Capitalist Cow

Stock Screen: Price Momentum + Fundamentals = Profits

It is a very large Excel spreadsheet.

Are VIX Futures Signaling End of Year Slump?

VIX participants aren’t necessarily expecting a decline in the S&P, just an increase in the extrinsic value of SPX options. The VIX could spike and the market could go higher. In the late 1990’s the VIX was over 40 while the market was pushing higher. VIX traders are just expecting an increase in Volatility.

A pickup in the VIX is usually correlated with a decline in the S&P. But it could just be the market expecting: Fannie or Freddie failure, Lehman failing, or an encounter with Russia.

Abbottmd, some indicators work others don't. Nothing is certain.

Cash Is King: Accrual Earnings Stock Screen

Aalan,

I have found no screeners that have the Accrual Ratio as a a criteria, but this does not mean that you screen for it. You need to find a screener that allows you to create equations with balance sheet items.

I use Reuters Knowledge, but this is not free.

I understand your point, but it is possible to perform the ratio manually on a stock by stock basis. Good Luck!

-Mark

Buying Healthcare Stocks for an Obama Presidency (Part III)

Bearfund,

What evidence do you cite for your argument that government will have a large impact of the success or failure of these private firms? And do you feel that this is not priced into the equities currently trading at historically low valuations?

Sure, government may be large purchasers of good from different industries, but when has government ever intentionally put an entire industry out of business. This is anything but the American way.

Where do you get your forecast for a societal collapse? One of the most critical flaws and highlights of democracy is that it is slow to move. Look at the multiple attempts to reform Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Look at the current hot button issue, energy prices. Has there been any progress toward making meaning change? And this is when 80% of Americans want offshore drilling.

How likely do you think it is that Congress will get enough momentum to make a healthcare reform which is clearly a poor economic decision?

Buying Healthcare Stocks for an Obama Presidency (Part III)

J. Chris,

I speak to this in my past article located at capitalistcow.com/2008.../

I am arguing that a political culture shift will not occur, or Obama is no different than any other divisive politician. You assume the will exists in Washington to accomplish a task of this magnitude.

It has been very difficult to accomplish any reform in congress over the past 15 years. I look to the first attempt at healthcare reform, social security reform, immigration reform, and more recently energy policy. This is likely to continue with a 49-49 political party deadlock in the Senate and the small 236-199 democratically led House.

Do feel that there will be a new culture of progress in Washington, which will allow major reforms to get past?

Fantasy vs. Reality in Financial Ratios

You bring up a good point and one that is often missed by commentators and investors. Ratio are not depressed for arbitrary reasons. Just because a stock is cheap doesn't mean it wont get cheaper.

Do Dividend Stocks Underperform the Market?

It seems like the key is to buying dividend paying stocks because they "keep you in the game". But at the same time don't buy dividend paying stocks which have a large yield becasue of a fundamentally depressed stock (GM, C, BCS,)

Buying Healthcare Stocks for an Obama Presidency (Part II)

RightinSanFrancisco,

You need to separate campaign promises from what is most likely to happen. Every election season we hear large promises. When someone gets into the office, they realize you can’t do everything and there are sometimes more pressing issues than what you campaigned for.

At this point in the campaign, no one is talking about how they are going to pay for their plans. Why would he not increase the percentage paid from payroll taxes? This would be the easiest to accomplish as it would world within the current framework? - creating a new tax framework to tax health care companies would be extremely difficult to do, as in 1992.

Yahoo Re-elects Directors As Stock Sinks to Six-Month Low

Yes, this is sad. It seems everyone who could push for change at Yahoo is out of the picture. Boone Pickens sold his shares. Microsoft said they were done with Yahoo and Carl Ichan has failed in his effots.

Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction'

I thank all of you for your responses, I have enjoyed reading all of them. This was my first Seeking Alpha post and after spur such a debate I look forward to posting more. Before I do, I feel the need to clarify a few items I believe some readers took out of context.

Many readers took the article to mean that I was calling for oil to go back down to $10 per barrel. In fact, I do agree with most of you that we will probably not see that level again. Instead I was simply pointing out that after the significant run that we have had, we are likely to see a pull back or stagnation in oil prices, mainly due to slowing growth concerns. We are already seeing this, or so I believe.

I do agree with User 202445 who said “growth is still growth”, but let's keep in mind that oil futures price in the expected future price of oil. If these current prices reflect 5% global growth and global economics change to expect 3% growth, do you not feel that oil will price in the lower 3% growth in demand?

But to restate my main point, prices don't rise forever. Although oil prices are very inelastic, consumer habits can changes, alternatives can be found, and more oil can be drilled.