chtrplyr

The Market Is Improving, Cancel the Coffin

Forward P/E's are really low on many of the big names right now and they are trading at or way below book value.

JPM 8.62 x
WFC 6.95 x
BAC 3.16 x
USB 7.65 x
C 8.24 x
BK 8.99 x
GS 8.73 x
TRV 7.41 x
V 17.53 x
AXP 9.67 x
AFL 4.11 x
MER N/A
STT 5.92 x
PNC 6.68 x
CB 8.12 x

Why It's Time to Overhaul the Banking System

We also need to wipe out all the "dead" defense contractors and all the "bailout" money 100's of defense contractor companies get annually.

The continual defense contractor bailouts with tax payer money just foster waste, incompetance, poor performance and are a black hole for tax payer money.

Let the whole industry die and the few last remaining might be competitive and profitable.

Banking never needed anual government handouts and provided a much needed service over the history of the U.S.

Then we go after the agricultural industry next.

It's a Great Time to Be an Inflationista

Actually the Bush and Reagan terms ran up the national debt the most. I guess you say borrow and spend is good...?

Residential Real Estate: How Much More Pain?

so far it is at 165 or so we shall see...

Three Areas of Opportunity for the Bold

I have been able to short SKF previously in Sept but lately ameritrade always reports no shares available. shorting skf gives a bit more profits it does seem.

Residential Real Estate: How Much More Pain?

I think this article does not apply a very good fundamental predictive valuation analysis of real property (considering rising rising rents and U.S. population) nor look at the long term appreciation trend in limited resources (land and water resources) nor the increase in amenities in today's housing. (You would pay more for 1.25 Ounces of Gold than 1 Ounce of Gold wouldn't you?)

I bet the 20 state composite case-shiller currently at 167 or so never gets below 160 - about 5% further to the bottom and that the author's 10%-15% further reductions nationwide is an exaggeration.

Fear Not Yet a Factor

Where have all these scum sucking short sellers came from recently? What large rock were they all hiding under? No substance that is for sure in the general fear mongering dribble. and so backwards looking too. They want everyone to sell all equities and short them - what does that accomplish besides destroying the U.S. Is that the goal - is not like they are investing in solutions or the U.S. just full of all their B.S. allegations and paranoid delusions...

Bank Insiders Made Out Like Bandits

BAC has almost all buys in 2008. Backwards looking assessment here that is for sure. and like others have pointed out insider holdings were increasing as "sells" were used to cover taxes. Very misleading!

Financial Downgrades Down Markets - Fast Money Recap (8/19/08)

Thanks to Pete Najarian for hyping the puts - I love selling them!

Wednesday Options Update: MER, BAC, FNM, AMGN, AMLN, LLY, MEA, GE

Many put bag holders losing money again on BAC. Thank you put buyers I love selling them short and booking 100% profit. Can't believe people will pay $2+ for a Sept. 27.50 put on BAC. Fools and their money are soon parted. This trade is an equity killer.

Financials and Housing: The Outlook Remains Ugly

Doesn't seem like a complete analysis i doubt we will see a full 1% drop for another 12 months at the rate that that S&P index went parabolic down and now has steadied out at 2003/2004 levels - many factors to consider including the amenities and quality added to the homes over time as well as zoning and other water resource issues as well a replacement costs.

Also painting all 'financials' with the same brush is a mistake some modeled and provisioned for much higher peak to trough housing value declines and over all economic conditions.

Without going through loss severity impacts and doing so without being biased and over emphasizing all negative impacts and ignoring positive impacts (housing bill, credits etc.) like this article did a very distorted 'gloom and doom' picture arrived however it might just be all smoke and mirrors of the negativity crowd as their negativity bubble collapses.

An Evaluation of the SEC’s Prohibition on Naked Short Selling

I think the ban on naked short selling was extremely positive and much needed

'Panics Do Not Destroy Capital'

To be blunt - if you don't even know the provisioning levels/forecasting models of the companies you bash and trash how do you determine they are in an unenviable position? You might be underestimating someone like Ken Lewis of BofA who cut his teeth as a credit analyst and has a company that has managed very well through some conservative reserve building, and obviously navigated much better than you had expected judging by some of the short positions you took. A good read of the provisioning would be in order and then some basic DDM valuation modeling before you jump to the conclusion that everything financial is over-valued carte blanche.

The fact that more people will be using CC's for a while and re-learning how to manage their finances is not necessarily a bad thing for BofA

Another Leg Down for Financials Is Coming

Author forgets some crucial facts...


BoFA/CFC Option Arms Prime Loan exposure

$25B total Option ARM prime loans
$17B covered by supplemental mortgage insurance

Borrowers credit scores still good -> Prime Loans
----------------------...
Average original FICO score 715
Average refreshed FICO score 680

88% current in payments and in good standing.

Reset schedule:
2009 $0.2B
2010 $3.8B
2011 $6.9B
Thereafter $2.4B
Loans assumed to repay before recast $9.6B

Current refreshed LTV with provisioning = 70

30% down (positive equity)

Housing bill to aid $300 billion in mortgages...
----------------------...
Loss severity will be minimal to BofA related to Option Arm's exposure given the current provisioning.


"CLTV computed off remaining balances. If computed from values after purchase accounting adjustments the average CLTV percentage for the portfolio would be in the low 70's."

'Panics Do Not Destroy Capital'

looks like the authors puts have done poorly - you have to wonder why these guys can do fundamental research on the stocks they bash...