents' found in the backyard.

It can be done. It's not for the faint. Yet the rewards can be spectacular.

-osgo]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128355-the-up-tick-rule-reimplementation-is-bad-for-markets?source=feed#comment-444476 444476 Sun, 29 Mar 2009 18:27:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79501-a-speculative-way-to-play-the-oil-bubble?source=feed#comment-188873 188873 market factors that are simply screaming for the price of crude to go down.

This is almost gambling...and very speculative...you could go BOHICA...but on the speculative side, if oil goes near $120, and u sell by the 25th...someone could make a lot of duckets.

I'm in...


On Jun 17 09:48 AM Michael Filloon (legmaker) wrote:

> At this point you are right Georealist, I think you can short DCR
> into the ground as this ETF will go to zero on the 24th.
>
>
> On Jun 02 06:05 PM Georealist wrote:
>
> > On the surface all of this seems reasonable..until you dig a little.

>
> > DCR would be inferior, in my opinion, to simply using DUG (ProShares

>
> > Ultra Short Oil & Gas)...IF you are positing a drop in oil (and
> it's
> > very likely if oil drops 20% nat gas will trail alongside) then
> why
> > the halfway attempt to take advantage. It's alomost inconceivable

>
> > that nat gas would continue to rise in a strongly corrective environment..since

>
> > it stands roughly in relationship to oil as silver does to gold.

>
> >
> > I suppose it would have been above and beyond to actually see your

>
> > reasoning behind a possible near term decline (which is very likely)

>
> > but that is hoping for a bit much.
> > By the by..there was no need to go into the lengthy nonsense about

>
> > UCR...giving some insight into what the market move translates
> into
> > and the REASON that has such a dramatic effect on refiners would]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 00:00:43 -0400 market factors that are simply screaming for the price of crude to go down.

This is almost gambling...and very speculative...you could go BOHICA...but on the speculative side, if oil goes near $120, and u sell by the 25th...someone could make a lot of duckets.

I'm in...


On Jun 17 09:48 AM Michael Filloon (legmaker) wrote:

> At this point you are right Georealist, I think you can short DCR
> into the ground as this ETF will go to zero on the 24th.
>
>
> On Jun 02 06:05 PM Georealist wrote:
>
> > On the surface all of this seems reasonable..until you dig a little.

>
> > DCR would be inferior, in my opinion, to simply using DUG (ProShares

>
> > Ultra Short Oil & Gas)...IF you are positing a drop in oil (and
> it's
> > very likely if oil drops 20% nat gas will trail alongside) then
> why
> > the halfway attempt to take advantage. It's alomost inconceivable

>
> > that nat gas would continue to rise in a strongly corrective environment..since

>
> > it stands roughly in relationship to oil as silver does to gold.

>
> >
> > I suppose it would have been above and beyond to actually see your

>
> > reasoning behind a possible near term decline (which is very likely)

>
> > but that is hoping for a bit much.
> > By the by..there was no need to go into the lengthy nonsense about

>
> > UCR...giving some insight into what the market move translates
> into
> > and the REASON that has such a dramatic effect on refiners would]]>