chtrplyr

Residential Real Estate: How Much More Pain?

so far it is at 165 or so we shall see...

Residential Real Estate: How Much More Pain?

I think this article does not apply a very good fundamental predictive valuation analysis of real property (considering rising rising rents and U.S. population) nor look at the long term appreciation trend in limited resources (land and water resources) nor the increase in amenities in today's housing. (You would pay more for 1.25 Ounces of Gold than 1 Ounce of Gold wouldn't you?)

I bet the 20 state composite case-shiller currently at 167 or so never gets below 160 - about 5% further to the bottom and that the author's 10%-15% further reductions nationwide is an exaggeration.

Financials and Housing: The Outlook Remains Ugly

Doesn't seem like a complete analysis i doubt we will see a full 1% drop for another 12 months at the rate that that S&P index went parabolic down and now has steadied out at 2003/2004 levels - many factors to consider including the amenities and quality added to the homes over time as well as zoning and other water resource issues as well a replacement costs.

Also painting all 'financials' with the same brush is a mistake some modeled and provisioned for much higher peak to trough housing value declines and over all economic conditions.

Without going through loss severity impacts and doing so without being biased and over emphasizing all negative impacts and ignoring positive impacts (housing bill, credits etc.) like this article did a very distorted 'gloom and doom' picture arrived however it might just be all smoke and mirrors of the negativity crowd as their negativity bubble collapses.